Well. You can add a tad more than 550 to the total!!!
Man. I"m tellin’ ya: there’s something to these pivots.
In about the last two hours:
All I did was short the DAX at R1. Then it went up. Then I checked the S&P. It had not yet traded to R1. So I took a small loss on the DAX (like 50 or thereabouts). So I shorted the S&P at R1. That went up. Then I checked the Dow. And that had not traded to R1. So I waited for the Dow to hit R1 and then just shorted it. And then shorted the S&P and the DAX again. And hey presto. Monitored all three to see which one (the lower of them all) was about to hit the next lowest level. The Dow started trading down to the daily pivot. Moment that happened and it got close: closed them all out at profit. Basically 1% for the day. Actually just over slightly.
And here’s the sheer beauty of this. Given that I’m now REALLY doing something that for some reason or the other I just couldn’t get myself to do: I made sure that I would close any position out at 1% loss. Never came anywhere near. But that’s because??? Of my risk based position sizing. In other words: the opening position SIZES were based on ATR and 5% of capital. But once in the trades: the actual losses possible were only 1% per trade. I don’t know if that makes sense. But it does. Point is: you don’t have to trade with fixed stops and worry about getting stopped out i.e. had I done this exercise using the traditional method of placing orders and then stop loss orders just above then I would have gotten stopped out for sure enough times for me to have walked away in disgust.
There’s a lesson up there for one thing i.e. you need to wait for the US to trade to these levels I think. Then you can go wild on the other stuff if you like.
MAN. I dunno why it’s taken me so long to see this stuff or be able to actually get myself to trade this stuff. I’m am almost 100% sure it’s because of my position sizing and therefore no need for stops.
What’s even more surprising is that this was a flipping FRIDAY AFTERNOON and with all this holding pattern for the weekend going on. Just imagine what could happen on a normal day and under normal market conditions!!! I intend to find out next week I can tell you.
It could VERY well be time for me to reinstate my TC2000 subscription. Among SO much other stuff: that gives you NYSE up tick and down tick info. in real time. Now when I did have it: it did nothing for me. I was trying to trade some BS system in John F. Carter’s books. And it never gelled with me. But I watched the above happening on 1m charts. And I could see what was happening on the charts but not what was happening behind the moves. The basic premise is that when these things take off (and let’s say price is moving up) then the number of up ticks starts climbing. In a sustained move they reach a sort of fever pitch. Then they start dying down. Now if that dying down starts happening at a pivot level then you simply fade the move. Dunno. Need to see if it’s worth doing this now for me (given the situation). Unfortunately it costs i.e. there is the subscription as well as the exchange data feeds. But in the last two hours and without better information: I just paid half that subscription!!! And for the first time in my miserable trading life: “I get it (the ticks)”.
You can actually see it on a 1m chart. Price MOVES big time. It then gets to some point (usually just north of south of a pivot) and it starts slowing down. At that very point is when the tick volume is running out of steam. Then it just sits around and drifts up and down and up and down. Then just from a broker chart: all of a sudden you start seeing the price to begin “jiggling around”. And this jiggling then starts to get more pronounced. And at that point there is some move coming. At that point you don’t really know which way it’s going or what the bias is. That is all in the ticks!!! The NYSE symbol is $TICK. And then there’s other stuff like $TRIN and $TRAN (and so on and so forth i.e. not giving a crash course in exchange data here).
Anyways. That’s me done for the day, the week, and the month obviously.
Oh and just in case somebody sees this and gets clever:
This is NOT the same as those utterly useless tick charts that brokers give you. I’m talking about the actual exchange ticks which are nothing more than a trade on the exchange and is regardless of volume traded. In other words: a buy is an up tick and a sell is a down tick. So when up ticks start climbing and becoming feverish then it means there’s a shitpile of buy orders getting executed and same on the sell side. And that, I’m told, is where the rubber meets the road. Never quite “got it” until today.
And I tell what ELSE is interesting:
These trades were just taken i.e. no confirmation from Wilder’s MF or TBPS. But here’s the thing: had I bothered with that last night I would have gone long at the open, TPs were hit at just about the same time I started shorting this afternoon. Those were BOTH way trades. And sure nice work if you can get this action every day. And frankly I no longer see it as being impossible or even difficult anymore.
Anyways. I’m glad I’m flat now. I know for sure I’d not be able to stomach sitting on open positions over this particular weekend with this US/China nonsense going on. Done that too many times years ago. You cannot enjoy your weekend or live because you’re sitting looking for any little bit of news. And let me tell you: it’s terrible knowing over the weekend that what you thought was going to happen hasn’t panned out and you know for sure that you’re going to get ripped a new arsehole at the open on Sunday night. Not worth it EVEN IF you are on the right side.