I’ve tried to do some detailed analysis for the trades from the end of April, to find some more light on whether to use a TS or fixed TP/SL. While a 5-pip TS looks very interesting, my broker does not directly support it, so I need to use an EA that calculates and implements it with market orders. This is something I find a bit risky when left unattended. Now this analysis shows me that while there are a number of TS trades that run beyond 10 pips, they do not typically fly much further even if there is a sharp movement in place, because of that tight TS. On the other hand, if you have a TS trade that ends in a profit that is less than 10 pips, it most probably would have hit 10 pips as well.
Then I looked at the drawdowns in winning trades. It was very seldom with winning trades that the drawdown would have exceeded 20 pips. This suggests me to put SL to 24 and TP to 12 - this way R:R is reduced to 2:1 instead of 3:1, and I don’t think there is much compromise with the system.
A winning trade is typically over within a few minutes, most often in less than some 8 minutes. This made me think to end a trade if it has not been closed at around 8 minutes and it is in profit. But today’s short trade is a nice counterexample for this (and guess if I went and closed that trade prematurely because of that reasoning of mine, ending up roughly at BE).
Clint, thanks for your detailed analysis! This gives excellent perspective for my trade planning.
east coast usa here, went to sleep long before midnight last night. Thanks for the analysis Clint. Here’s a quick screenshot of my chart. hindsight is 2020 but looks like the basic strategy would have worked and captured the downside pips. maybe a lot of pips if you stuck with the trend and kept the trade open for a while.
I think 8mins is way to quick to close these trades. Having said that 10 pips is not too far for the price to go. I personally leave the trade at least 1 hour but I am using a 24:48 SL:TP strategy.
I ran your results through my EA for a 20:10 strategy and got the following:20/10
Surprisingly, less profit than using a 30:10 strategy
24/12 comes out as this: 24/12
Very similar to what I found that 24 seems an ideal SL to use under the current conditions.
[B]Note, this is since beginning April and making no effort to adjust trades for S&R lines, trade duration, etc.[/B]
Hope it’s of some use.
Hi gang, let me share my first trade and first profit with my live micro account. On the weekend I have done alot of back testing. I found out that there were no failure with +10-15pips target. 50-60 pips target was 80% win ratio, yes 80%, and I think 60 pips target would be the best suited for this pair. SL is all up to you guys if you put 30pips as SL then then you get stoped out easyly before you bag your 60 pips. I put at least 70-80 pips or sometimes even 100 pips depends. I also found out that g/u is the only pair that works, I put the lines one at 1:00 and 15:00 EST(New York time), I got better results with this time frame when I backtested it.
So my entry line got brocken though at 1.6250 and I have taken my 60pips at 1.6190 between the hours of 6:12 and 6:57GMT, took less then 1 hour. Look at the picture and you will notice that I have added the Snake Force, it is a great prediction tool for me, if you know how to read it, believe me you will predict the price movement at that time. Let me know if anyone needs how the Snake Force works or you can experiment it yourself. I have included seperate image for snake force property what I did with the color to match my candle colors.
I just got another 20 pips in 7 minutes with usd/jpy, this pair works in different time frames, my trigger just went for 20 pips. I draw the lines between 00:00 and 10:00 GMT I think that translates to 20:00 and 6:00 (New Your time).
I found out that this pair is 90% with 20 pips and again 15 pips would be almost no failure.
Lets see how the whole thing will work out with g/u and u/j. I will also back test the other majors and try to find out which time frame would work the best.
Lots of info in google about snakeforce, again, it seems to be a comfort indicator like most indicators are.
Unless you made some modification and found the “holy grail” in it.
No man I wish I found the holy grail, I don’t think it exists. I can’t modify indicators unfortunately. Snake Force and moving average are the 2 indicators that make sence for me. I would like to look at price movement mostly and indicators for confirming for an entry spot. For the past year and half I have tested probably over 100 indicators and strategies and to be honnest it wasn’t a waist of my time, it was a good experience, coming from a none trading back ground I have learned alot about this field, hopefully another couple of years I am planning to do this full time.
look at the order below i placed a order to buy at 1.62256 with a straight Take profit of 1.62328
i bet �2.00 per point and the trade went thought fine profiting �8.87
However the diffrence betwwen the 2 figures come out at a difrence of 0.00072 meaning 7.2 pips
now i know you have to take into account the spread on the being 3 pips but because this is a pending order going long i ajusted the entry price accordingly
so the trade would enter 30 or 3 pips before the aimed entry price which cancels out the spread so on the long trade 7.2 pips should be �14 and not 8
i have phone alpari to check if for what ever reason there was a wider spread than normall but they are checcking the history for me just wondering if anyone had any ideas to how or why this would work out, other than the spread being increased
SanMiguel’s post brought me the following idea: if your position size is, say, 5 trading units, how about allocating it so that once entered, you define SL/TP = 24/12 for, say, 4 units and 24/48 for 1 unit? The following scenarios are possible:
The complete trade is profitable and you get 412 pips + 148 pips = 96 “trade-size-normalized” pips
The lower TP is hit, but not the higher one, so you get 412 pips - 124 pips = 24 pips
Neither of the TPs is hit, so you get -5*24 pips = -120 pips.
As both of these systems should be profitable, the combination should as well. I suppose this could bring some safety buffer for possible changes in the market.
Yes I am sure, the back testing showed some great results, to be honost out of the majors only 3 pairs showed great results g/u, e/u and u/j but they are in different time frame. I am using my micro account live trading. For SL for this trade I risked 77 pips, back testing showed me that risking 20-30 pips not enough of space to win 90% of the trades, the other 10% most of them were all still winning trades but not 20 pips, I mean when the price broke the s/r line it stayed positive, there was only 1 trade went against me with -57 pips, but all the rest is 20+ pips and again few would be +5 to 15 pips that I will take. I know the risk is more then my tp but again this is a riskiy business, I’ll just make sure I don’t risk more then 2% of my account balance on each trade.
The back testing looks good, the first trade that I took today as I have posted with a screenshot, I will continue doing that everyday if I get in to a trade or not. I am not in to 5-10 pips, it is 20 + pips the more pips you want the more risky it is. This is like scalping, you go in and take what ever satisfys you, my plan is to get 20 pips with u/j, long term traders are suppost to watch for their risk ratios not scalpers, scalpers have better winning percentage and they do risk alot more pips then what they take. I did put the SL to 77 pips but I will not hold a trade all the way 77 pips though. I am watching price action and decide to close the trade probably 30, 40 could be at 50 pips. If you know how to back test, just back test the u/j pair and let me know the results. Its good really good
