Wise or waste?

Beginner Questions
1

I am done I tell ya. (( You tell me, is it wise use of time or a wasteful use of time? ))

A couple of years sometimes hard effort sometimes no effort. But, and I’ll just say it very briefly, but, I can’t win for losing. it is taking a toll, especially mentally. This thing called forex.

I’ve concluded, that at this time I can’t. . and I think I know why. to much passion, or I am way to close to the situation . . however you want to say it. . . still searching for they HG?

I’m going to quit thinking - and quit trying to find a system that works.

I am going to turn off the brain.

The remainder of 2011 I am planning on trading ONLY four trades, and simply taking everyone and taking notes, so after 2011, I can compile the statistics on those 4 trades ONLY.

I’ve spent 2 + years system hopping, EA creating, in la la land. with no hard conclusive evidence of any sort - how can I expect to learn??

I think the only way is experience - so here goes. Feb 2011 til Dec 31, 2011.

4 trades basically summed up as
point 1 - an impulse move of ‘significance’ (1hr, 4hr and Daily ONLY)(I am a working fella, so I will allow me missign a few 1hr trades here and there)
point 2 - a retrace to at least 50% up to 61.8% then
A CBL formation in this range will be an entry
point 3 - a move back away from that retrace number
point 4 - a move back TO that retrace number (see purplepatchforex’s 1 picture thread)
A CBL formation at this point will be an entry.

So Above I mention 2 entries - so for a total of 4 trades I plan on doing that both long and short on all forex pairs.

So pretty much good bye for now, I have family, and other more important things to worry about.

So I turn my brain off to forex. I am simply collecting data for the next 11 months.

2

You’ve almost got it right.

Turn off the systems.

Look at a chart.

No indis. No preconceived notions of what may or may not happen.

No trying to ride “waves”, that’s still trying to predict things.

It’s really easy when you take all the distractions off the table, and stop trying to predict.

3

So ‘almost’ - I would be super keen to know what would make you say, “now you’ve got it right” vs. the almost?

what would you change?

Again thank you for your positive comment(s)/outlook.

4

Right.

Wrong.

See all the thinking?

5

ok, I am going to bite.

I know you mentioned several times in several threads, and have asked for the “flames”.
You believe the EVERY trade is a winner. and with that EVERY trade also can become a loser. . . .

I’ve posted a rebutle on that in the only way that won’t work is if you buy for some reason at a 100 year high . … . etc… . I won’t bother you with that, but I guess you may remember.

So I do buy into your theory yes, in fact the first EA i created was a 100% winner. A simple cross that had a TP of 10 and there wasn’t a SL . . so every order eventually hit TP (except of course that last trade at the end of the test)

but, my big fear with that is a 900 pip drawdown for a 10 pip TP?? that cannot happen if a fella expects to actually make some $.

so I am all ears/eyes.

6

I think you need to spend a few hours and then more many many more hours on youtube watching strategies and get one that makes sence to you and you will find many more like it keep watching vidies on there and stareing at charts till you can almost spot the trades without even trying. But then I am still a newb so take my advise with a grain of salt. But there are simple strategies that you see on here all the time that work. Trend trading find a trend that goes into a point of consolidation find support and resistance in the consolidation and set a buy in and sell just past the support and resistance levels (keep in mind to find a tight enough channel of support and resistance to keep with you tolerance of risk. Once the trade starts to trend either way it goes you have a entry point and once it goe far enough move your stop loss to break even and trail the trend. Watch the videos on youtube to get more detail stratagies on that. Of keep looking for one that is more to your liking. There are millions of videos on there most are crap but some are really good.

7

I read a statement once from a very well respected, and extremely successful trader.

I am loathe to find it, I wish to god I could.

He basically put it all out there in a riddle.

He said:

“Retail traders lose money because they trade the wrong side of the line.”

It took 2 years+ after I read that, for it to make sense.

How long will it take you?

And your 100% win system was OHSOCLOSE to being right;)

8

By the way, I didn’t really ask for the “flames” I was prepared for them though.

I heave read posts from occasional new users that show up here, and they get tarred and feathered in short order. And they really did have something to offer.

The reason being, what actually works in this business flies in the face of conventional thinking.

We retailers are at a supreme disadvantage.

We get our feeds from less than stable market makers.

We get higher spreads.

We get our news late.

We get aced out of weekend action, (unless you are with Oanda) leading to potential stopouts that REALLY hurt.

And those are the tip of the iceberg.

So how do we combat it?

Think outside the box.

The carrot in front of your nose is leverage…

Friend? Or your worst nightmare?

9

I DO remember that.

And in those statements are the crux of what works.

Look at this chart. It’s roughly the last 4 years of the euro.

Could you have made money buying? And could you have made money selling?

can you make money.jpg700×340 19.4 KB

Believe it or not, everything you need is in my last three posts on this thread.

It’s just how you piece it together.

I’m not gonna hand it to you on a platter.

Nor should I. It means more when you find it.

10

The carrot in front of your nose is leverage…

Friend? Or your worst nightmare?

Owe owe I know this one. It is your best friend till it leads you off a cliff lol.

One last piece of advise from a newb instead of only making 4 trades a year witch will take you a thousand years to get a consistent strategy. Go back to demo trading and keep a journal and go back to the journal all the time to see where you make mistakes so you learn from them. And trade demo all year and then you will see a consistant mind set that make you pip or looses you pips. And dont just keep a journal of where you entered and placed a stop loss and you exit. Be honest with yourself what did you see to take the trade? Why did you place a stop loss where you did? How you felt about the trade. Try to put as many notes to that aspect as possible you get a true idea of why you win or loose. I wish you the best man I really do.Your strategy there seems good but yes there was alot of thinking involved. But honestly I think you are on the right page just need to simplify it better. But you will only successfully do that if you are not losing money (unless you have plenty to lose then yes you are wasting your time with forex buy a yaught and travel the 7 seas or what ever you like to do with your life). So try it on a demo I know of a few brokers that have unlimited time on demos without putting in money to a live account.

11

this is the plan, I only do 4 types of trades, and as many as present themselves on the 1hr 4hr or daily TF - -so I figureabout 1 trade per week per pair so lots of data - not just 4 trades per year.

yep, I had about 3 ‘styles’ or thoughts on retrace value, and or volume info, and or size of initial move - so I planned on collecting tons of notes.

I am hoping to provide a home for my family - no 7 seas, no yacht, just some braces for my daughter and a bedroom too.
[/quote]

a penny pip = demo, you never lose a whole bunch at a penny

12

a penny pip = demo, you never lose a whole bunch at a penny[/QUOTE]

I hear you there I deal with penny pips to but even I have lost some money last year but yeah you dont really feel it till you add it up at the end of the year what you would have had. But in the end it was just beer money anyway lol

13

Stop thinking amounts, and start thinking percentages.

14

ok, I don’t know if this is what you meant, but. . going outside the box a bit.

and sorry, going to stick with the penny thing for a moment, so not thinking about percentages probably.

So if i risk a penny a pip - and I do get a drawdown of 900 pips, well that is 900 pennies and $9.00 us dollars - - I CAN handle that. no biggie.

in fact, just throwing this out there – on a $1,000 account, I could open a trade in 20 different forex pairs and have a drawdown of 900 pips on each one for a total of $180 drawdown - well that is 18% drawdown - really don’t like that, but, but , butt, will that REALLY happen. probably not.

so can I wait on each pair to get to profit, then close.

How am I doing MasterTang?

like I said just going outside my box - I am always focused on ‘high %’ and ‘quickly’ so maybe that has been my downfall so far?

15

Yes master OB1 (cant spell it sorry) Master Tang question do you have a salt water reef tank. Just trying to figure out where the tang came from. Sorry to go off topic (thats another hobby of mine lol).

16

so, one more thought before I retire for the evening.

ok 2 more.

  1. dammit I said I wanted to quit thinking - -but so far so good. I just pray your leading me somewhere good.

  2. I remember o’geez do I dare say it - a system where (I am going on your percentage statement now) where you open trades , geez I can’t remember, but the gist was you have many open trades and the sum of those is either a certain % loss or gain and you close out.

goodnite - thanks both of you for your input(s)

17

LOL! Nice knowledge of aquatic fauna there!

Master Tang was the aging kung fu master that routinely got his a$$ kicked in the infamous movie “Kung Pow”.

It’s pretty damn funny if you like sophomoric, and rather absurd humor.

I was getting my butt handed to me regularly in this gig, and that guy came to mind.

As for tangs… If properly prepared, they are DELICIOUS!!! Cleaning them can be a bit of a biatch though.

I have a pretty nasty scar on one of my fingers from those spinal spears at the base of the tails.

Those things will get you!

:smiley:

18

Haha nice didnt think of that man. Cool just always wandered

19

Getting warm;)

But you really only need ONE pair.

This statement will make you more money than you will ever know.

20

ah shict - I was thinking of the great american sugared fruit drink, that I hate . .Tang. . . but again shows my worldy knowledge.