Hi folks,
I am left battling in my mind.
Why is USD value falling at the moment? Despite sort of good news from unemployment data.
Can anyone suggest where to look for answers?
thank you
This is not fact, just my opinion. I believe institutional traders do this because, they make a ton of money manipulating the market and leave a bunch of traders just like you battling your minds trying to figure out what happened. This video will give you an idea how they manipulate .
Applied Volume Spread Analysis in Short Term Trading - YouTube
For every buyer you need a seller. That means the market will always develop conflicting technical and sentiment signals. Even in extremely strong moves like the current usdjpy spike, you can see downtrends on lower time-frames. The price continuously repaints, oscillates, make fake moves, whatever you want to call it.
In that case, even the fundamentals can be debated. About US unemployment, it was a bit contrasted wasn’t it? Non farm employment change was lower than forecast. Basically while employment numbers are good, the improvements seen in the recent past is slowing down and some may think the curve may reverse. I didn’t follow Yellen speach, but it looks like it was no big news.
Personally I am going to stay on the USD side since resistance levels were breached on several pairs this week (EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD…).
Thank you guys for response.
Kudos
+1 You made me think of this interview of a institutional trader. He was asked about the contrasting signals and he said " it’s not like we all trade the same. . .5 institutional traders ; 1 goes long and makes money, 1 goes short and loses money and 3 decide not to trade at all.
It also depends on timeframe. 1 can go long and make money, 1 can go short and make money and 3 can sit on the sidelines.
Best thing you can do, is stop trying to find a fundamental reason that moved a market.
Stop trying to find a technical reason which moved the market.
And start trying to understand order flow via reading price action live.
Technical / fundamentals are all secondary to reading the underlying momentum of buyers vs. sellers.
Its about supply and demand. In the short term business still has to go about business and that means selling USD to buy Euro’s then that’s what business will do. Regardless of what fundamentals are telling us. Remember the market secondary purpose is for speculators to trade from