I’m admittedly a simple creature, but what is the difference between using indicators for “probability” vs. “prediction”? The probability of what… something happening in the future, aka “prediction”? Seems to me like saying, “I’m not skinny dipping, I’m swimming naked!”
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Kinda useful thread to scroll through, tbh, thanks for your contribution and answering our questions
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You are welcome Mikey. I can see your mind is open, you will do well.
Those that ridicule and mock still have a longggg way to go 
And there it is folks. My advice to like-minded, inquisitive users out there- the more we post in this thread, the more visibility it’ll get.
If I’m over-stepping my bounds, and you’re preparing a direct answer then please accept my apologies. And, I’d be looking forward to more discussion.
If you’re gonna double-down on the “not gonna answer, instead going to try personal attacks (research ad hominem)” then take a walk.
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Sorry, but I am still struggling to understand just what you are offering here. I am really quite dumb so I am sure it is my failing.
However, you say above:
But are you not Richard Seeley? And did you not write about your methods only one year ago as:
“The Able Method is a proven methodical framework based on price action and technical analysis with a discretionary overlay…!”
Or was that someone else?
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Ok if price action cannot give one the whole picture of trading then what is the the remaining part like what is the main mover of forex trading.
Over the past few years, I’ve been working on transitioning my career from technical into technical sales, and watching sales people operate all day has been quite eye opening. Just my opinion, I don’t like the approach you’ve taken here.
Starts off by triggering cognitive dissonance in the reader with “Pure price action is the sucker at the table”. Reader: “Wait, I’m all about price action! I’m not a sucker! I’d better read this!”
Moves straight into, “You’re being duped. What you’ve been told is wrong, but I have the answer! (since-removed URL to visit for purchase conveniently located in OP”
What is that answer? “Conditions confirmed by indicators, and consistency is important!”
Yeah, and when I put peanut butter on bread and eat it, it’s good! Who knew?
Objections handled by dismissing “They have a looooong way to go”. I guess they haven’t watched enough youtube.
This is a cynical sales approach. It feels scammy because of how you’ve presented it. I agree with others who’ve said the site has an avenue for advertising available. You should pursue it rather than assuming we’re not going to see through what you’re doing.
Believe it or not, we’ve seen this one before.
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Ok, the general attitude in here stinks to be honest. I Haven’t personally attacked anyone, only made a comment in response to ‘Jonny who seems to want to get a reaction’ and he was the one ridiculing and mocking so if that happens I’m entitled to respond.
Your tone could also be less on the sarcastic side too and I don’t care for up front apologies to caveat it.
As you will be well aware as baby pips stalwart I’m limited in my replies as a new user.
I’ve answered and if you be specific with a question I will answer it. Don’t start saying I’m doubling down by not answering and getting all passive aggressive.
One thing for sure it’s really immature in here I feel for the people who are here to learn and not get side tracked in all this immature discourse and attacking people trying to educate.
So far the majority are in attack / defence mode, aligns with the majority that don’t make it as traders, coincidence?
Perhaps if people listened more they may learn something.
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Simple question(s) begging simple answer(s). People will decide for themselves.
For the record, if you were curious you can go through some of my older posts to catch a glimpse of how this exact conversation has played out many times, in this exact way.
If you want the abbreviated version, it’s something like:
I’m smarter than everyone here, pay me.
MY QUESTION TRY 1
Big words.
MY QUESTION TRY 2
Now I’ll attack your character to avoid having to explain why I’m smarter.
MY QUESTION TRY 3
Now I’ll play the victim card to avoid having to explain why I’m smarter.
I asked the same question, 3x (politely) without a simple, direct answer.
Good luck out there and stay safe.
-Jake
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Clearly a mature one here… jeez.
And what point are you attempting to make?
I’m offering free advice…
I can see that sarcasm is popular here… if the focus was on listening more and less point scoring for kicks I think these threads would do better.
To answer your question
The probability of an FX pair hitting your price target before your stop loss.
Preceding that the indicators are confirming things have changed in the market. Now, a sequence of those changes, which are binary and remove guess work, builds the odds in your favour consistently, if you know how to use indicators correctly. Add an over lay of discretion to add in confluence points (using indicators) on multi time frames and you edge the odds in your favour even further.
With pure price action your conditions are severely limited in comparison. Price relative to price and trendlines… that’s it!?
So by default the player with the least amount of conditions to aid the probability of being correct more often than not is the sucker at the table.
I have spent the past several years working on testing binary probability triggers on price hitting targets relative to stop loss. Millions of passes. Thousands of hours. I can tell you a few things for sure. Most indicators are laggy, and give you signals based on price action. The more of them you introduce, the more perfect scenario you look for, the more checks you introduce, not only filter out failure, they filter out wins too. Simple is better.
After playing an indicator game for the longest time, I really started making progress when I started leaning on price action triggers for entries. Your mileage may vary.
You’re going to invite sarcasm when you come in hot like that, telling everyone their beloved price action is for suckers, and you’ve got the solution for sale. I see some version of this thread like weekly. The more sure of themselves someone is, the less sure of them I am.
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Firstly, anyone who falls in love with an approach to trading is going to find it difficult to win.
I’m sure I can answer for everyone that they want to know how to win and couldn’t care about their beloved price action if they started winning with indicators.
I’m spelling it out in here… and was very clear in my last reply to you why it works.
Indicators are lagging by default because they plot using historical data. It always makes me laugh when I hear or read this, it’s stating the obvious.
Well I’m glad you got a laugh then. Let me continue stating the obvious. Because they are laggy by design, the more of them you use, the later you tend to get into movement, which is counter productive to most strategies. I’m wondering why the obvious escapes you.
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Interesting. Have you conducted similar researches over Price Action? What technologies do you use for those researches?
How do you get to the conclussion that most indicators give signals based on price action?
Don’t flatter yourself…
Seems you may not be all that popular with your attitude
Looks like someone else done the job for me
[quote=“MattyMoney, post:14, topic:510798, full:true”]
The term “Pure Price Action” is an argument in itself as it can be subjective. What exactly do you mean by pure price action? Is it a completely blank chart, a chart consisting of a moving average (that’s probably considered an indicator), is a chart consisting of S/R levels and trend lines marked off considered pure price action?
Are you selling an indicator? [/quote]
Pure price action is no indicators just price and trend lines.
No I’m not selling an indicator.
Hey Paul! Indicators being based on price action is just their nature. For example, let’s look at ADX. First, Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) are calculated by comparing previous highs and lows and drawing lines. If +DI is greater than -DI, it indicates an uptrend, vice versa for down. From there, ADX is plotted from 0 to 100 based on the strength of the DMI. Traders use this as an indicator to judge the strength of a trend, whether up or down. Many indicators work this way, feed in X past periods, do math, spit out result. Because they’re so often based on what’s happened in past periods they tend to be reliable indicators AFTER something has started happening. Of course we don’t need tops and bottoms, but the longer it takes you to fire the indicator signal, the more likely you’ll be getting into a partially-exhausted trend, and the more of them you use, the worse it gets. This is just based on my personal experience and what I’ve read. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying they’re useless. I use them. I’ve just found that when I try to build a big predictive “stack” of them it lags prohibitively.
As far as how I test things, I pay for tick data that my MT4 terminal uses for strategy tester. I wrote a simple EA that looks at every tick, decides if it should get in a long or short trade, and then manages trades once it’s in them. For the various conditions that trigger trades I can put anything I want in there, and all the values the trading conditions use can be exposed as external variables. From there, I’ll pick a date range, pick any range and combination of external variable values I’d like, replay the previous market data through the robot, and the optimization results will tell me which values worked and which didn’t. That’s simplifying a bit, but I hope it makes sense. It may take a month to complete, but I can answer any question I have about what will work and what won’t over any time frame in the past couple decades.
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