Why JPY is growing so much?

If you look at all currencies XXX/JPY you will notice that the past week all the charts are strongly bearish. I’m not so much into news, fundamental analysis but I would like to know why this happened. I searched online for news and some explaination… found nothing. Someone who know well these things could explain to a poor technical analysis head? :slight_smile:

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XXX/JPY pairs are usually very strongly correlated with stocks. Stocks down (as has been the case of late): XXX/JPY down.

So there is a sort of invert correlation between us stock market and JPY currency?

That is actually a good question. I’ve never thought about it that way (I don’t trade FOREX). Maybe a FOREX guru can chime in here. I just know that USDJPY is highly correlated to the stock market (80% currently I seem to remember reading somewhere yesterday or the day before). But the strength of these correlations do vary at times of course. Sometimes they break down altogether. It’s also generally accepted that EURJPY is a proxy for the stock market (not sure I agree too strongly with that but that’s just me). But yeh: good question. And if so: why.

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Both Yen and US dollar are considered safe haven currencies and will be strong during a Stock Market correction like we see right now, CAD, NZD and AUD are considered the risk on currencies and will be strong during a stock market rally. This would all be real simple but then you have the Central Banks ( Federal Reserve in the US) and these knuckleheads can turn all of these correlations upside down, add a trade war, Brexit and you can see the challenges faced by investors today

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Let’s not be that quick with our decisions in that matter, yes they do correlate with stocks, but is it only thing like that does matter ? But also stocks of what have been down ? Do tell me I need that info for sure, please explain something to me;)

I am not a Forex guru, neither do I trade Forex every other
date, but I recently came across an article which said noted that the U.S.
federal reserve may be running out of leeway to further increase rate. The
article also noted that ECB postponing rate increases due to economic growth concerns
in Europe may have played a major part in the yen rising fast

I hope this helps??

The Dow can be regarded as a barometer of risk tolerance in the financial sector as a whole. When the Dow falls seriously, this indicates risk tolerance is falling, as speculative money is being pulled out of US stocks. When US stocks are sold, the vendor receives USD, but that money has to go somewhere. That has to be somewhere safer than the USD, so USD is exchanged for JPY and to a lesser extent CHF.

Right now, conditions are a little more constricted than usual as Brexit is depressing GBP and is certainly not universally beneficial fr the EU, so the EUR is not strong either. This channels even more of the USD than normal in risk reduction times into JPY and CHF. In another year of the calendar, GBP might have benefited somewhat, or even EUR - but not this time.

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Regarding the Yen: why the most indebted nation in the world (debt-to-gdp ratio is 250%) which is on the brink of recession (growth near zero), can be considered as safe currency during the times of risk-aversion?

Every time I ask this question I get answers with very little clue :slight_smile:

Price has nothing to do with value. Most changes in price (and therefore most transactions) in the forex market are purely short-term speculative, nothing to do with importing/exporting, GDP etc. What we’re looking at here is prospects for forex speculators, not prospects for the Japanese nation.

All explanations of the correlation of yen and stocks so far in this thread have been complete bullcrap and shots in the dark :roll_eyes:

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It is true that Japan is country with extremely high debt, but you need to understand structure of this debt. On the other side, its strong economy is based on continuous trade surplus. This is why many investors still believe in holding JPY

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Trust as a country that heavily relies on exporting the Yen doesn’t want to appreciate that much where it’ll be more expensive for its counterparts to do business with. This is more of a safe haven grab with all the underlying risk (trade issues, slight middle east tension, and etc). Which is why you’ve seen the CHF go up and gold skyrocket as investors flock to safe havens to wait and see what happens next. I truly believe once the trade issue quiets down you’ll see the market try to correct some of these moves. Again this is purely an opinion and I can easily be wrong about this. The beauty of this type of market is that we all analyze and have our different perspectives with different educational backgrounds so it makes for a wonderful discussion.

Yes, you’re going to be proven right in time.

When Brexit becomes a known and quantifiable risk and tariff threats and border issues have been resolved and geo-politico-military risks have cooled somewhat in the Gulf and Asian regions, we will see the financial markets taking on more risk than recently. The Dow and USD will gain, CHF and JPY will lose. Gold may lose somewhat, AUD, NZD may gain. Not sure about CAD. GBP or EUR dependent on Brexit terms but neither will gain much: all deals are economically bad for both parties in the foreseeable future.

However it plays out, the traders who lose are the guys who don’t pay attention every open and close. Maybe there are still traders who keep their noses at the grindstone all week and maybe watch the evening TV news Monday to Friday and then look at the business sections of their papers and check their positions on a Sunday and make a note they must do something Monday if they remember. By which time its all too late. Do those types exist still?

I believe these types do exist my friend and they’ll keep on existing. CAD I’m seeing some decent growth though I’m looking to see if their housing market stabilizes and how well oil does for the remaining year, but I’ve been a CAD bull more importantly if it can ratify that bloody USMCA that can help CAD along as well. Like you said when a lot of these things cool down we will see the markets act accordingly and so forth. It’s a bunch of noise in the markets and we all just have to see how things start to panning out. Some of us are just caught up in the short term and not factoring in a longer term view on things.

Smaller alternative to USD which is at-risk more than the JPY (both are at risk-end valuation-wise (cite structural monetary issues) versus other majors) because it’s a larger money supply and is the primary import/export debtor.

A lot of people invest in Japan’s currency as this country has a strong economy. One of the most stable economies