I cant bring much to this discussion (like normal) but I can point you to another MP post where he gives away a few secrets on how to trade these reversals.
This subject strikes me as one of the more important things that a noobie trader needs to grasp in order to really get an edge on the intraday price reversals. I still don’t have it though so I can’t say much more. It’s on my list of things I must learn.
As I was driving home from Atlanta I was trying to think this through and the two questions I have concerning these consistant patterns that show up over time are:
How do the patterns change through the timeframes. It makes sense to me that these intradaily reversals that happen every 1.5 hours are more pronounced on the lower timeframes, but what are the consistant patterns that show up on the daily, weekly and monthly?
Do the rules apply through all 6 major pairs or are there variations for each pair?
I was going to start a thread on this tonight but maybe it is appropriate here and maybe fxelitetrader would have some input?
The above article closes with this line. “Richard L Muehlberg uses linear regression channels and intermarket analysis to daytrade” MP has your cover been blown?
Since I trade at IBFX, which makes it’s own market with liquidity providers, do you think it’s market will follow these time frame stops/slowdowns/reversals from that article?
I was considering since IBFX makes their own market, and it’s a micro account on top of it, it may be like a small pond next to a lake that doesn’t get disturbed and get any ripples from the big fish in the big lake?
I’m intriqued now though. I’ve seen what appeared to be patterns in price movement and time so far. I just assumed (ass you me ya, ha ha) that it was because of overlapping opens and closes and traders piling on as they go up or got off work.
I definitely welcome disagreements since that is how I got to where I am(by going against the norm) but it was just the way phoenix came across by just bluntly saying that I am wrong and while I appreciated his passion in defending his point, I just couldn’t help but feel an air of disrespect. I did not discuss my point any further because I was just trying to point people in the right direction sice I am a firm believer in people traveling the path for themselves rather than just ending up at a particular direction without knowing how they got there. I will definitely post some live trades so I can further explain what it is that I am saying. Let me try to put my point a little differently: In the forex market, the entering and exiting of trades should be based upon time rather than price(even though price can be used effectively at times) since this allows for the trader to gain maximum profit. This can be seen using the chart patterns(not historical chart patterns like double bottom and stuff like that). Yes, still not very clear, but I believe if you are looking in the right place then you should be on your way real soon rather than going on wild goose chases with these dumb down broker lessons.
Good to see this has fallen back on track. To my mind, the original poster’s simple question is the most important one in FX, and I’ve not seen it answered in full, properly, anywhere online.
But to the more recent posts, the effect of time over price is absolutely fundamental in my opinion. GBLilley, wherever he may have gone to, said something that stuck with me - the only essential indicator you need is time, or words to that effect. Too true. FXElite, you sound like someone who’s very fond of auctioning…
MP - let’s have that contest. I’m not challenging you though, don’t fancy losing my shirt! In the past few months, I’ve been keeping an eye out for the [I][B]timing[/B][/I] of reversals, and while I can see them happening, I can’t see them with the frequency you look to - 8, 9.30, 11 etc. I’d love to see some live trades with reasoning… how about it?
they ALL do Phoenix, because the rules are known, the times are known, and the major banks set the lead.
i was trading last nite (well, around 7-11pm, est – which is NOT really trading, LOL) and watched (because it was so slow) as we hit 7:50pm – a few trades went off and then the world simply STOPPED until 8:02 PM.
Please note that i use a brokers charts AND my own subscription service charts with 3 banks feeding me data ---- ALL charts stopped dead in their tracks ---- LOL !
they were HOLDING the ball till 8pm, and then they did it again at 9:30 because they had simply reached support and/or resistance EARLY and now had to hold, making what they were doing EXTREMELY obvious !
as far as fxelite — “hinting” at what you know may be fun, kinda the same as a coquettish and flirting young women might “accidentally” raise her skirts, BUT it does nothing to help those you are talking to.
I know the times, have given out the times, have discussed the times and use the times, so to maintain “legitimacy” here I would suggest you free up some of your valuable information and share it.
now as far as extending the times into much higher timeframes, i honestly dont know — the intraday times simply come from normal observation when i was trading equities, and was certainly picked up during forex trading, BUT, having the attention span of a knat, trying to figure a yearly chart would create volumes of smoke pouring out of my head as my dull brains hit the hard wood of the problem !
But really, I’d be interested to hear what MP thought of the article… Looks like the link was removed, but I think Sandpipper got it from BNET’s website? Futures’s website require you to pay… Great article. I plan on saving it
i wouldnt make it a real bet — simply place my reputation directly on the line to illustrate a point (that assumes i “have” a reputation to put on the line !)
THAT request (live) is SOOOO hard, because you cant see it on the charts (when they HOLD a price and wait to change it when the clock “ticks” over) but it can be seen in a truly live situation, which is a real pain when scalping that reversal also !)
it CAN be seen on charts if you use the one and 5 minute charts and it very often shows up on the 15 min charts also, most definitely at noon, est for example.
i imagine it could be done in chat, as thats a decent set up !
while i couldnt do it realtime, heres eurusd at NOON, EST
lately, the equity traders who have invaded our world are forcing the reverses to happen a bit earlier (few minutes). I believe the banks themselves are reversing earlier to make sure the equities people get the message and stop trading one direction to allow the reverse, otherwise they would continue trading one direction and not allow the normal flows of long and short and long and short ---- etc !
NOW, for no other reason than “compartmentalizing” this information, i would suggest moving this over to my thread (no, i dont get a “pay per click” out of that) since thats the first place i ever talked about the procedure and it remains part of my teachings about the LRC, support and resistance and time based trading !
Statistical models, mathematical and technical analysis and every abstract science can only show you a picture of what has happened in a scenario. Predictions are just subjective, a particular assumption from an individual supporting in those analysis.
Hey [B][I]ThePhoenix[/I][/B]
I just want to congratulate you on the amazing way you beat the crap out of [B]fxelitetrader.[/B]
It’s amazing how people can be so arrogant and how they can live in such a crazy and illusory world.
Keep the good work!
Maths and time? :rolleyes:
hahahahaha
Well it was never my intention to start a fight with him or anything like that. I just wanted to challenge the statment he made and determine if that is what he really meant or something more like what MP brought up. And if that is what he really thought and claimed to trade on with accuracy, some sort of tangible evidence to back the claim up.
If you read my first post to him, you should be able to pick up that I wasn’t quite sure if he wasn’t just making a bad joke to mess with noobs.
Beat the crap out of me? So that is what this forum is all about? Newbs beating the crap out of seasoned traders? I guess that’s why most you will remain where you are. As I have said before, dont make the newbie title under my name fool you into thinking that I am a newbie to trading. For me to illustrate exactly what I am talking about is for to tell my secret which will NEVER EVER happen especially to people like you you guys. I will open up a thread to further illustrate what I am talking about and we will see who have the last laugh…Pathetic and childish! :rolleyes:
lets see here — you intend to open a thread to tell what you know, yet you swear you WILL NEVER reveal what you know !
sorta interesting manner of enticing everyone to run right over to your new thread, dont you think ?
whereas i agree with the little youve put forth about time based trading, i cant find myself agreeing heartily if you wont tell us what it is ---- THAT is sorta a difficult place to put oneself, dontchathink ?
so i look forward to being enticed, but perhaps getting nothing — reminds me of what used to happen when i was dating back in my early teens — a lot of sizzle, but no steak !
your move of course
mp
[B][I]Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !
As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence – BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !![/I][/B]
I will open a thread to further illustrate what I am saying but I will NEVER EVER tell anyone exactly how I trade. My only purpose here is to show people the right direction so they don’t go on wild goose chases but it seems if it’s best if I don’t say anything(it seems people like learning the hard way).
Yes it’s a hard palce to put myself but I’m comfortably there;). Self discovery is the best teaching you could ever have. Also I am here to point people in the right direction, not transport them but I need to prove that I know the way first and that I will do:). I open a thread on everyones favorite pair E/U
. Yes, still not very clear, but I believe if you are looking in the right place then you should be on your way real soon rather than going on wild goose chases with these dumb down broker lessons.