Win ratio

Beginner Questions
432

I don’t like the long trade, because we’ve been too long, too close to the upper resistance. I see the problem quite much the same as when you are having the high right at the end of the overnight period.

I don’t like the short trade either, mainly because I’ve been biten a couple of times recently by having a nice rally just before the entry point in a chart that resembles me of this, but the local trend has then stopped only at a few pips profit, then turned and hit SL. Because of this, I’m now being a wiseman here and looking at the weak resistance at around 1.6260 as my entry, slightly above the system’s low. But I’m putting in a small position now.

Yesterday I tried to play a wiseman as well, avoiding the 1.6300 line by placing my long trade some 15 pips above it. What happened: the trade was taken by 1 pip, then it sank to SL. Luckily my position was small here as well.

433

What about going long above yesterday’s high of 1.6346?

434

I agree. My order is in: [B]BUY 1.6353, SL 1.6323, TP 1.6373[/B]

This is not kosher at all, but I’m going to do it, anyway. I’m going to ignore the first 3 hours of the current Overnight Period. That makes the actual LOW for the shortened Period 1.6305 on my chart. I’m going to use that as my LOW, and give it extra room. I’ll place a sell order 15 pips below this LOW.

[B]SELL 1.6290, SL 1.6320, TP 1.6270[/B]. Notice that 1.6270 is the Fib(23.6) based on yesterday’s run-up.

I’ll try to post a chart of all this, if there’s time.

Clint

435

Well, that Long trade worked out well. I’m +20 pips for tonight.

I tried to upload another chart, but the PhotoBucket site is down for maintenance, so I’ll let that go for tonight.

Leemo, I hope you made some pips, as well.

Clint

436

Unfortunately not. Because I had lost out on my last 3 early morning trades I decided to just go back to bed. I think the trading Gods are against me at the moment:( Glad to see you made 20

I’ll have another go tomorrow.

437

Hi guys, I’m still new and learning but thought I would share my thoughts on this one. Also want say thanks again Clint, your analysis has given me some ‘aha!’ moments. So here’s my take for lastnight. to trade a breakout you have to have a narrow trading range to break out of right? Regardless of the past support and resistance in this case it looked to me like a very narrow range forming Highlighted in the blue box, also you can see the blue lines that form the box upper and lower bounds of the box. In hindsight I could have made the lower bound a little lower. Excuse the clutter, I’m experimenting with a cluster f of moving averages. The overall trend is up in the medium term so a buy trade looked good to me, and sure enough look what happened. In this case I didnt like the look of a sell trade so only a buy trade just above the upper bound of the box. Also you can see I did not include the low that Clint mentions because it is outside the narrow range. Am I looking at this the right way? or am I way off base?

P.S. ignore the buy at .63626 I did that this morning at about 6:30 EDT, Still a demo account so no real trade last night. Cant do these trades on IBFX they don’t allow it. Will have to get a new broker.

Real trade should have been just above the box line around .63399 roughly at 5:45 GMT, This is a 15m chart


438

hopefully this week will be the last of crap price action for a bit

439

Hi Talon,

You are looking at things the right way. You’re looking at PRICE ACTION and asking, “What is the market showing me?”

You’re thinking like a trader! Congratulations!

I agree with the narrow range you highlighted on your chart. Scroll back 5 posts (to #423) and read what I said about using a shortened period. We’re saying the same thing.

(I’m sort of answering the points in your post in reverse order.)

You’re right about the trend, as well. A beautiful trendline has formed, starting at the Swing Low 1.60325 on the 09:50 GMT candle on Monday 7/13 (and that trendline is being tested right now).

Regarding breakouts (the first point in your post), prices can break out of any channel, inclined or horizontal, wide or narrow. Trevor’s G/U Breakout Strategy was designed for horizontal channels (width not specified) — that’s why we draw horizontal lines at the HIGH and LOW of each period.

Lately, the market has been offering us ascending and descending channels, and generally mucking up our neat Strategy.
So, we’ve had to get creative.

A lot of the stuff that I’ve thrown into the mix over the past week — inclined channels, Fibonacci retracement levels, adjusting the start of the Period, etc. — are not part of the Strategy, as Trevor introduced it. And, maybe sometime soon, we ought to talk about these deviations from the original, simple plan.

For now, congratulations on your analysis of last night’s opportunities.

Clint

440

Thanks for the encouragement ! Let’s see what tonight brings.

441

If you’re looking for a narrow, horizontal channel, look at the GU since 16:00 GMT today.

It doesn’t get much narrower, or much more horizontal than that!

It this keeps up for another three-and-a-half hours, the Zurich (or London) open Thursday morning might be very interesting.

442

true, and there it goes breaking down about 0:35gmt. What causes narrow channels and breakouts like that, any idea?

443

Notes on the GBP/USD Breakout Strategy for Wednesday/Thursday:

A very narrow, horizontal channel formed for most of the Overnight Period. Then, beginning at about 00:30 GMT, the channel was broken to the downside, and the ascending trendline which has persisted since 10:00 GMT on Monday was also broken to the downside.

The break to the downside appears to have been tentative. This looks like exhaustion of the up-move which has been following the now-broken trendline.

It’s just past noon in Tokyo, and it’s mid-afternoon in Australia and New Zealand. It appears that there is insufficient buying or selling pressure in the market at this time to drive the price decisively in either direction.

If I had to bet, I would say that traders in Asia are content to leave this market alone for today, and simply hand it over to Europe, 2-3 hours from now. And, if that happens, I expect Europe to take charge and push this thing out of its rut.

The HIGH of the Period is 1.6441 on the 21:10 GMT candle. I don’t like the area directly above this HIGH for placing a Buy order, because of the 4 resistance levels directly overhead. Three of those resistance levels are probably weak, but the 1.6468 Swing High looks like trouble. I would be a buyer if the price moves above that Swing High by 9 pips.

The LOW of the Period is 1.6381 on the 02:40 GMT candle. I don’t like the area directly below this LOW, either, because it’s too close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.6365. I would be a seller if the price moves below that Fib(23.6) by 6 pips.

I will place entry orders, as follows:

BUY 1.6477, SL 1.6447, TP 1.6497 (if the price heads upward this morning, I expect congestion at the 1.6500 level)

SELL 1.6359, SL 1.6389, TP 1.6309 (on the downside, I expect congestion at the 1.6300 level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level)

860×778

444

hard for me to figure out what this pair is doing right now. looks like its been fairly non directional since sometime yesterday and awfully choppy. If you look at a daily chart it seems to be stuck at this level. I did a buy last night and only made a little

445

Good morning, Talon

I’m glad you made a profit, however small.

I wasn’t so fortunate. As it turned out, last night’s analysis and chart work didn’t do me any good, at all. My SELL ENTRY order was filled just after 3am New York time (8am London), and I was stopped out less than 25 minutes later.

I really expected the market to take a direction and make a decent move after Europe opened. But, it just chopped around, and took me out.

Finally, just in the past hour, it’s showing some life.

I’ll take another look at the Breakout Strategy this evening.

Have a good day.

Clint

446

watching it tonight? What’s that spike at 3:30? Looks like it’s been in a bit of a downtrend so I’m guessing it will break down. It looks like it’s above a support line on the h4 chart so I think it still has some room to go down some but maybe that’s a longer term thing.
What yall think?

‘yall’ ha! now my southern is showing! Ya recon?

447

Notes on the GBP/USD Breakout Strategy for Thursday/Friday:

The chart is ugly. But, it might be trade-able. We have another descending channel, 100 pips from HIGH to LOW.

The HIGH occurred in the first hour of the Period, which is not ideal. But, I have other reasons for not liking the Period HIGH.
Since the New York opening on Wednesday, it looks to me like the GBP/USD has been putting in a massive (and messy) top.
I think the uptrend has exhausted itself, and I have no confidence in a trade in that direction, even if there was an upside breakout Friday morning. Ten pips above the HIGH (1.6458) there is Resistance at 1.6468. And, 12 pips above that point, there is STRONG Resistance at 1.6480. I don’t see an opportunity in this area.

The LOW (1.6361) occurred on the 01:40 GMT candle, and may offer us a trading opportunity Friday morning. I’m guessing that the market now has a downward bias — short-term, anyway. And I would be a seller on a breakout to the downside. Just below the Period LOW, there is a STRONG 11-pip Zone of Support, between the July 16 low of 1.6355, and the July 14 high of 1.6344.
Below this zone of support, I think a short position can be entered.

(By the way, I don’t know what caused the sharp upward spike on the 03:30 GMT candle. But, it was quickly reversed.)

Here are the Resistance and Support levels:

R: 1.6561 (June 19 and June 26) — STRONG
R: 1.6545 (July 1)
R: 1.6480 (July 16) — STRONG
R: 1.6468 (July 15)

S: 1.6355 (July 16) — STRONG
S: 1.6344 (July 14) — STRONG
S: 1.6331 (July 15)
S: 1.6309 Fibonacci Retracement Level (38.2%)
S: 1.6300 (July 15) — STRONG

I will enter only a SELL ENTRY ORDER this morning:

SELL 1.6338, SL 1.6368, TP 1.6308

If you trade this morning, be careful. We’ve been struggling with this Strategy lately.

864×917

448

I see we are kind of thinking alike. If you look at a daily chart it definately looks like it’s topped out. Of course I know why the strategy has tanked lately, its because I started looking at it. everytime I try something it goes haywire. Whenever I place a buy order it creates a resistance zone and everytime I place a sell, it creates a support area. I’m such a market maker! LOL

449

We’re talking about different tops. The top I’m referring to has been developing for a couple of days, and is a very small portion of the top you were looking at.

That larger top (if, in fact, it is a top) began forming on June 3, and so far has traced out a large, raggedy 700-pip horizontal channel (not counting the out-liers).

450

+46 for the week though that was all from Friday morning’s trade + I reduce my lot size on Fridays because it’s the end of the week and because of the price action recently.
It’s getting pips but not as many as 3 weeks ago - do we think it could have anything to do with trending and ranging, ie been trending much more this week? I tried some tests with ADX before but didn’t come to much conclusion.

451

Yep, I see what you’re talking about. I’m still new, looking at all kinds of different time frames trying to get an idea of whats going on. Should have trusted my instinct to sell, looks like it made a good downward move.
There was another one of those spikes about 5:45, I still wonder what causes that.
Think I’ll put on a sell and see if it continues downward during the day.