I’ve just calculated the MF for the S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, and DAX. All long entries. Should have gone long at market on all four just before the close last night but too taxing for my brain at that time of night to do these calcs. I have to formulate a better way of doing them. Anyway: have placed limit buy orders at yesterday’s closing prices. I’m short these same instruments with my core trading system but am fortunate enough to be able to open positions in opposing directions on a handful of instruments (the S&P, Dow, and DAX being three of them and unfortunately not the NASDAQ). Unfortunately prices have moved up slightly since the close last night. Am tempted to just jump in at market. But may as well wait and see i.e. my main trades today will be shorting at R2 and R3 so if I don’t get these too bad I guess. But this the reason I say the supercharged version i.e. going long as per the MF to start the day’s trades, TP at R1 (in this case), then short at R2 or R3 on the very same day.
Cancelled the orders and went in at market i.e. price was starting to move too far away from yesterday’s close. Chops a little off of the potential profits at R1 is all.
Just love it i.e. waiting an entire day to TP and possibly stop and reverse positions and nothing happens. Until the last five minutes!!! Closed at small profits before the close of the cash session fully expecting to have to stop and reverse at a certain price. All of a sudden price took off and ALMOST hit the R1 TP levels set this morning (got about mid way actually). Never seen that happen. Basically price traded below the daily pivot the entire day today until about the last half hour of trading.
I’ve finally done ONE spreadsheet for the TBPS and for the Dow. Works like a bomb.
Anyway. All out of these trades for, as I say, a negligible amount of profit (but profit ain’t loss so that’s just fine). Tomorrow will short at extreme levels again (as opposed to going with the market as per the TBPS).
Well. Given this damn holiday tomorrow in the US I’m guessing the only game in town is going to be the UK and EU. So will see what I can short over that side. Cannot really get into US stuff because it’s only a half a trading day and, as a result, don’t want to be getting into trades that will in all probability not have time to run. But will see. One thing I’ve noticed with trading these things is that you need to adapt on the fly i.e. nothing is carved in stone during any given trading day.
Well. Could not have been more wrong. Futures are climbing in leaps and bounds (including the US). There’s a surprise. Got even more action today than yesterday. Will be shorting R3 levels.
Oh man. Even with all this fancy technology now today: not a single trade. Just south of R3 were my orders and they were ALMOST hit in the last few minutes but no point i.e. US closing (cash already closed) so even if orders were executed (Futures) then no time for them to trade to TP for the day. So that’s it for pivots today unfortunately.
Gotta tell you though: having the right tools for this is something to behold. It’s actually amazing to watch the ticks start climbing or dropping and then to watch price follow.
Oh by the way: went with TradeStation (platform rental). Thought I’d better mention this as I mentioned TC2000 and Worden above. Realtime market internals not available in TC2000 at the moment. And really: for the sake of about $60 difference in price??? May as well have Rolls Royce and have done with it.
Nah dude. You got no idea. This is the real deal here now. There’s market internals for all of the exchanges and it’s unbelievable how price follows the ticks. (And I’m not talking about those useless tick charts i.e. this is the actual exchange ticks).
Check it out. The below is a 15m $TICK (NYSE) chart in TradeStation (although the period of the chart is actually irrelevant). Go see what happened on the S&P at the same time.Like clockwork. You don’t even need a price chart in front of you. The moment those ticks hit +1 000 you go short. Like taking candy from a baby.
And the new TradeStation has a thing called “Pointer Tracking” so you can open multiple charts and as you move your pointer or crosshair on one chart it aligns your pointer or crosshair to the same or corresponding bars on all of the other charts. So it makes the above a cinch.
Alright on this particular chart: those extremes were the opening gaps for the last two days. But here’s where the secret comes in. Some people will short opening gaps up (for example) the moment they occur. Problem is that without this data: you don’t know when the buying pressure has been exhausted so you could easily short into the opening gap up but that’s still got a way to go up. This eliminates the guesswork totally. Probably as close as you’re going to come to shorting at a top or going long at a bottom.
This happens intraday too of course so you’ve gotta be on your toes.
There’s other trades of course based on these charts. But this the simplest.
Plenty of videos on YouTube about this e.g. “trading $tick” (that type of thing).
And now that I have the Rolls: I think it’s time for me to start programming this TBPS thing of Wilder’s. Interesting to note that the trades that I closed out early yesterday would actually have hit their full targets this morning within minutes. And sadly that would have been pretty serious money. And I’ve spent a lot of time following some of these trades through and I tell you: it may very well be the next best thing since sliced bread. That and my combo. of the TPS and Pivots and RSI.
Nope. First of all the MT4 volume is absolute nonsense i.e. it’s not the proper exchange volume (and matter of fact I made sure I’ve checked this now as in this morning i.e. the actual exchange volume doesn’t even resemble the supposed volume shown on MT4 platforms). Second: volume is the cumulative number of contracts (or shares or whatever) that have been traded during the current bar is all. It’s not indicative of any current and immediate market direction. There are trading systems and methodologies that will have you look at volume that’s been traded in relation to whether an up day or a down day. This is Volume Spread Analysis. Seen this tried here may times. Flawed if the volume itself is incorrect.
Of course: above I’m talking about Equities and Commodities etc. With spot FOREX I dunno WHAT that volume is supposed to represent other than the volume being traded at a particular broker or liquidity provider. It’s useless.
Here. PROPER volume being shown. This is a chart of the S&P CASH Index. Note how volume is dropping off as we are going higher. It’s one of the (many) reasons why people are not trusting this rally. That and the fact there is a divergence between the Dow Transports and the small cap. Russell 2000.
Talk about boredom on this holiday day!!! LOL!!! And I have to keep reminding myself that it’s not a Public Holiday here even although it feels like it!!! LOL!!!
Oh well. Good excuse to get my new toys together.
Here is now the day trading layout. Clean. Simple. Functional No distractions. Ready to rock and roll.
Hell. I may go totally against all my own advice and start trading news. Really??? Well here’s why:
With news data releases and without this info.: you will never know the correct direction to fade the move and you will also never know when to fade the move. When news data is released the ticks don’t lie. You will get a spike in the ticks and which must be above +1 000. The moment that reading fires off to a peak and slows: that’s when you know the move is over and time to fade the move. And tomorrow should give me an ideal opportunity to test this.
I have to get me some tic data!! It really seems to be the “inside track”.
KC
edit: Just found this. Of course it will be limited by the data feed of whatever broker is being used.
I’ll have to give it a shot. Any initial thoughts? I may be barking up the wrong tree.
BTW … Want to see if Mr. “T” will site all the famous military “paraders” now that he is joining the club: N. Korea, China, Iran, Russia, who are some others… mmm … Oh yeah! Mussolini and AH!
I cannot actually comment on that. I don’t know where that data will come from. But hey: try it.
Bear in mind though: for this data of mine you have to register with the relevant exchanges and you pay for the realtime data. There’s loads of SUPPOSED tick charts out there that are free i.e. you can just search for them. But they’re not realtime. Matter of fact the exchange agreements specifically prohibit public sharing of this data. So just be careful is all I’m saying. Just think of the ramifications of having tick data that is delayed???
But as I say try it. You in particular at this stage have nothing to lose. I would say to simply trace the ticks that you’ve found to a chart. But the problem is that you have actually no idea if that data was in realtime and with no delays. In other words: it may look fine historically but may not be so in realtime. Only way to check that is to actually sit and watch what happens at news time (that’s a good test) (and tomorrow should do fine). If you see the ticks climbing and price following and going up then you’re good to go. Another potential problem i see is that with the ticks you’re talking about: what reading is deemed to be “extreme”??? For the NYSE the extreme level of +/-1 000 has been checked and verified to be a reasonable indication of “extreme”. No idea what would happen with a free and generic tick chart for a spot FOREX pair.
Once again: try it. But use with caution. And don’t be disappointed if it doesn’t work.
At some point you’ll see the light though. Just hope it’s not after you’ve wiped out a live account like everybody else.
Just realized that my beloved TradeStation $TICK ain’t going to help me ■■■■ all with the jobs numbers!!! The NYSE ain’t open when the numbers come out!!! LOL!!!
HOWEVER and depending on the number and the market reaction:
You can bet your arse that those ticks will fly one way or the other when the cash session opens.
Full disclosure is that I may or may not take the trade though i.e. bear in mind this all still new to me. And as exciting as it may be and as great as it checks out historically: would MAYBE rather err on the side of caution until I’ve got more confidence in everything including, but not limited to, the speed of my Internet connection. If all checks out though I am now seriously thinking of ditching my current setup and getting 100Mbps unshaped fiber. I don’t have any problems at the moment i.e. with my core trading system I don’t have to bother about waiting a second or two for execution (and sometimes I get re-quotes too which is no big deal). But this is another whole story.
Must say that on this note: it’s becoming apparent to me that actually one needs to spend a little bit of money to make money. I guess the old adage applies i.e. if you’re going to do something then do it right especially if it’s worth doing. And doesn’t help having the Rolls Royce of trading platforms linked to a budget or run-of-the-mill one-size-fits-all Internet connection let’s face it.
