What a nice repeat of Monday/Tuesday. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr :rolleyes: 
Brilliant run in the last half of August - lol.
Yeah, I think Iām done with this, guys. If I want to lose vast amounts of pips on a daily basis I think I can do that with my shaky daytrading, LOL.
Merchantprince
So the pennies finally dropped? Good decision. The idea is good but the set and forget part needs a re-think. 
Iāve said it before, ādonāt trade unless you can be infront of the monitor!ā
I had a quick visual check of the trades since Aug. 13th with LBS/B/1, assuming that all trades are scaled so that they are equal in risk and profit every day. So you donāt need to compare pips, just the number of profitable trades against losing ones.
Results: winning trades = 14; losing trades = 6.
Of the losing ones four have occurred when I have been trading this system live, and I have successfully avoided three of them. So the result would look like 14 to 3, which is not bad at all in my eyes. (This of course assumes that I wouldnāt have skipped any trades in August for any reason.)
Reasons for skipping a trade so far: irratic overnight pattern (31.8.), NFP (4.9.), bank holiday (7.9.).
Today it was just a tax day that is part of this business. Iām not losing my faith in this.
R Carter:
The idea is good but the set and forget part needs a re-think.
The way I am trading this is almost set-and-forget. Once the first trade has triggered, I try to be able to cancel the second one manually (and thatās just because my broker does not have that kind of OCO orders available), but after that I let the surrounding conditional OCO do its job. And so far so good - manual intervention has only done harm to me (well, maybe it would not had done so today, but in general it is so).
Thanks. And I havenāt ignored your email, by the way. Iām still trying to puzzle out your MA method; my skills deciphering veteran traderās explanations are still in their nascent phase. :o
Merchantprince
Its real simple like me. 
Have a 15m & 1h GU chart open at all times. Set up a 7/14 LWMA on the 15m and 2/4 LWMA on the 1h. Both charts also need to have a 2 std dev bollinger.
[B]Trade 1[/B]) When price breaks the upper/lower bollinger on the 1h its usually overbought/ sold. Wait for a wick and a change of candle colour and trade the opposit way (towards the centre line bollinger).
[B]Trade 2[/B] Using the LWMA is really simple. On the 15m chart set the 7 LWMA to green. Set the 14 LWMA to red. When green is on top trade long. When red is on top trade short. Same with the 1 h chart.
Start a thread about this one because itās quite an interesting one actually - been reading about it also. The high percentage trades are the ones where price exceeds the bollinger by 50% but you have to be real careful not to get caught in a trend when you are counter trading it. Must practice this on a demo first. You could add a stochastic 5,3,3 as extra confirmation but then weāre getting into overcomplex indicators and all the false signals they give.
Trade 2 is a trend follower - do you ever use 5/8 SMAs - good for day trading. 13 period bollinger is good for day trading too.
[B]ā¦but weāre kind of off topic now.[/B]
SanMiguel
Yes 5/8 basically stradles the 7 LWMA. I find that for the inexperienced trader its better to put up three or four maās all the same colour. Say on the 15m chartā¦ 3/6/9/12 LWMA. It gives a clearer idea visually. I prefer the 20 period bollinger because it tends to be the one most traders use.
Your right of course this rocks during the London - New York close.
My mistakeā¦ London open - New York close.
hi rcarter
bit a of newbie here so sorry if these seem really simple questions :o
do you wait for price to close outside the bollinger first and then enter on the next changed colour candle whether that be the next or say three candles time?
could you clarify what you mean when you say āwait for a wickā. does the wick have to break back into the band before you enter the trade?
thanks
Verbatim
Very good questionsā¦ perhaps I should start a new thread on this as SanMiguel suggests.
First. Iād stay away from trading like this outside of London open - New York close. To get good reliable pips there needs to be volume trades. Take a look at GU on the 15m just now and youll see what I mean. Theres no real drive in any direction. Asian might change that when it opens?
As SanMiguel states Trade 1 is a little riskier than Trade 2 in that you are counter trading the trend. But if price āwicksā outside the bollinger on a 1h chart and then theres a change of colour candle its usually good for a counter trend trade. A wick is the upper or lower part of a single candle. The thin line bit of an otherwise solid candle. Wicks are a good indication of a possible change of direction.
Its difficult to be specific about when to enter the trade in terms of at this or that exact time. Sometimes price will make several wicks before a change of course. The classic is two wicks and a change of colour on the 1h chart. But sometimes there is just one. So the basic principal is a wick outside of the bollinger then a subsequent change of colour candle and enter the trade.
LWMA trading (trade 2) is easier in that you can see when the maās are moving a particular way. Classic entry is when they line up in a particular direction. Often on the 1h chart this coincides with trade 1.
You can use an effective combination of the two. Say enter when maās line up and exit outside the bollinger on a reverse wick.
Hope this helps?
volume starts moving already.
Long 1.6559
Short 1.6517
Hmmmmmm, looks good to me.
Will have a look in an other hour.
Oskar
It looks a pretty even split so far on tomorrows breakout? I couldnāt call it thats for sure even on the 4h. Best of luck tonight/ tomorrow guys!
[B]Notes on Tuesday night / Wednesday morning:[/B]
Last nightās set-up looked promising, but turned into a big disappointment. The wimpy breakout to the upside was enough
(just barely!) to earn you 10 pips, if you happened to be using Trevorās original strategy ā but, most of us have been modifying his original strategy, mainly with larger SLās and TPās. So, for us, that fake-out break-out was a sure loser, unless you stayed up
to baby-sit your trade, and saw the up-move stall, and had the wisdom to bail out before a piddly profit turned into a loss.
It wasnāt supposed to work this way.
If your TPās were 25 pips or larger, and if you set your orders, went to bed, and let the system run, you lost on both ends (unless you used an OCO function to cancel your sell order). Depending on the size of your SLās, Wednesday morning could have been very costly for you. It wasnāt supposed to work this way.
I think itās ironic that I could have made 80 pips profit this morning, [B]if I had just entered my orders backwards:[/B]
SELL at the HIGH + 9 pips, and BUY at the LOW - 6 pips. It wasnāt supposed to work this way.
We need some new thinking on this Strategy. Out-of-the-box thinking (no pun intended). I know that several of you are trying some radical new approaches to the original strategy, and I hope that your efforts pay off. I hope that someone will be able to solve the problem of these fake-out break-outs that keep trapping us, and costing us pips. (I refer to these as stop-hunting expeditions ā but, who knows whether thatās really whatās going on.) I hope that you guys who are experimenting with bold,
new approaches to this strategy will share your results ā good or bad ā when you have tested your ideas.
Itās clear that Trevorās original strategy worked exceptionally well 6, or 8, or 10 months ago. Since then, the marketās ābio-rhythmsā have changed. And weāve done extensive tinkering with the original strategy. It wasnāt supposed to work this way.
Maybe we broke it. Letās fix it.
[B]Notes on the London Breakout Strategy for Thursday morning:[/B]
A nice, orderly consolidation in the box, and an incredibly narrow 28-pip range! S/R levels for Thursday morning will be similar to Wednesday morning, because the GBP/USD is basically back where it was 24 hours ago.
[B]But, Thursday morningās news events will not be a repeat of Wednesday[/B]. Scheduled news releases coming out between 08:00 and 11:00 GMT might hold the GBP/USD market hostage throughout the London breakout period. See below for details.
[B]
Resistance and Support Levels:[/B]
R ā 1.6624 ā August 21 high --[B] VERY STRONG[/B]
R ā 1.6610 ā August 20 high --[B] STRONG[/B]
R ā 1.6600 ā century mark
R ā 1.6586/91 ā September 8 high / September 9 high ā [B]VERY STRONG[/B]
R ā 1.6564/68 ā September 8 multiple candle highs ā [B]STRONG[/B]
[B]H ā 1.6550 ā Period HIGH
L ā 1.6522 ā Period LOW[/B]
S ā 1.6500 ā century mark
S ā 1.6481/70 ā September 9 congestion area ā [B]STRONG [/B]
S ā 1.6454 ā September 9 low ā [B]VERY STRONG[/B]
S ā 1.6443 ā September 7 high
s ā 1.6418 ā September 6 high
[B]Scheduled News Releases:[/B]
Halifax Bank of Scotland House Price Index at 08:00 GMT. ā[B] high impact[/B].
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee data releases at 11:00 GMT:
(1) Asset Purchase Facility ā[B] high impact[/B]. This refers to the printing of funny-money to be used by the British government to purchase assets in the open market. It is also called āquantitative easingā.
(2) Official Bank Rate ā [B]high impact[/B]. The official interest rate has been 0.5%, and is forecast to remain at 0.5%. Any change in this rate would probably rock the market.
(3) Rate Statement (if issued) ā [B]high impact[/B]. This is the official explanation regarding the Bank Rate, and usually contains hints about future MPC policy. Statements always accompany rate changes, but are not usually issued if there is no change in the interest rate.
Until these news items are out of the way, I donāt expect much action from the GBP/USD. Itās possible that the market will remain in a holding pattern until after the following U.S. news releases at 12:30 GMT:
(1) U.S. Trade Balance figures for July ā [B]high impact[/B].
(2) U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims for last week ā [B]high impact[/B].
[B]Entry Orders:[/B]
Iām going to use Trevorās original strategy this morning: TP(10) and SL(30) but without the trailing stop (trailing stops and I donāt get along very well). I will actively manage this thing (half expecting a repeat of Wednesday morningās āstop-huntingā). If the market starts acting like itās constipated, Iāll just close everything ā I wonāt hang around for news to start hitting.
If youāre using a set-it-and-forget-it strategy this morning, good luck. Youāre a better man than I am, Gunga Din!
Clint
I certainly have more questions but donāt want to clutter this thread and take away from the London Breakout discussion any more than we have.
Can I persuade you to open that new thread just for your MA method?
Merchantprince
Iāve a better idea. You set up the thread and PM me where iām supposed to go and iāll come to play. Iām old school. Canāt even text on my cell.
Once again, the London Breakout Strategy failed completely on the BUY side. And, so far this morning, itās only been good for a maximum of 17 pips on the SELL side. Even the news at 08:00 GMT failed to kick-start a breakout.
I hope you guys didnāt get hurt again.
Even before the Overnight Period had closed, I changed my mind about trading the Breakout Strategy this morning. I canceled my Breakout orders, and decided to trade pull-backs, instead.
I went SHORT at 1.6560 and LONG at 1.6510 with SL(30) and TP(30) both ways. Both trades worked ā but, this was exactly opposite of the London Breakout Strategy.
If weāre going to salvage the London Breakout Strategy, we need to formulate some new rules. We have our work cut out for us.
Hello Clint,
first of all I like to thank you for your contributions in this thread and to this forum. I really appreciate it.
Iāve been following this thread for quite sime time now and I have started to place live trades according to the London Breakout Strategy rules for the first time, yesterday. And again today.
I did make an adjustment by choosing entry points according to my ATR 14 readings on a 1h chart. I choosed to place BUY orders higher and SELL orders lower than suggested. Instead of +/- 9 pips adjustment I choose 1 full ATR 14 period prior before entering my orders.
Also I placed my BUY/SELL orders just prior 7am GMT because it was suggested in one post in this thread that London Breakouts tend to be around 7am - 9am GMT.
Both trades, yesterday and today, yielded a considerable profit for me using the methodology suggested in this thread.
Rgds,
cas
Cas,
that ATR 14 is a nice-sounding idea. I need to give it some further thought. Yesterday and today I got beaten, but Iām not worried yet, such things happen.
Let me ask you a couple of clarifications:
How did you place your SL and TP?
Why ATR 14? Did you think about ATR 10 as the overnight period is 10 hours? (Just asking out of curiosity - I really donāt know if this ATR period length has any bigger importance here, except that during those 4 hours before the overnight period there is usually a bit more volatility, and that could have an impact on the ATR value.)