Look at this EURUSD Monthly Chart.
Examine the swing high points and the swing low points.
Then look to the left at those price levels.
Majority of the time, you will find there is no other swing high or swing low at a price matching the major levels.
Hence, support and resistance doesn’t work for swing traders.
This chart is going back over 30 years. I certainly agree that there is little relevance between historic highs/lows and current levels over such a time span.
In fact, I agree to a large extent that S/R levels do not have very strong reasonings in fundamental terms at all. OK, one can suggest that for example import/export businesses and dealers in commodities may well activate trades at certain price levels, but that does not move the entire market - and certainly not to a specific pip!
But in the shorter time span of maybe a month or two, there is some relevance. But whether this is entirely due to a short-lived self-fulfilment from many traders drawing the same lines, and acting on them, I wouldn’t like to guess!
One interesting observation is that Price Action analysis has spread widely in recent years and most people are talking about S/Rs, zones, supply/demand, order blocks, etc in some form or another - and at the same time condemning indicators to the toilet. And yet, the failure rate reported by regulated brokers shows no signs of improving at all. Still in the same 70-80% failure rate ever since they had to start reporting this data.
So, to me, this shows that using such PA techniques is not any superior to any other technique. In other words, the failure rate is due to other factors. Which tends to support your theory that support and resistance will not work (any better) for swing traders.
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They don’t work because the markets are always looking to take out liquidity. S&R are easy liquidity targets.
So what’s a better focus for swing traders?
To make such significant swings often takes some sort of shift in underlying fundamental conditions.
Examples
COVID-19 pandemic
Global Financial Crisis
Unexpected radical changes in monetary policy.
Yea, so really like keeping tabs on news and event releases and economic data and reports, right?