I�d like to know why markets fluctuate? Why currency pairs go down and up? I think if I understand this I�d really take advantage about fundamentals and all that stuff. Thanks for your advices
People are buying and selling. If eveyone keeps selling the pair goes down, if everyone keeps buying it goes up, The ratio of up to down is normally directly proportionate to the buying and selling. More buying causes the price to trend up, more selling causes price to trend down.
There is always a struggle between what buys and sellers think.
They say the trend is your friend. Often when traders notice a trend they tend to go with the trend, which reinforces the trend and causes it to continue.
Often the markets flucuate based on so called big news. Traders respond to news. And often after a big news event it is clear weather that news is good or bad for a certain currency, but sometimes not!
The movement of currency prices have nothing to do with speculation but rather it’s a controlled system that is based on mathematics or can be explained with mathematics. Anytime you see an analyst on tv giving you an amazing story of what the markets are about to do, he got it from his technical analysis.
Hint: Like most things in life, forex operates on time which can be easily seen in chart patterns. It might take you a few years to figure out but it’s worth the time.
Cheers!
I hope your are joking because everything you said in that post is wrong or not quite true. I notice the, “he he,” in front of your post, but the, “hint,” part was pretty much wrong as well.
To answer the op, things that effect price fluctuation of a pair:
- how one currency in a currencies pair is percieved as weak or strong againt the other.
- How many institutional traders (banks AKA 300 pound gorrillas) are trading in a certain direction.
- small traders effect price, but don’t really dent it unless liquidity is very slow, like down to a trickle. Really only going to see this on a micro account on and off day and happen to be trading against only a few other people.
- News. How good or bad or important the news is will move price, somtimes it’s hardly noticeable, sometimes price takes off in one direction.
- Support and resistance levels. Traders tend to enter trades, take profit and stop out at or around support and resistance levels.
There is a whole host of other things as well, but those are the usual suspects that come to mind off the top of my head.
P.S. If you are new it’s easier to make sense of price movment on higher timframes. Work your way down.
My comments are definitely not a joke and I have ample reason to say what I say. I am not a NEWB by any means so don’t assume that because you see it under my screen name. I didnt realize I told you to grade my comment since you feel the need to tell me that I am wrong on everything I said :rolleyes:. Everyone have their unique way of looking at the markets and I am just giving my opinion and not because you don’t agree with me doesnt mean that I am wrong. It’s obvious you see the market from a fundamental perspective and I see it from a technical one…
Happy trading and cheers!
I guess what is obvious isn’t obvious to you. I’m not a fundamental trader. Technically I’m a technical trader who takes fundamentals into consideration.
You can have a unique way if you want…but its wrong. The markets aren’t driven by mathmatical calculations and time. Technical analysis is based on price. Price is driven by many factors. It isn’t put into place by some mathmatical equation or does certain moves at certain time. If it was that predictable everyone that ever traded would be bazillionaire after the first guy figured it out. And it would not take years to figure it out, it would take exactly as long as it took you to look over a years worth of charts, and then you could just go about trading how the market supposedly moved according to the math and time.
The fact that I disagree with you doesn’t make you wrong, the fact that you are wrong makes you wrong.
Ok, it’s obvious you had a bad day or something because it’s obvious I wasnt saying that the market ran on a mathematical equation but rather a mathematical system based on time that is disguised in the chart patterns(cannot be found by just studying charts without understanding the timing). I still don’t expect you to understand what I am saying because am not gonna explain it too deeply, and also it’s people like you who are indoctrinated into how the markets work that will get left behind all the time and probably jump from system to system because you have a one track mind. When you have a system that can make over a 1000 pips per week consistently then you can tell me that I am wrong. Until then take a chill pill because as a trader I am not your peer, and stop telling people how wrong they are because you you disagree :mad:
LOL, I already know what it is you think you are talking about. Things like fibs. The markets don’t move because of calculations based on things like that. The only reason the market stops at those calculations is because everyone is using them and they are self fufilling prophecies.
I don’t make a 1000 pips a week, but I do have a system that gets a me a few hundred consistently. So, I’m doing just find thank you.
Since you want to bring up track records or whatever, hey just point me to “a mathematical system based on time that is disguised in the chart patterns.” I’ll fully admit that I’m wrong and eat my words If I can pin point what you said. I’m not even asking for a way to trade it. Just show me where you think it’s identified and repeats as per time.
Look, I’m not trying to flame you or start an argument. I’m sorry if you take it so personal when someone points out that you are wrong and disagrees with you.
LOL! Fibs? A little learning is a dangerous thing…Lets just agree to disagree because it is obvious from your response that all you know is what you have been told and anything that deviates from that MUST be wrong. Reading a few books about trading has obviously placed you on a high horse of some sort but I have a reality check for you…NO one will ever reveal their true secrets about how they trade if they are very successful and all I was doing is giving a few hints to point people in the right direction. Take it or leave it, you don’t have to agree but to bluntly tell someone that they are wrong when you have no clue is just ridiculous. I think we should end the conversation here because this is not productive and thus not good for the forum.
Happy trading!
I will leave this thread with this.
Yes, I’ve read some books and devoured everything on this site and am trading LIVE successfully for over two months now. What I think I know is based on what I’ve seen happen over time in live trading. That is, based on my short but real experience.
I didn’t ask you for your trading secrets or how to trade. All I asked was it to tell me how to spot these mathmatical movements that corospond to time. (Or however you phrased it). You obviously can’t, otherwise you’d post it here for everyone to see, and then point the finger at me and laugh as you tell me to shut up.
So, prove me wrong. Tell me something to look at that follows your premise, that I can look at my live charts and see happening. I’m not asking for any, “secrets,” (as if there is any) or even how you trade this information you think you can spot. Hell, I’ll even let you narrow it down to one pair.
It is not rediculous, or from a high horse, to point someone out as being wrong when they obviously are.
A few hints are pretty much useless unless you flesh out what you are saying at least a little bit. I don’t know, something to the effect of, "hey look at x hour of the day for x pair it always makes an x movement up or forms this pattern x out of x times. If you are going to make such a bold statment about the market then back it up with some evidence. False uberness and implying that I’m just not experienced enough to know what you are talking about doesn’t help your case.
Ambiguous nonsense alluding to noobs that there is some magical mathmatical forumula based on time that will predict movement, doesn’t help anyone. That will just leave the unwashed setting up a search for a holy grail that doesn’t exsist.
All very nice and informational posts below-
I think that the reason currencies fluctuate are both technical and fundamental-while technical tends to have an effect in a way retail traders trade and buy or sell, it is NOT significant. Fundamentals are what matters more.
Now dont get me wrong, I am not fundamental trader, I use technicals too for trading, but within the light of OP questions, the currencies fluctuate because how a country is perceived by the outside world. and the individuals pairs fluctuate based on many factor, including but not limited to trade deficits, GDP, major political upheavals etc etc. So for example, when US of A announces it is going to cut down interest rate what happens? Yes, you are right, USD gets weaker, trade deficits dont really seem to hurt US dollar(from a short term though), what happens when the Brits GDP goes south, yeah GBP gets weaker and so on. Also if you trade USD you will benefit from looking at what does Dow do-there is a strong relation between newyork SE and the forex market 
We being the technicians, look at the past data and discern where the pair is headed.
Hope that makes sense.
1tex
Wow, talkabout ideological warfare! I’m sure this is not what the OP was looking for. LoL j/k. I’m sure there is SOME truth to what both of you are saying, so just leave it there.
Two months! hahahahahahhah! I can’t believe I was here arguing with someone who has two months of trading under their belt:p…Listen, I don’t post comments to belittle or show up someone and I definitely don’t have to prove anything to you. We will see how much talking you do in 6 months time because I can guarantee that any strategy you are applying now will crumble because it’s obvious you think you know everything. The forex market is a very humbling thing…Get back to me in a few years, you might learn something :rolleyes:
Why is that a suprise? This is a noob forum.
I think you are full of BS. Who have you belittled or showed up? All I’ve seen you do so far is spout pseudo trading theories. I’d even go so far to speculate that you have yet to trade outside of demo accounts.
If you had been trading for years, you sure wouldn’t be here. There isn’t much for long time experienced, and consistently profitable forex traders to learn here.
I guarantee that the strategy I’m using now won’t crumble, because all I’m doing is finding a trend and getting in when it is well established, and getting in at good entry points, with SL and TP set appropriatly. And, I’m getting better at it every day. Check back with me in 6 month I guarantee I will still be trading and most likely my account will be a few K, as I’ve already quadrupled my puny $100 micro account.
No, you don’t have anything to prove to me, because you know the premise you laid out was total fantasy so therfore you have no way of proving it.
For the record I was tottally cordial to you. I just disagreed with what you were saying and said it was wrong, which it is. I then honestly asked you to point me to some evidence of your premise on what moves the market. I even told you I would eat my words and admit that I was tottally wrong.
But, I guess since I’ve only been trading live for 2 months you are allowed to tottally dismiss my disagreeing with you. Since only a noob would do that right.
Maybe instead of trying to act all UBER and trying to imply you know some well kept secrets, you could back up what you claim.
Here we go again! I never said I belittled or showed you up but rather pointing to the fact that I don’t do that. For your information this forum is not for noobs only and I am not here to learn anything but rather to point people in the right direction. Unlike you, I am a seasoned trader who has been making a living doing forex for almost three years and has been trading for over 4 years. As I have said before, judging from your attitude, you will be humbled within the next few months and with all the things said, good luck! :rolleyes:
I�m not sure if are traders who make markets go up and down. I think it depends of some connected markets, which means a great financial market will give patterns for forex market
whereas i rarely disagree with you Phoenix, there is more than sufficient evidence of “time” created movement in the forex world (as well as equities and everything else) and one simply has to stop and take a look. In equities, they even refer to it as the “morning” session and the “afternoon” session !
UNLESS a currency is in a VERY HIGH MOMENTUM MOVEMENT situation, every hour and a half (with a counter move 45 minutes INTO that hour and a half) there is a “change” in direction (NOT TREND) that one can see easily.
have you ever noticed ALL movement stop on a currency for a few minutes — if you look at the clock, you will see the banks are “running the clock” with the prior move (they simply hit support or resistance a bit early that day) and as soon as the clock ticks over the next hour and a half, off they go again, invariably reversing the direction that they had just prior !
while im not sure i follow this poster’s complete logic, THIS PART of it I know to be true, and its what i teach constantly (and since newbs have picked up on it, i gotta figure I’m kinda correct !)
and btw — one CAN come darned close to where a currency is going — its simply not that hard and is do-able with a number of differing methods, of which i use the LRC, support and resistance and fractuals !
to prove the point, let us set up a “contest”, running live, of entries and tp points and see if one can or cannot “nail” a tp point. While short term is rather simple, one can do it for long term also with one caveat ---- it is usually simple enough to hit the tp point, but one cannot always say what day and what hour !
as far as “experienced” traders being on this site, i have to figure i fit into that job description fairly well, but my reason for being here is to “give back” some of what ive been given over the years ---- there is nothing in my life or livelihood that is gained by being with people of equal experience, as there is not much to really say (youll find that out once you reach the point where the trading “thing” is really kinda boring, all said and done !
enjoy and trade well
mp
[B][I]Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !
As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence – BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !![/I][/B]
Hey MP, what you said, yes I am aware of that to certain extent just from watching live charts for the past two months for more hours than I can remember.
My disagreement with fxelitetrader was because what he seemed to imply was that the time/movment corolation was purposely controlled and generated by the broker… “it’s a controlled system that is based on mathematics or can be explained with mathematics.”
He further implied that that world events, traders and new have no effect on how the market moves and that the currency moves based only on the mathematics. That makes absolutely no sense. Unless the broker is just generating random numbers as per, “a controlled system that is based on mathematics or can be explained with mathematics,” so they can get people to trade, then the market wouldn’t move if nothing else made price move.
(FYI, I’m not trying to restart our disagreement fxelitetrader, I’m just explaining to MP why I disagreed with you)
Anyways…I’m working on trend following techniques.
Are there any good books or .pdf files that you can recommend on this time/movment corolation and how best to trade it? I mean one’s that are very specific, not just vauge tips.
FIRST OFF fxelite — ANY experienced trader allows for some disagreement (i certainly get my share) with their methods.
What you are saying is interesting as i am a student of that concept, but i dont see enough explanation to understand exactly what you are saying – perhaps that is my fault and i should re-read every word youve posted.
But anyway, those with experience have a need to have patience also and if a concept is put forth, one should be prepared to explain its precepts with examples, etc.
or as my sainted great grandmother used to say, “you get more unwanted relatives with honey than you do with vinegar !”
as far as books and pdf’s are concerned, I really dont know of any Phoenix — the “concepts” i have come out of observation and having a large clock in front of me at all times (because when i did stocks, reversals occurred at rather apparent times, but forex is like the russian subway — definitely on time !
shucks, i wouldnt know where to begin searching on the topic, although “best trading times”, although vague, might start a decent google search !
if you do, let ME know please ---- although i have a pretty good idea of all of this silliness, its nice to see agreement and someone elses view !
enjoy and trade well
mp
Are there any good books or .pdf files that you can recommend on this time/movment corolation and how best to trade it? I mean one’s that are very specific, not just vauge tips.
Phoenix
I’ve been reading MP’s “Non-secrets” thread with interest… Read his posts about time and market movement within certain time intervals. I squinted at my charts, back to his posts and then back to the charts again. Was about to write a shamefully newbie reply, but saw something profound and decided to sit down, shut up and study a fit further.
And then I got my copy of Futures Magazine (January 2009), and right there on page 36 was an article about time and movement correlation that I was sure had been written by MP himself. I almost even wrote in his thread about it. The article was called “Start late, work hard, quit early” by Richard Muehlberg.