Win ratio

[QUOTE=TREVPICK001;128014]

well last week my other half give birth to little jessica, althought i tried trading monday and tuesday, i give up the ghost half way thought the week and called it a break , back to normallity this week, hehe

[B]Well, congratulations, Dad!

And, welcome to the world, baby Jessica![/B]

Hey Clint,

My trading platform shows a Friday high of 1.6546. Higher by about 14 pips as compared to yours. This occurred about 5 minutes just before Friday’s close. Are you sure your platform is showing 1.6532?

Hey Trevor,

Congratulation on the addition to your family!

My FXCM-UK live account and demo account both agree on 1.6532 for the high (bid) on the 3:55pm EDT (19:55 GMT) candle.
This is [B]not the Friday high[/B] , but it is the “late-afternoon high” that I’m using for the current Period.

What platform are you using?

I am using FOREXTrader from Forex.com. Forex is a division of GAIN Capital that is a US based company, I believe.

I see high of 1.6546 at about 16:55 EST or 4:55pm EST on Friday Aug 14.

Currently the time here is 1:10 EST Monday am for comparison.

There was an hour difference between the closing time of my platform and the closing time of your platform on Friday. My platform closed at 4pm EDT, yours closed at 5pm EDT.

The last candle on Friday was the 3:55pm candle on my platform (with a high of 1.6532), but the last candle on Friday was 4:55pm on your platform. The price meandered in that hour between the close of my platform and the close of your platform.

We’re in the same time zone, eastern U.S. It’s EDT, not EST, by the way.

Limited out for 20 pips.

I hope you guys made your profit-targets, as well.

Have a great day.

Clint

Well I have been checking the numbers to make sure. Sometimes that one hour can make a difference. Your high was about 14 pips away so I thought I would mention it. Most of the time our numbers are within 1 pip of each other.

However I am happy to report it made no difference as our trade on the low end came in just a few minutes ago. In keeping with the strategy, buy trade cancelled. Great work Clint.

Yes EDT. I guess I got used to EST - Eastern Standard Time.

Sideline question:
Once a trade is initiated, “normally”, how long does it take for the TP price to hit? Was todays price action fairly normal?

It sounds like I’ve confused you. Our platforms are not one hour out of sync with each other — they just shut down at different times on Friday. (And possibly they open up at different times on Sunday.) It’s up to each broker to decide exactly when to close for the weekend (and when to start back up).

As for your question, things went a little early this morning. It’s more normal for the breakout to [B]begin[/B] about 2am-2:30am EDT.

But, [B]everything[/B] was a little abnormal this time. Rather than a flat, narrow range for several hours during the Asian session, followed by a sharp spike up or down when Europe opens, what we had instead this time was a steady downward-moving market throughout the Asian session, followed by a continuation in the same direction before and during the European opening (at 2am EDT).

You could draw a pretty neat channel around the price action from Friday’s close until now. That is not a typical “breakout” pattern.

Thanks for the info. I did not know brokers closed at different times on Friday.

I got a little scare there about 10 min into the trade my computer froze, then Oanda kicked me off the platform was able to get back on. The market moved against me about 8 pips 1.6432 when i got back on.Currency pairs are strongly trending tonight i wish i got on when Asian market opened up,i felt like i missed the bus.:smiley:

             In 1.6424 out 1.6410  (Total 2-3 +19ips +some pipettes live)
                       :) Every body have a great mourning!

Congratulations mate !

well last week my other half give birth to little jessica, althought i tried trading monday and tuesday, i give up the ghost half way thought the week and called it a break , back to normallity this week, hehe[/QUOTE]

Congrats to the new Daddy, and
Jessica, cry, cry as soon as he wants to step away from that computer. After all, he has to take care of you. Wish you a happy future and “may the force be with you”. :slight_smile:
We had a nice start for this week, hope we keep it up.

Congrats

and a good win last night. One question though

got my 20 pips but with a big move like that could have got more. Is there a good way to capture something like that ? Trailing stop maybe? Any adivice on setting up a trailing stop on our regular strategy every night ? or is that not a good idea ?

Firstly thank you all for your kind comments

with trailing stops you need to be carfull that they dont actrually cause you to get stopped out to soon, you will need to macth an ideal tariling stop to your plan in line with your take profit target i have tried trailing stops however overall they did not improve performance dromasticly as one day i get lots of pips and the next day i got 1 pip so you need to stream line it so it benifits you

Scooped up 20 pips last night, it was great, while I could’ve gotten more yes but I was asleep so 20 pips while sleeping is not something that I’m complaining about. I’ve been thinking about trailing stops and did very little backtesting (about 2 weeks worth, nothing that far back) and I would’ve lost some pipage so I’m sitting with my TP of 20 and SL of 30.

I’ve tested 186 trades based on 30SL 30TP and 9 buffer and got 59% winners. When I take out Fridays, I get 62% winners on 149 trades. So it appears worthwhile to take an early weekend.

Very interesting.

A few more details please.

Did add a 9 pip buffer on to both the buy and sell. Would you results change much if you used a 6 pip buffer on the sell side.

What time periods did you base you sell and buy price on and when would you enter your trade?

Did you have to run the test manually or did you use some program to calculate those numbers? If you used a program, what program was it?

Did you try using 30SL and 20TP over the same period (with 9 pip buffer on buy and 6 pip buffer on sell)? If yes what was the percentage of wins?

What buffer do you use? +/-6?

Hey guys, as a noob I am trying to distill this strategy into an encapsulated form so I can study and learn it. I took some of the posts I bookmarked here and edited them into one page of detailed instructions.

Can you please note anything I screwed up or important notes I should add that I may have missed?

[B]London[/B][B] Breakout Strategy[/B]

GBP/USD

[ul]
[li]Draw two lines, one at 19:00 London time and one at 05:00 London time; you now have your overnight time frame.[/li]> [li]Draw two lines, one at the highest price between the two overnight times and another at the lows.[/li]> [li]Count 6 pips above the highest price and set a pending order to buy there.[/li]> [li]Count 6 pips below the lows and set a sell order at that price.[/li]> [/ul]

Really what you want to do with your stop-loss (SL), Take Profit (TP) and Trailing Stop (TS) is up to you. I risk no more than 30 pips and only took two losses in 6 months at that figure. More importantly is your choice for what TP/TS you want. I go for small pips; some might want to go for more.

It�s important that these pending orders are set by 5 a.m.London time; otherwise you will most likely miss out. And once the first trade has taken place I cancel the other, so it makes my day short and sweet.

NOTE: Charts usually show Bid prices, not the Ask price. You buy at the Ask, sell at the Bid. So if you want to allow a 6 pip buffer on either side of the high and low you will need to allow an extra buffer for the long - otherwise it will be hit early.

For example, the high was 1.0000. Assume a 3 pip spread for GBP/USD. You allow a 6 pip buffer on the long so your order would be filled at 1.0006. However, this is when the ask price reaches 1.0006. At that time the bid on your chart would only be at 1.0003. So, instead you add the spread to the long and your order is set for 1.0009. This is only for longs; you do not need to change shorts.

WARNING: The GBP/USD Breakout Strategy is off the table when - in the 8-hour (or 10-hour) period leading up to 04:00 GMT - you don’t see:

[ul]
[li]A narrow trading range with[/li]> [li]A trade-able HIGH and LOW.[/li]> [/ul]

Also avoid if:

[ul]
[li]The Period HIGH on the 01:00 GMT candle is too close to resistance levels from last period (on the 19:50 GMT candle and the 10:35 GMT candle).[/li]> [li]And the Period LOW is too close to the end of the Period, and it has already been broken.[/li]> [/ul]

GBP/USD

* Draw two lines, one at 19:00 London time and one at 05:00 London time; you now have your overnight time frame.
* Draw two lines, one at the highest price between the two overnight times and another at the lows.
* Count 6 pips above the highest price and set a pending order to buy there.
* Count 6 pips below the lows and set a sell order at that price.

[B]we are looking for around 6 pips above and below the highs and lows correct however on the high you need to account for the spread so 9 pips is ideal if you have a 3 pip spread [/B]

this stratergy has a good entry, you can change your exit rules to suit your trading, when i first started this i was using a Tp of 10 and a SL of 30 however i use more of a 30/50 now days
[B]
dont worry about what the win ratio is over six months its not important what important is your money mangment skills ie what risk to reward ratio you want to use and how much you risk of your overall capital in any 1 trade[/B]

It�s important that these pending orders are set by 5 a.m.London time; otherwise you will most likely miss out. And once the first trade has taken place I cancel the other, so it makes my day short and sweet.
[B]
its not critical these trades are set bang on 5 as it normally takes a hour or 2 to break but its good to get up and to some chart analysis so we know ware we are and what happend overnight [/B]

[B]what i suggest is demo for a month with us follow clints (CLINTS A GOD AT CHARTING) advice and follow the discusion and you will pick things up as you go along, hopefullly all will become clear as it not a overally complicated stratergy
[/B]

welcome and hello