Win ratio

Actually it does not look bad, took a snapshot, very calm, volume low, I think late breakout after 2AM EDT. :slight_smile:


Hey, Oskar

I agree with your Sell Entry price of 1.6318

I have a different Buy Entry. Mine is 1.6443 to get above Thursday’s NFP spike. On my chart, the spike was 1.6437 (Ask), so I added
6 pips to that.

My TP’s are 10 pips, and my SL’s are 30 pips.

This screen-shot shows Ask prices.

Mike, if you’re online,

You may notice that it isn’t even midnight EDT yet, and I already have Entry Orders placed. As you can see, the current price is just hanging out in the middle of the chart, so I’m confident that the High and Low have been established.

Yep, playing along at home :slight_smile:

I’ve got two orders pending @ long 1.6427 (6 pips higher than my 1900 GMT candle) and short @ 1.6318 6 pips below my 2300 GMT candle which is the low for the period from 1900-0400.

Mike

Mike,

I think you placed your Buy Entry order at a precarious place. It looks to me like the 06:05 GMT candle triggered your Buy order, and then stopped you out almost immediately (unless you had more than a 30-pip SL). If the 06:05 GMT candle didn’t trigger your Buy, then the 06:25 GMT candle did, for sure.

If you haven’t been stopped out, then you’re negative 15 or 20 pips at this point. I hope you’re demo trading.

The problem with your Buy Entry price, as I see it, is the 17:25 GMT candle YESTERDAY (Thursday), which is where all that resistance came from at 06:05 GMT this morning.

And immediately above that resistance level, there is another one: the 12:30 GMT candle YESTERDAY when the NFP report caused that price spike. I tried to point those levels out on the chart I posted, but I guess I didn’t make them obvious enough.

These resistance levels are the reason I placed my Buy Entry order at 1.6443 — to get above all that potential trouble.

It’s tempting to just focus on the 10-hour period we have isolated, pick the High and pick the Low, and jump in. But, we can’t ignore support and resistance (which always originate from somewhere BEFORE our 10-hour period).

One other point: it appears that you took your High and Low off the same chart of Bid prices. If that’s the case, then you failed to take the spread into consideration. Always remember that we buy at the Ask price, and sell at the Bid price.

Let me know what’s going on.

Clint

I’ll have a look but I think it would need to redraw the rectangle every hour to do this so if I have some time.

I’m sure you do. Can’t argue with that :slight_smile:

I am actually having a little more success using the start of the London session and breaking out from there. It’s marginal though and the highs and lows may be very similar - need to have a bit more investigation into it. Any reason why London traders would jump on a move or high/low already made by Frankfurt?

sorry to jump in on the conversation, i have actrully taken a day off today, i thought you all were to (just noticed all the coments in my in box), the reason i have taken today off is becasue the USA bank holiday, before i went live with this stratergy i never ever won on days were bank holidays were involved, therfor when i went live i decided not to trade these days.

good luck all

Well, so far this morning, the Europeans and the Brits have failed to push the GBP/USD very far in either direction. The price has been stuck between 1.6320 and 1.6440 for more than 24 hours. My pending orders are still pending, and I’m bored with them.

In less than 20 minutes, the Services PMI report will be released in Britain, and it appears that the market is just waiting to see what that report brings. I’m not a “news” trader, so I’m going to cancel my pending orders and call it a week.

The G/U Breakout Strategy, plus a little common sense, kept me out of the market this morning, and that’s a good thing. A trading plan that keeps you from taking bad trades is a pretty damn good plan.

I hope you all have a marvelous weekend.

To my fellow countrymen: Fly the flag, watch some fireworks, and cherish your freedom.

Clint

I looked and looked and looked (at the chart, not p#%n) :smiley: and decided to go to bed and leave it all alone.
That was the right decision, and the 2AM I hit right too. I wish I would always be that good with my predictions. I guess it was more like a blind chicken finds a corn in between too. :smiley:

SanMiguel
Thanks, could it be redrawn every 5, 15 or 30mins?
Appreciate it when you find the time.
Happy 4th to all

+24 pips for me this week - I knew I should have sat today out with those S&R, reports, and NYSE being shut. Oh well :slight_smile:

Think positive: you made +24 and not -24. :slight_smile:

TREVPICK001 thanks for sharing this idea. I would like to master it as well. I got 2 concerns, if you can give me explanations for both that will be great.

  1. today I set up my pending orders (even it is a US holiday, it was very tempting when I back tested it) for g/u for an entry and it triggered my order, the price went down about 15 pips which I was targeting for 40pips and then it retraced back up 57 pips and hit my stop loss which was 30 pips. Look at the chart #1. What do you recommend to that. Maybe I should have left more space since it is g/u pair would have more valume? I would like to have a risk ration 40-30 but risking 30 pips is not enough for this pair. I could of taken 10 pips too on this trade.

  2. In the 2nd picture if you notice the price triggers for an entry long by breaking the high line with 9 pips which is more then 6 pips above the high line but the price then sharply moves down against me, and this is happening right at the london session opens. Should I have waited coupld of candles or what? give me some suggestion on this one thanks.

I am in the eastern time frame and the 2 lines are at 20:00 - 6:00 GMT. My 2nd line is right at the UK session open. When I move that line to a hour after UK open it looks better where the price would have not triggered yet.



Ok that might answer one of my questions, I guess in this business we will have alot of long weekends :smiley:

Man thanks again for sharing your idea really thank you. :stuck_out_tongue:

for some reason trading when the usa is on a holiday changes the rules, dont ask me why because i dont know, when i was demo trading this stratergy 6 months ago i noticed days like today were alll loosers, i trade live now and took the auth not to trade when either usa or uk are on holiday,

both your trades look good for a normal day however your win to lose ratio will change if you are targetting 40 pips not always does it go that far before a retracment, if you look at the chart for the last month you would have been succesfull overall using a 30/40 stratergy.

40 pips at the moment is a good target but dont expect to win as often as if you say went for 10 pips

up untill today cliff as won for the last 11 days at 10 pips per day for example

also just to make you aware that after the first trade has been triggered normally i close the second one down, again it because i trade live and i am going for senarios that i think will work best, if you are demo trading fill your boots and go for the second trade it will be good experiance

my personall target is random due to i use a trailing stop of 5 pips prefered to a target, althought the result of going for a take profit of 10 pips are simular

my reason for my trailing stops is becasue there are some ocasions were the price plumets thought the pending order level yeilding higher returns, although latley its plumeted on average 15 pips before retracing then plumetting some more, so i myself i looking to amed it my plan slighty to take advantage of the current conditions,

from a week monday i will be manuallly placing a stop +10 and leaving the trade alone until it get to +25 +50 for example, my only fear is that if the trades can be amended as quick as id like, this is why i wouldnt mind a ea that maybe does that part automaticly,

anyway its good to see some one else joining the fun

have a good week end and im sure all will be back to normall Monday :):slight_smile:

You try to reinvent the system with different time-frame and HINDSIGHT knowledge. brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr :eek: :slight_smile:

ok thanks for the reply. I will then probaly will extend my profit and stop loss. I will still have to back test it. I am thinking of putting the stop loss to the above the highest or below the lowest points in that time frame and target the # of pips that i risk, if that doesn’t go then I will go with your suggestion.

also as mentioned below your time frame is out, its not 6am gmt finish it is 05:00am althought i dont think it would have made a diffrence this morning

Let me know what’s going on.

Yep it seems I picked todays high to go long :eek: I was adhering to the timeframe too much I guess. I mainly watch the EUR/USD so I’m not as familiar with the GU but looking back I see the resistance points you were talking about and it really was a very bad place to get in.

My short did trigger @ 6318 though and I offset the loss a little bit on that one. On the spreads, I don’t generally pay too much attention because my spreads are not fixed so there is really no way to predict the exact spread unless I’m sitting in front of the computer but they are usually within 1 pip on EU and 2 or so on the GU.

Mike

Hey, fed

Welcome to the Breakout Gang. Regarding your time interval, you are off by 2 hours. The G/U Breakout Strategy, as Trevor introduced it, defines the “overnight” period as 7pm - 5 am London time. That’s the BST time zone.

That translates to 2pm - midnight EDT (New York time), [B]18:00 - 04:00 GMT[/B], and 8pm - 6am CEST (Zurich time).

Sorry Trev, I think you’re off by an hour as well. [B]The GMT finish is 04:00[/B].

Clint

Now I really am confused!. :confused:
TREV in that EA the orders go in at 0600GMT, ie the 5am candle is counted in highs or lows. This is because that’s when the low volume finishes as Frankfurt opens at 0600GMT (8am their time)…isn’t it?
It’s minimal anyway as your whole low volume period essentially runs from end of NYSE to start of Frankfurt. You never see the 1hr ATR pick up until then.