I came back before midnight, looked at the chart and decided to quit for the week. Friday’s, my phobia??? 
Maybe I need to see a shrink. 
Hmmmmmmmmmmm, Never visited one since I consider them a bunch of useless people, just my opinion. 
I will check the chart to see what happened after the news release, will be interesting. Right now slow volume, I am curious.
Just changed my mind, I trade the MC this morning.
Long 1.6756
Short 1.6716
SL 15
TP 30 but also watching.
Gambling? yes. Speculate on this MC for the news release. :)?:eek:?:rolleyes:
NFP was leisurely and well-behaved this time. You could have straddled it, or you could have scalped it, without getting killed.
It isn’t always so easy to trade. About half the time, in fact, it’s impossible to trade.
Here’s a 1-minute chart of the first 27 minutes after the release.
Being at work meant I only managed to scalp the break out LONG from consolidation EUR/USD, take my 45 pips and out before the turn south thanks to the better than expected NFP results.
Should have had 150pips on that, but like I say it’s not easy (safe) to be on the button.
I should be happy scalping my 45 in the wrong direction, and I am of course.
Thanks Clint,
Yes I know, it was a gamble, especially on a Friday:)
Now wasn’t that a nice “gamble”? I took the long only.
Now I can say a had a good week, sold yesterday some stocks too I was hanging on for the last 6 month. Finally paid out. 35 cent I paid, sold for 97.1 cents yesterday. Missed them one time when they went 1.05. Still nice.
Have a good weekend all.
Well it’s the end of the first week and here is how it went. 3 wins, 2 losses, so I lost 12 pips.
I would’ve actually won all the trades but Wednesday night I set my entries before midnight and I broke my rules which I paid for.
Next week I’m going to continue the same strategy and see how this plays out.
As usual I set my orders with a 30 pip stop loss and a 20 pip take profit, my buy order was timed out as the market traded flat to down. My sell order was filled at 8 am, the price went up slowly from then but never reached my stop. When the news announcement came the price spiked way past my stop but failed to close at 30 pip loss. After half an hour of lively up and down the market settled on a downward trend. When I opened my platform my sell order was still open and showing a 74 pip profit. I immediately closed and pocketed the cash. This could easily have gone the other way.
I am unable to manage my trades as I would have closed my position prior to the announcement.
Can anyone tell me exactly why my order wasn’t closed at a 30 pip loss?. I appreciate slippage but would like a more precise explanation if possible,
Sounds like a broker execution slip-up. Thanks to the new NFA rules they’re no longer allowed to adjust your trade afterwards if that incurrs a loss for you, which they would have done earlier. Now you get to keep that money, good for you!
Last night the candles were of little help to me there was conslidation on the 15 min candle leading to the Frankfurt open.It broke up going towards 1.6900 i thought for sure it would break down all lagging indicators looked for more downside than a few minutes before Frankfurt the entities that were driving up got the heck out of the way!The currency has been easy to read lately(except last night)with the big swings up consolidation than a continuation up.
Jpy as been a whole different animal, alot of crossovers(range bound)the moves are quick and decisive usually a crossover going the other direction than small moves than rinse and repeat.I guess if i want to trade Jpy i better have a different mind set and trading style.
Had a question about Oanda, but nevermind, I think I got it answered.
Friday Re-cap:
The breakout Friday morning was weak, triggering our Sell Entry orders, but not hitting our TP’s. When we saw that our profit targets weren’t going to be hit, many of us had to limit ourselves out, to capture a small profit before it turned into a loss.
Later the British PPI release produced a small amount of volatility, but still not enough to hit the more ambitious profit targets.
The fireworks came with the U.S. NFP release at 8:30am (New York), 1:30pm (London). NFP was trade-able this month; and,
if you traded it, I hope you did well.
I didn’t trade it, because on Friday I was still using FXCM’s U.S. Trading Station, which has been totally trashed by the NFA’s
latest regulations.
I won’t have that problem anymore. Over the weekend, my account was transferred to FXCM Ltd (UK) — and now I have my stops and limits back, along with hedging capability. I’m glad to have my account out of the reach of the NFA Nazis.
I guess there’s a reason why the U.K. trades twice as much forex volume as the U.S.
The 5-minute chart below shows the action on Friday. The yellow box contains the run-up to the NFP release, the release itself, and the wind-down afterward. The entire “event” took an hour and 45 minutes, and when it was over, the GU was exactly where
it had been before the event started. But, there was a lot of trade-able action in that hour and 45 minutes.
More at 10pm, my time.
Clint
How would you go about trading that? remember I’m still new and trying to learn…
Clint or Trevpick001,
Do you guys normally trade the EST Sunday 5 pm (market closed 3 hours prior to this) time to EST Sunday Midnight high/lows for an EST Monday trade? If yes do you factor in the EST Friday 2pm to 5 pm into your high/low numbers?
The 4am candle is right in the middle of the Asian session isn’t it?
So, isn’t the breakout entirely up to the Asian session traders?
First, my overnight period is 2pm EDT to 12am EDT.
Ok, I’m now set up for the ultimate break out
- This threads current breakout strategy
- The Sunday Breakout strategy
- The Big Ben Breakout Strategy
- The daily20pipdotcom lines plotted
- Also lines plotted from daily candle close and ADR calculation (someone else’s new method they are testing)
I should be set for at least 10 Pips
Hi CLINT
Glad to hear you’ve switched over to a UK FXCM account. Cant understand why the NFA is prohibiting stops and limits? Well I can from our perspective. Let our fine upstanding brokers know your entry/ exit strategy and your fair game. But thats not the reason touted by the NFA for changing the rules! I switched my account when they decided in their wisdom to abolish hedging.
Now the NFA stated that in a nutshell hedging was pointless. They say if you need to hedge your better off closing the trade? But I often trade the 1h chart in a particular direction. But look to the 5 or 15m chart for a temporary and significant retrace. So I might put a hedge position against my longer term 1h position. Then if timed right, I dont loose pips gained and cancel the hedge when price action reverts to the long term direction i’m actually trading. Worst case, I get it wrong but its only cost me the spread.
Cant figure the NFA’s logic at all on this one? Been hedging longer term trades for almost 20 years and i’m still here.
Hi, Mike
The short answer to your question is: either (1) straddle the narrow trading range (that typically occurs prior to the actual NFP release) with Buy and Sell orders (similar to the breakout strategy we use here every morning), or (2) scalp the price surges. Both of these techniques are high-risk, and require fast reflexes.
A complete answer to your question requires much more detail than I have given you here. However, I need to postpone a long discussion about trading NFP, until after Monday’s London breakout (if we get a breakout).
Clint
I’m not sure what Trevor does about the shortened Sunday afternoon/evening set-up period.
What I do is look at Friday afternoon, and decide whether part of it needs to be factored into the Sunday set-up.
In a few minutes, I’ll post the first chart for tonight, and you will see that I have included a large chunk of Friday.
You can, and should, make your own decision about whether to do this, or something similar.
Clint