Why is news/fundamental trading so hit and miss?

Is the news a reliable way to decide whether or not to place a trade ?

The million dollar question :slight_smile:

At some level, isn’t trading news essentially trading what you think price will do, rather than what you see it doing?

If some news emerges and the big players think its good, price will rise as they buy. But if you think its good and they don’t, price will not rise. So what sort of business plan would rely on on some private retail trader being smarter than all the big banks combined?

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Not for retail forex traders, no. This thread explains why: What is your strategy to trade during News

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I’d think that trading the news can be profitable as long as you don’t make predictions before the news, follow the trend and a reasonable stop/loss with high pip win ratio can be good, IMO.

Then aren’t you really trading price? It sounds like trend-following. Or maybe momentum trading.

Yeah, I do say you are right.

If my win rate ratio increases and risk/reward is aligned, I’ll go with whatever situation possible :grin:.

As long as you can put your stop loss that minimises your losses and have a win rate ratio that is greater than 50%, I’d say in the long run, you’ll be profitable.

One would certainly think so, looking at it logically.

But appearances can be very, very deceptive, and unfortunately that isn’t how it works, because of the ways that counterparty brokers use it as an opportunity to take profits, and that’s why retail forex trading and news trading are pretty much mutually exclusive activities.

You can have a good run with it for a while, but it’s dreadfully risky and eventually there’ll be an accident, because news trading is the commonest time that stop-losses aren’t honoured because the market may not even trade at all at your stop-loss setting.

It’s very easy to get the overall direction right and still lose a lot of money because of spikes in both directions.

Reading the thread that LaughingCharlie links to, above, really will help you, Ben.

Success at news trading, for retail forex traders, is illusory and temporary.

That’s one of the reasons why there’s such a high turnover of retail forex traders gaining their experience so expensively.

And you’d honestly be terribly, terribly wrong in your impression. Sorry! Nobody is criticizing you for your inexperience, but your inexperience is showing. :wink:

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One thing this guy says is trade the momentum not the news.

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Traders should avoid placing an order the time of the release of a significant economic indicator, for example U.S. non-farm payroll report, as it will be a high volatility slightly before and after the event.

This gives a good example of how to trade the NFP. It also justifies why you should wait and indicates that its best to place the trade a few candlesticks after the news.

Probably no due to the volitility produced during the news. There are also two other components to consider. One is technique. Apply the wrong technique and trading the news can be devastating to your account balance. The other is the interpretation of the news. One might think good news bullish and bad news is bearish. But that is not always true.

If the market anticipates good news and the market bids uo the price prior to the announcement and then the news is good as anticipated the price can actually go down. This happends because those who got in prior are closing trades and taking profits.

@Traderjohnsblog

Is that what happened here ?

This is the 15 min chart the huge drop in price is when the Bank of England announced the interest rate at 12:00 GMT.

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Likely. But there is more to learn from this chart. Obviously there is a big leg down. I am assuming that it was accompanied with increased volitility. Watch price consolidating at the bottom. This consolidation is a potential trading opportunity.

Price will break out of this consolidation and either continue downward or price is oversold and return to the center of the trading range. If you look at the larger TF for general market bias and then look at a smaller TF (5 min ) for example you will lilely see an entry signal in normal volatility condotions.

You can make good money if you trade during the news that have a ‘high’ impact. It’s real risky though. My mentor trades with a system during these times, so that helps him out a lottt.

Thank you for your insightful explanation, I do remember reading it somewhere where brokers have put in their fine print that stop-loss during non-normal market decisions can potentially be unhonoured.

I have always interpreted it as only during occasions such as GFC or dot.com bubble, so it relates to high alert news also? U.S tax reform news and the previously Bank of England interest rate change hype?

That’s an interesting chart @Trendsareus - The Quid (GBP) was decling at a 45 degree angle for 4.5 hours before the news - 45 degrees is quite steep and implies to me a “purpose, but without panic” It seems some were expecting a move on the news. When the news came, it was positive but uninspiring. That first up-bar without panic, implies profit taking to me, no wick, no tail on the candle may be noteworthy. The next bar was a Shoot up as some new money (I believe) took their lead from the first move and came rushing in, to be met with sell orders from those who had just taken their stage 1 profit. Further sells as the “mug buys” covered and further knowledgeable money came in short. for stage 2.

Problem is a 15 minute chart of a news event is way too big to see what really went on - 1 minute is better to capture the emotions of the moment - and make no mistake, if we rule out “Collusion in the market” (well do we ? ) - then the whole move is driven by emotion. In either case @tommor says above ; that this may be an oportubiy to go long, in expectation of a market recovery. That is a fairly low risk strategy, which could be adopted with a reasonably short stop - loss.

[Edit - Sorry I was misrepresenting the advice, it wasn’t Tommor, it was @Traderjohnsblog (it wast the “T” confused me) - Sorry again i valid, lowish risk strategy :sunglasses: ]

I was actually listening to the Bloomberg radio about this event, The interest rate hike was met with skepticism because of how the UK economy was growing as an economy, low economic growth which will put borrowers (possibly small business owners at a higher default rate due to interest rates and job cuts) and yes higher interest rates usually is a way to combat inflation and increase earnings from savings in banks.

What we know in theory is that interest rate hikes should be good for the economy because foreign investments might come in and be good for savers, but the overall economy hasn’t been doing well and by implementing more cost to the actual people in that economy itself where most people are struggling to meet ends meat. What ripple effect will that have? Forex is about investing in economies that are stronger than their counterpart, which wouldn’t be the case if there was an interest rate hike.

Also, did you know bankers will instantly increase their interest rate hikes for borrowers and wait a while to implement saver’s interest rate hikes?

This is my two cent.

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Bloomberg are Great at what they do - I used to watch Bloomberg TV throughout my trades 15 years ago - It is incredibly emotional - Even the music increased the tension in your brain ! BUT Bloomberg, like ALL other Analysts are Very good at explaining what happend in funadmental terms AFTER the event !

One f the early lessons to learn is not to “Fall for it” - People, supposedly like Warren Buffet invest in fundamentals - most Traders do not, because the leverage and paucity of ability to time the trades do not work like “Investments” (most of us believe) :slight_smile:

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https://www.amazon.co.uk/Grip-Death-Slavery-Destructive-Economics/dp/1897766408?SubscriptionId=AKIAILSHYYTFIVPWUY6Q&tag=duckduckgo-ffnt-uk-21&linkCode=xm2&camp=2025&creative=165953&creativeASIN=1897766408

[Edit - read the reviews and I recommend you to read the book and explain it to your kids ! ]

“Bankers” have great deal to answer for - Like the Crash of 2008 !