Think it will be low volume tomorrow? NFP + traders might take friday off because of labor day on Monday? However, should this affect the breakout which is predominantly Asian/Euro traders?
Hereās what NFP did to the London Breakout last month.
The most you could have made was 17.7 pips profit, and you had to wait until 08:55 GMT to get that.
Here are the numbers: LOW 1.6743 (bid), Sell @ 1.6737 (bid), TP @ 1.67193 (ask) which was the dayās low (ask) prior to the NFP release.
Tough week for the breakout strategy. Still ahead of the game for this week.
Hope it does hold for tonight too.
Long 1.6351
Short 1.6297
So whats the call for this evening guys?
Entered a short at 1.6383 and thinking of closing it out and heading for bed (03:41 here). Any ideas?
Thanks OSCARā¦ didnt update page before askingā¦ Iāll close out and get some sleep. 
Notes on the London Breakout Strategy for Friday morning:
Thursday morningās 150-pip upmove between 05:00 and 11:40 GMT happened in five steps.
Depending on where you entered Long, and what your profit target was, you might have limited out after the London open.
On the other hand, if you had your entry set way above the Period HIGH, as I did, then you had to trade the news at 08:30 GMT in order to hit your TP. Thatās what I did, and it worked. But, it was just luck ā I had no special reason to think that the news coming out at 08:30 would extend the upmove. It just as easily could have gone in the other direction. Thatās why Iāve said before, if you get into one of these news-trades, you are no longer trading the London Breakout Strategy ā youāre trading a news strategy.
Speaking of news, Friday is the 600-pound gorilla of news, the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report (NFP). Donāt be surprised if there is no trade-able breakout this morning, as the market waits for NFP.
But, just in case Iām wrong about that, and a good breakout materializes, here are S/R levels to be aware of:
Resistance and Support Levels for Friday morning:
R ā 1.6450
R ā 1.6413 ā September 3 high ā STRONG
R ā 1.6400 ā century mark
R ā 1.6375 ā September 1 high ā STRONG
H ā 1.6343 ā Period HIGH
L ā 1.6303 ā Period LOW
S ā 1.6275 ā August 17 low ā VERY STRONG
S ā 1.6260/47 ā August 26, 27, 31, and September 1 multiple candle highs and lows
S ā 1.6234/30 ā August 26, 27, 31, and September 1 multiple candle highs and lows
S ā 1.6200 ā century mark
Scheduled News Releases:
Out of Britain: no news releases, with the possible exception of the Halifax Bank of Scotland House Price Index. The date of release for this report is not announced in advance. Presently, the release date is stated as September 4-7. Iām guessing Halifax will avoid releasing this report on the day of U.S. NFP, and will release it next Monday, instead. Some months this report is released at 06:00 GMT, just as Europe is opening. Other months, itās released at 08:00 GMT. If, for some reason, they choose to release it this morning, things could get interesting.
Edit: Forex Factory has just updated the Calendar showing the Halifax HPI report to be released next week ā
Iām guessing Wednesday (they seem to like Wednesdays).
Out of the U.S: Non-Farm Payroll report, and the U.S. Unemployment Rate, both reports to be released at 8:30am EDT (12:30 GMT).
Here is everything you might want to know about Fridayās NFP report:
US Nonfarm Payrolls Contends with Thin Liquidity for the Dollarās Attention
Entry Orders:
BUY 1.6352, SL(30), TP(20)
SELL 1.6297, SL(30), TP(20)
Iām back to a R:R of 3:2 on both the Buy and the Sell, because I donāt want to put my TP above the 1.6375 resistance,
or below the 1.6275 support.
The risk during the early morning hours, as I see it, is a weak breakout that hits your entry price, fails to reach your TP, and wanders in negative territory until the NFP release. After that, the risk is obviously the NFP itself. I probably wonāt attempt to trade the NFP.
Good luck this morning.
Clint
Yes, itās the box range. Today the range would look very lucrative, as it is only 40 pips. I place my TP accordingly with some common sense involved, and SL 6 pips below or 10 pips above that range (my spread is 4 pips). Now there is NFP to come, and Iām expecting to see violent whipsawing before that TP would get hit - so Iām staying out today. But Wednesday was a great example of this SL working. It was just below the resistance line and saved the trade to be profitable, while even 50 pip SL failed.
And note that I vary the size of my position according to the risk. Double risk means half-sized position. So the profits and losses should be roughly the same all the time.
This week has been a success. I stayed out on Monday, and that day would have been a fiasco. 3 profitable trades, no losses.
Peleb:
Today 10-50 was profitable. If you place you entry above the high 19 pm - 05 am London time, then sl wouldnāt be triggered. It was a high at 17 h candle(1.6299) - two ours before begening of non trading time, and I place my order above thath high and my sl was hited.
My conclusion: do it like robot does and will be profitable:).
You are right. I was only looking at that 1.6309 entry. Well, maybe with this system you would indeed need to ignore all resistance levels and alike. But coming news like today could still be worth considering, just for making the decision whether to trade or not. Iām not daring to trade 50-40 now, and am expecting that 10-50 would be a sure loss today. As always, anything can happen, but this is how I see it now.
Yeah, the London overnight breakout has been very sketchy again this week, my two wins just barely beating my one bad loss (when Tuesday overnight stopped out the entire range!).
Again tonight I see this irritating mini-breakout in the 2 am hour (which almost certainly isnāt the true breakout but rather more of this stop-hunting weāve been seeing the past two weeks), nudging just above resistance. As Clint mentioned, without the news to push the price up, weād have likely got another bad retracement last night.
So that, combined with NFP, will keep me out, as well.
This was my very first week of Live trading and - despite the ups and downs - I finished the week with a very good day today (75 pips) and can say I grew my (very modest) trading account by 10%. Looking forward to fewer rookie mistakes and bigger returns in the weeks to follow.
If it looks like stop-hunting, and it smells like stop-hunting, I really think it must be stop-hunting.
Maybe Iāll come back for NFP, and do some REVENGE TRADING!
Yes me too, i did not take trade today, it is always tight range on the NFP day so better stay a side.
Wellā¦+51.5 for the week and would have been +71.5 if Iād stayed out of todayās trade like I knew I should have
Have a good weekend everyone.
Yes the stop hunters were out tonight, and i was was waiting for them.
I guess they thought -32 pips is all they needed to get us out of our trade.I took out the other six shooter and started firing at.1.6328 and they went up like the big baby pips that they are.
Everybody have a great weekend !!!
well, I just got out with a BE. Still, this strategy gained me 70pips this week. Mo30, Tue60, We-50, Thu30 and today nothing.
Have a nice weekend all.
Been thinking the same thing. Hopefully that netted you some good pips.
Excellent work Oskar. Had you entered today you would have also made your 30.
I have been testing a few other combinations and overall this week was better than last week. Hopefully the trend will continue for next week.
Everyone have a great long weekend:).
So Oskar are you staying firm with your 30/50 TP/SL ratio? That really isnāt far off from what Iāve been trading most nights, 24/48.
I guess the only question I might have for you is whether you are still setting your entry points just 9 points above and 3 points below the range. Iāve reread all your most recent posts going back some ways and didnāt catch what your strategy is for entry points, if it is different from the rest of us.
Firstfx iam testing out a strategy on demo by breaking up my entrys into two 30/70 .Waiting for second entry 30 to 40 points below trigger to try and counter act stop hunting or support and resistence that seems to be happening the last few weeks on this method so far so good.
Recap of the week. I thought to make this only at the end of the month, but maybe it does not do any harm to start a bit early.
Firstly, somebody noted earlier that this system does not have a name. Well, hereās my suggestion, as itās difficult to talk about something that does not have a name. We have been talking about London breakouts for a long time. So this would be then the London Breakout System, or more conveniently LBS. Now there are a number of variations out there, mainly around the placement of SLs and TPs. They could be appended to the end like LBS/10-50, the stop being mentioned first. Now Iām basing my trades on the overnight box range, so let that be then LBS/B.
So, five trading days, each one defining two potential trades, ten trades total. Some of them you take, some you donāt. Some of them are successfull, some are not. This is how it looked with me:
- 3 trades taken, all profitable.
- 2 trading days ignored, which both would have turned to crap.
- 3 second trades of the day ignored. One of them would have been profitable, two would not have fired anyway.
- 2 trades ended prematurely by manual intervention.
So the results and could-have-been results look like the following:
- All 10 trades attempted --> total loss 20 pips. (Not a good system.)
- Only the first trade attempted every day --> total profit 40 pips. (By robot trading.)
- Realised: +90 pips. (Iām happy about this.)
- The 3 profitable trades played to the book and the two others ignored --> total profit 150 pips. (Could have been possible.)
- Absolute maximum profit with my reasoning (i.e. the one profitable trade taken as well) = 190 pips. (Luck needed, which is not a good thing in trading.)
The pip calculations do not tell the whole truth, because the position sizes vary. But what is more important: the sample size of one week of real trades is very small to make too big conclusions. Nevertheless, I dare to conclude the following:
- Better use common sense on selecting the trading days.
- Better let the trade run by itself, i.e. not to move the SL e.g. to BE.
- The second trade: not sure, but I still prefer ignoring it in any case. I donāt see this as an important contributor to the profits anyway. And the second trade may totally fall out of the London breakout time anyway, like today.
(I apologize if this post is an overkill for such a small numberof trades!)
Hey guys, sorry for quoting such an old post. I noted this down a while ago as it looked kinda handy but now that I come to use it it doesnāt make sense to me.
Say you risk 4 to gain 1 (or risk 1 for 0.25 gain) which is a 4:1 RR.
And you lose 80 trades and win 20. Plumb those numbers into the formula and you get:
4/1 * 80/20 = 16
16 is greater than 1 but such results certainly wouldnāt be profitable?
Hi merchant,
As you mentioned, āmost nightsā. I did the same on the beginning, changing my SLās and gave up very quick on it. I lost a couple trades by just 1~3 pips with SL40 and 1 with SL35. As you know even with 50 you can loose but right now, SL50 is my top loss I am willing to loose. something like an emergency brake.
Original on page 2, 6pips above highest candle on the long and 6pips on the short.
Thatās Trevpick very original one. Just in case some people forgott.
I add 3pips for the spread this is only a guess since Oanda widens the spread early morning. One time it was 11, yes, [B]eleven[/B] pips.
So far SL50 worked out.
Yes, I stick with it.
Have all a nice weekend