Win ratio

Beginner Questions
592

wow look at that eur/gbp !

yes I did do a straight market order last night, I was ready for sleep and thought it looked like price was going up so I did a buy. In hind sight I should have set my tp higher more like yours but hind sight is 2020 and greed can be dangerous, plus if my repeating pattern idea is right I would expect a price drop around 8:00 and sure enough there it is. the second price dip I expect around 14:00 but looks like it occured early about 12:00, that’s what I get for trying to predict the future :stuck_out_tongue:

yes when I go live I was thinking of starting with $100 acct. and trade a single .01 micro lot at a time. once (not if) I’m successful and double that to $200 then I’ll increase my lot size to .02 and so on…

edit again
using Alpari demo at work so the gmt ofset is different from at home ibfx. gets confusing. Anyway the dip that faked me out was at about 10:30gmt not 12, and there’s the 14:00gmt dip on schedule. Score 1 for the weatherman.
lol

593

Talon do it now, the longer you wait the more you will second guess and wait to open an account.
If you choose Oanda then you can trade as small as you want without having to choose micro, mini or full.
Drawback: the new US rules, you can not open market order long and short at the same time.
You can place limit order for both and it will trigger one or the other but then it triggers long just to reverse fast and then triggers short on top just to reverse. So you could loose on 2 sides if you don’t cancel the order in between.
Alpari UK you can do what you want, except the spread is bigger, but not always. Oanda has also 3~4 pips spread depend on the time of day.
IBFX lets you set, so far, either long or short but not both, even as limit order. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, Otherwise I may have gone with them.
Either way, life trading IS different then demo even in a small amount.
Good Luck

594

Oscar, I think you are right, I’m ready to try it live. I thik I’d like to go with a UK broker to avoid the new changes in the U.S. I’ve got an IBFX demo acct right now and can’t do this strategy the right way with a pending long and short.

595

Hi guys

i have been away for the last few days hope your all well and more importantly, making money

i have been testing diffrent stratergies over the last week or so as some of you know,

we have been talking about using diffrent tp to R/R ect. ect. and i think i may have improved the exit instead of a straight 50 pip take profit

using the bollinger bands center line it seems that once the trade has been triggerd you get a suden move in price which i think we are all aware off,

when the price moves passed the center line on the 15 minute chart it seem like a good place to exit becasuse it normally carrries on the momtum once passed.

however always a down side even thoe over the course of the month you yield more pips it is a risk when on days like to day using the straigh TP ladder you may of gained more pips

anyways overall i have found this center line as a exit to be 35% more profitable over the course of the month than just taking a straight 50:50

so to recap for those who are intrested

I have been using the 15 Min chart
Bollinger band (center Line)
Stop loss of 50
and i have slightly adjusted the pips above in which i go above or below the overnights to 8 pips not 6
TP when price passes the center line

i want to improve this more but this is where i am at the moment,
samugal if you could incorprate this into your EA that would be wicked (i dont know how difficult that is ) but have a play around and illl be back in the morning for some pips

596

Hey Trev can you show a picture as an example of your exit ?

597

I second that. Thanks

598

hey guys i have attached a chart of the 20 th july all should be familiar except the presents othe bollinger on the 15 minute chart

obviously at the moment i am going to demo test this over the next week to see if it is plausable but i will be exiting the trades manually once the trade has passed the bollinger band

also just to add a bit extra security i will be moving the stop from -50 to Break even once the trade has reached 30 pips profit just in case of a sudden turn around

like i say this needs looking at but from a few hours back testing manually it looks promising,

b4 anybody points it out today wasnt a great day for it we are looking at the overall amount of pips over the full course of the month

The Graph is hard to see but the 20th would have been 100 PIPS

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599

so in this picture, price breaks up follows the upper line of the band and then you exit when the price goes back down and touches the center line of the band?

600

overall yes there is 3 exits i need to test thoe

if

exit when touces
or
passes (5pips for example)
or
candle closes on oposite side to trend.

these are the things that need test but it a nut shell you got it.

obviously this type of trading would be more Screen wacthing but to sqeeze more pips out it could be worth it

601

I’ve got bb bands on but can’t stay up all night to watch it. Looks like the range is shaping up nicely tonight so far.

I was just thinking. looks like I’ve got the box about 24pips from top to bottom. So the maximum stop loss risk wouldnt be much more than that. So the narrower the range the lower the risk.

602

Trevpick,
look at the one form last night? That would have been a tough one. Look how far over the upper BB the candle went (marked red X), then retraced, and shut way down. This all by staying above the middle BB. Of course it could have been just last night. Needs more testing and watching, for sure.

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603

hi all

am just catching up with breakout can i ask what your results are like weekly/monthly

604

Short 1.6452 SL50 TP30
Long 1.6509 SL 50 TP 30

TP 30 or 40? I leave it at 30. I expect a bigger downturn tonight, hmmm I leave the greed out. :slight_smile:

605

Do we have a new channel?

It looks like the GBP/USD has re-defined its channel. It can do that. It can go anywhere, and do anything, it damn well pleases.

All we can do is look at our chart and ask, ‘What is my chart showing me?’ — and then tag along wherever the currency pair chooses to go.

As Mike pointed out, the Overnight Period looks promising tonight.

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Here are the high-impact economic news releases scheduled for the GBP and the USD for this week.

Note that we have CBI Realized Sales figures coming out at 6am EDT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday morning.

Here’s what FF has to say about this report:

Source ---- Confederation of British Industry (latest release)

Why Traders Care ---- It’s a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels;

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More in a couple of hours.

Clint

606

Clint, I was trying to draw trend lines and channels like you do but not really seeing them tonight so it’s interesting to see where you put them.
I said earlier it looks promising but now I’m not so sure, it started heading down and has now turned and headed up so I’m not sure tonight, I’d like to think it’d going to turn again and go down but who knows.
looks like the candle about 2:15 reached the same point as one at 14:30 so maybe that’s a resistance? But right now it’s touching an upper bb band so maybe it’s about to turn around and go south?

I’ve got it up on a 15m chart. If you zoom out to a 1h chart it looks like it’s approaching the point of a large triangle.

I think I’ll set up a sell and go to bed and see what it looks like in the morning

607

Notes on the GBP/USD Breakout Strategy for Monday/Tuesday:

For anyone just joining us, this is a 5-minute chart of GBP/USD Bid prices. The period we refer to as the Overnight Period is boxed in by the green vertical lines (at 18:00 and 04:00 GMT), and the gray horizontal lines marking the HIGH and LOW of the Period. The orange line (Line 121) is the upper boundary of the current short-term channel that the price is following. The nearest significant support and resistance levels are shown on the chart. Additional levels are given below.

The range of the Period has expanded slightly (to the downside) since my previous post. We still have a very narrow range
(HIGH - LOW = 45 pips). The cable doesn’t like to stay in a narrow range for long, so we might get a good breakout this morning.

A couple of things to notice:

If the price wants to break out to the upside, it will have to break through its upper channel boundary line, before it can break the Period HIGH. It’s good for us that the channel boundary is below the Period HIGH. If the Period HIGH is breached, the channel boundary will no longer be in play as a resistance level — in fact, it will become subsequent support.

A break of the Period HIGH means a break of the 1.6500 level, and the cable clearly has issues at that level. It could well break 1.6500 in a stop-hunting attack, and then reverse. Only 23 pips above the Period HIGH there is a STRONG resistance level. So, the initial running room is limited for an upside breakout. The upside continues to make me nervous, as it has for several days now.

I like the downside better, as you probably know from the way I have been splitting my Sell orders lately. Nearby support on the downside is not strong (which is not to say that it can’t hold). If the breakout is to the downside this morning, and if weak support at 1.6436 is breached, then there is a good space of 55 pips before the next support level.

Here are the Resistance and Support Levels for this morning:

R 1.6585 Thurday’s high (15:25 GMT candle) ---- STRONG
R 1.6542 Friday’s high (07:30 GMT candle) ----- STRONG
R 1.6523 Monday’s high (07:10 GMT candle) ----- STRONG

S 1.6436 Monday (07:50 GMT candle)
S 1.6381 Monday’s low ((00:15 GMT candle) ----- STRONG
S 1.6310 Wednesday’s low (07:05 GMT candle) — STRONG

The Period HIGH is 1.6500 bid. I’ll place a Buy Entry order 9 pips above the HIGH, and go for 10 pips profit.

The LOW is 1.6455 bid. I’ll place a Sell Entry order 6 pips below the LOW, and split my position into two halves, going for more profit on the downside.

Here are my Entry Orders:

BUY 1.6509, SL 1.6479, TP 1.6519

SELL 1.6449, SL 1.6479, TP1 1.6419 (for one-half of my position)

SELL 1.6449, SL 1.6479, TP2 1.6389 (for one-half of my position)

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Edit correction: the label marking the Period LOW on the chart should read: LOW — 1.6455

608

i thhink it is fair to say its upto you as diffrent people use diffrent ratios

the stratergy started at 10 pips per day with a sl of 30

but biw most have moved to a more modest 1:1 ratio of 50:50

but you can decide what you want to risk for how many pips you want

609

Removed my Buy Entry order at 04:55 GMT, before it was triggered.

I really don’t like all this congestion around 1.6500

610

interesting, it made a nice breakout to the upside, good for the strategy but I missed it with my one sell order. I still wonder what makes price move. Anyone have an idea why it started that run up at about 4am ?

611

Hi All,
What a surprise. When I made my entry’s last night I taught a moment about what kind of a move it would have to make to get my long.
I gave it a 20% chance to do this sometime today not right from the start.
As far what makes price move? Volume. There is something to the VSA strategy, (look at the volume indicator on my chart). what I don’t get WHO is up that early from the big Market Makers in London or US and pushing it? There is one that has the real power to do this too, China.
Anybody any taught on that?
The middle BB would not have worked out, yet Trevpick, the basic system from page 2 is good. BB is Tymen territory combined with STARC Bands and candlesticks, meaning now we would leave the real simple system.
VSA would more likely fit the combination.
Clint: did you looked at VSA? I was looking yesterday into it since we have a post here about it, I have to read more about it.
Of course, I don’t care on what side (Long or Short) I made my 30 pips, as long as they keep coming. :slight_smile:
I know, my (Friday) is coming in between too.:eek: don’t tease me about it.:slight_smile:

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