Win ratio

Beginner Questions
472

Hi guys,

Is this how we should trade this system?

If ATR(14) > 200 AND (its not Mon, Sat, Sun)

Block Start	= London 7pm = GMT 6pm = Melbourne 4am
Block End	= London 5am = GMT 4am = Melbourne 2pm

Block High	= Max (Block Start to Block End)
Block Low	= Min (Block Start to Block End)

OSP Buy		= Block High + 6 pips buffer + spread
OSP Buy SL	= OSP Buy    - 30 pips
OSP Buy TP	= OSP Buy    + 30 pips

OSP Sell	= Block Low  - 6 pips buffer
OSP Sell SL	= OSP Sell   + 30 pips
OSP Sell TP	= OSP Sell   - 30 pips

End if

473

those figures look good to me, i have gotten rid off the boring TS this morning, chart looks good dare i say

474

this baby is taking its time to slip its stuck just above the low oh well i ant got a life anyway

475

Yeah, but …

  1. The ATR thing is a customization added to the basic strategy by one of the posters on this thread. Personally, I don’t use;
    and I don’t know whether any other traders use it.

  2. Regarding the HIGH and LOW of the period (which you are calling the block), you have accurately stated the general rule.
    But, there are exceptions, depending on how close the HIGH or LOW is to the beginning or end of the period. You’ll have to do some reading on this thread to catch up with that discussion.

  3. SL and TP are very much a matter of taste. There is no rule. Successful trades made by posters on this thread have ranged from 10 pips TP and 30 pips SL, up to 50 pips (or more) TP and SL.

  4. If you succeed in creating a robot, and trading this strategy with it, you will be the first to do so (as far as I know).

Your times are correct. And your calculations of Buy and Sell prices are correct.

We’re glad to have you trade along with us. Let us know how the robot thing works out.

Clint

476

I’m out. I don’t like all the congestion around 1.6470. I don’t know why it’s happening, so I’m just going to stand aside.

I really thought there would be a decisive move down this morning, and maybe it’s still coming. But, so far, this thing isn’t
behaving as I expected.

If you guys are still in, good luck.

Clint

Edit: I’m going to add some thoughts to what I said above.

After I closed my positions, the down-move came, and it reached both of my TP points.

I bailed out of my positions too soon. I should have let my trade do its thing, just the way I planned it. But, instead, I micro-managed my trade. I started to second-guess my original analysis. I decided to get out with a small profit, so as to avoid a loss.

And by doing all these things, I cost myself a whole bunch of pips.

We all have our personal trading demons, and this is one of mine: I come up with all sorts of reasons to sabotage my own trade.
I wish I had 10 pips for every time I’ve done this.

Oskar had the right idea: place your orders, and go to bed.

477

Killer moving average crossover on the 1 hr. Solid red candlestick going thru averages on 11 pm(pacifac),so i stuck it out to 12.50 am for 30 pips.:D(alas still in demo:( Good Night dont let the Baby Pips bite;)

478

Looks the breakout on the short side is a winner;

479

so thats what you mean by a narrow range? and I keep looking for something more horrizontal. the big rounded top fooled me. but it did look to me more likely to be a down move. Though my analysis still isn’t as good as Clint’s. Been reading an old book recently. it has a chapter on this method and it warns of a false breakout. that little up move about 2am looks just like the picture in the book.

480

Hi All,
Clint, I agree with your “own” sabotage, or second guessing. It is a problem of mine too but don’t want to imply others have that problem. :slight_smile:
That’s the reason I came up with trading “early”.
I noticed by 10~10:30 PM EDT the highs and lows are pretty much defined in Trevpicks system for the night.
I noticed too when I sit in front of the screen ~1~4AM EDT and see how the candles are going the temptation to “muddle” with the trade is just to great.
Since there is nothing else to do, everybody is sleeping, except me, noisy work is out and watching movies is somehow not working either.
So what is left? Messing with the trade and that is a bad move in general.
Then, look back, how many times you could jump out of the trade in time and made some pips because you where in front of the screen?
Thats’ what i want to find out now.
Due to the observations so far I want to trade “early” Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday.
I noticed Monday is Phil’s Sunday breakout better or maybe I imagine that and some Friday’s are just peppered with looong wicks on the candles and very fast moving. Maybe StopLoss hunting?
Not that I want to imply the brokers would do such a thing. :slight_smile:
You are doing a great job with your analysis and your chart, I like them, even if they are to late for me. :slight_smile:
BTW, my TS of 10 pips got unfortunately way to early triggered and I was out with 12pips. Why 12? I don’t know yet, have to look at the “sell” time and the charts.
I use IBFX demo for charts and Oanda to trade and noticed the 2 don’t match sometimes by a few pips
So my strategy for now?
Sunday/Monday phil’s (Thanks phil), Tues Wed Thurs early (with or without TS, TS is still a sticky point to be worked out) and Friday’s hmmmmmmmmmm, I don’t have an answer yet, maybe somebody else has a better handle on that one, then me.
Did I had the right idea last night, I think so for last night (except the TS), but a blind chicken finds a corn sometimes too and that was just last night.
Now comes the hard part, I will go back and start looking if I would have had more winners then losers with the “set and forget” trading.
The problem: looking back and “seeing” the candles is just not the same then the live trading. Don’t know if it is me but “back-testing”, somehow the eyes are cheating since I know already what happened.
Any suggestions and Idea’s are welcome.
Happy Trading
Clint: keep up the good work it is much appreciated from my end even when I look and read your charts in hindsight, it is good inside at the time what happened on the chart.

481

This is just my opinion, but I don’t think it’s stop hunting. I hardly ever trade on Fridays because I find the market to be erratic, and I [B]never [/B]trade after noon GMT on Fridays because the market is [I]really [/I]erratic.

I think it’s caused by the “big boys” closing out their large positions because Saturday is coming and they don’t want to hold their positions over the weekend. Since they aren’t closing the trades because of normal technical or fundamental analysis it causes what we perceive as “weird” movements on Fridays.

But like I said, that’s just my idea… I don’t have any evidence for it. :slight_smile:

482

ok guy’s i have put together a word document that i want all to read

its a slight ADD ON to our stratergy that i want you guys to read and either tell me im going up the wall or if we are on to something

dont be shy to tell me its crap, but i want some opionions and ideas thrown into the pot

READ WELL AND REPLY WITH IDEAS ABOUT THIS ADD ON

TREVPICK GBPUSD BREAK.pdf (81.3 KB)

483

[QUOTE=TREVPICK001;121379]quote from your PDF
Trying to think outside the box we could try implementing chart
patterns into our stratergy to get a idea of a way forward. you are sticking to the original plan of tight 5 pip trailing stops to be honest most of the loosing days would have turned into winning days [QUOTE]

Trev, you summed it up already in your PDF.
First part Clint is doing the charting already nicely but then the “muddling as I call it” with your trade while waiting screws it up.
2nd, 5 pips TS is not possible with Oanda (10 minimum) and other brokers.
As I learned last night, the charting demo IBFX is not exactly the same as Oanda and sometimes this matters, but also could go either way.
Conclusion: Your system is good, Clint charting is good, now we need a sort of EA to “Set & Forget” because our own “muddling” is probably when we loose. Hmmmmm, now I speak for everybody instead just for me. :rolleyes:
At least at this point in time I feel that way and that’s why I want to place the trades early and go to bed. When I wake up and check the chart I want to be surprised, One way :eek: or an other :smiley:
Of course I don’t write that in stone but I want to try it for a while.
Somebody mentioned already it resembles Phil’s method, I agree, except the time-frame is over a few hours (18 to 04 GMT) and every day.
Your system applied to the EUR/USD and we could have made a nice profit this morning at ~9AM EDT (1300GMT M30), but this is again HINDSIGHT.

484

[QUOTE=Oskar;121394][QUOTE=TREVPICK001;121379]quote from your PDF
Trying to think outside the box we could try implementing chart
patterns into our stratergy to get a idea of a way forward. you are sticking to the original plan of tight 5 pip trailing stops to be honest most of the loosing days would have turned into winning days

Trev, you summed it up already in your PDF.
First part Clint is doing the charting already nicely but then the “muddling as I call it” with your trade while waiting screws it up.
2nd, 5 pips TS is not possible with Oanda (10 minimum) and other brokers.
As I learned last night, the charting demo IBFX is not exactly the same as Oanda and sometimes this matters, but also could go either way.
Conclusion: Your system is good, Clint charting is good, now we need a sort of EA to “Set & Forget” because our own “muddling” is probably when we loose. Hmmmmm, now I speak for everybody instead just for me. :rolleyes:
At least at this point in time I feel that way and that’s why I want to place the trades early and go to bed. When I wake up and check the chart I want to be surprised, One way :eek: or an other :smiley:
Of course I don’t write that in stone but I want to try it for a while.
Somebody mentioned already it resembles Phil’s method, I agree, except the time-frame is over a few hours (18 to 04 GMT) and every day.
Your system applied to the EUR/USD and we could have made a nice profit this morning at ~9AM EDT (1300GMT M30), but this is again HINDSIGHT.

5 pips TS is possible with Alpari UK, an EA is no way going to work with this stratergy, its simple, but it also needs a little attention, im not trying to reinvent a FAP TURBO lol, im trying to stream line a already profitable system so it has a better win/reward ratio

the pdf was more concentrating on pattern into the breakout as a form of identyfying a good trade from a bad trade

I once heard someone say to succed in stocks,futures,indeces or forex you need to be a fortune teller, now none of us can predict the future, but history does have a habbit of reapting itself, with that in mind im looking not for answers but clues to what might happen based on history, some might say that a crap stratergy, infact it could be. but its worth looking at.

im not in to all the double top head and shoulder trading, but i have noticed bigger profit with calmer water just before the break out, that cannot be ignored.

485

I see, you are getting to the point where you think more squiggly, more lines, more … and it will get more pips.
When it comes to charting I think Clint is on the maximum that should be used to try to identify a better chance for more pips.
The next step is actually Tymen’s system, identifying the candles, use STARC & BB, if any could yield more pips then that’s probably the one (wonder if Tymen is not doing it already and keeps it very quiet to himself :D).
But I think we probably would go in the wrong direction. Not because Tymen is wrong (I think he proofs his point with his live winning trades) because the charts are getting more and more cluttered and the more we clutter the more we start second guessing. The more we 2nd guess the more we clutter… just to realize in the end: Your system from page 2,
that’s it!!!
Would be nice if Tymen would answer and shed some light on that. :wink:
Chart with STARC and BB, Starc lines: Red/White/Red, BB: Green/Green/Green
M15.

starcbb.jpg700×400 48.3 KB

486

totally agree the reason i posted my stratergy is becasue i know nothing, i have had a succesfull year with this stratergy, bearing in mind i was made redudant before christmas and have lived of trading profits since, i to have a lot to learn, thats why i like simple simple simple, thats all i understand.

i have alittle girl on the way within the next few weeks and i spend all my time getting this stratergy stream lined althought i expect losses, its the winners that count and 10 pips per day was good but i need a better risk to reward ratio to last into next year unless i want to go back to work and use trading as pocket money.

trust me when im not after squigly lines, Tymens system us candle stick trading, this sytem is not its a break out sytem, but there is nothing wrong with playing around with ideas in the mist of the night.

487

Interesting, is the bowl shape similar to the…what’s that pattern called…teacup patten or cup and handle?
I was looking at some other stuff recently to do with the difference between the highs and lows overnight to see if tighter ranges made for more successful trades after…

488

i have got to be honest i havent a clue, im not into patterns really but i just noticed a trend over the last few weeks and back tested it over the last 2 months it needs more looking at, but defo worth a look

489

Cool - that’s a great bit of analysis, be interesting to look back.
I had these on my todo list:
ADX values during the overnight period and subsequent success rate.
Height of overnight box and subsequent success rate.

490

seems logical that box height would make a difference. shallower box height means narrower range.

491

Ultimately, they’re all just filters. There could be some winners even in wider ranges but without a year’s worth of data, we’re just clutching at ideas because there could be any number of other factors at work here.
I used S&R lines in my analysis the other week and adjusted orders up or down according to this but it made my results worse by meddling too much but that was because I go for a larger target, so if price was within about 50pips of a line, I would move the order. However, it does make more sense when going for less pips.
The overnight channel direction seems to affect trade success at present, which is linked to both the trend (ADX) and box height during the overnight period but there’s so many factors at play, I very much doubt it’s as simple as saying the filter should be this and that…