I am highly intelligent the us stocks will plummet and eur usd will go into green on big up
as will the aud usd which alredy did today so i’m sorry but your not smarter than me
you watch 40 minutes from now the us stocks will open and plumet like a ***** the eur usd will rise following the aud usd
Fisherman, I think neither of us understands quite what you are trying to say…
Like Eddie, I have been reading your posts on this thread and I am not sure how to respond.
Apart from a Pound drop and a temporary FTSE100 boost,
I see no big effect of the BoE rate decision world-wide:
precious metals like Silver have barely made a move;
US Crude Oil has barely reacted;
Yen crosses (except the GBP/JPY) have also not
been touched by this event;
the S&P500 had a small move up but it was negligible.
All this means is that this is currently treated by the markets
as a localised central bank event, and this gives me confidence
that its impact on Pound and FTSE100 will also be limited in time,
given that its echo beyond the BoE event will be muffled.
Sentiment, however, has a much bigger chance of turning the
Pound’s fortunes, but for that we need much more than a single
event like the rate decision and press conference of today from the
Bank of England…
Equally, only true risk-off/risk-aversion across the globe will get
the FTSE100 to shift from its anaemic performance and finally
lose its grip on a congestion around the 6000 - 7000 zone: but, for
this, we need a true shift from ‘wait and see’ sentiment to a
‘sell and flee’ one, and it has to be global.
Like SuperMario hahaha
just another annoyance to market participants. a new try to influence the markets against its natural movements.
to be honest todays BoE actions have been recognized as emergency actibg trying to prevent a upcomming recession in UK and a try to hold the real estate market high. at least thats what sentimemt is saying over here.
it doesnt have much effect world wide mostly because people know that central banks cant make a unfunctioning evonomy function again. at least somethibh people learmed by now (no im not saying UK has a disfunctional economy. it was only an example not connected to the UK economy)
Good post…and welcome back! How is life? And the baby?
thank You Francis! life as usual. baby was quiet 2 months and now learned to use crying as influence on me lol
howd your daughter and how are you?
Haha yes, that sounds like a healthy baby with fully working lungs 
Mine is nearly three months and she is a very easy baby…
When she cries really loud I use heavy headphones to shut the noise
out, then I will go to her and pick her up, calmly working out why she is
crying. This saves me panicking and also getting a headache
However, it turns out that the crying is more predictable now…
Do you too use the headphone method haha
Today’s BoE move boils down to two words - The Daily Reckoning - UK Edition
The two words are: More Debt.
I mentioned back a couple of weeks that the BOE are between a rock and a hard place, the more recent PMI’s have underlined that.
They have reacted as most had predicted, it’s the template that seemed to help back in the crunch, there seems to be no other route.
The big problem is that the hard place is quite different, then it was lack of credit availability, now it will be lack of demand.
David Blanchflower, former MPC member, stated on Friday that these are ‘scary times’, that they are.
He advocates a 5% cut in vat, this is not for the BOE to act on, this requires action by a politician who is known for his caution (or is it dithering) and is just new to the job - such a cut would add to the debt number, many entrepreneurs have a saying - ‘in for a penny, in for a pound’ .
Scary times require daring action, the BOE are doing their best, now is the time for politicians to step up to the mark …
Sadly I have doubts, we have statements to the effect that we are ‘open for business’ or that we are actively seeking trade agreements with large economies, then, after setting up the fanfare, including hospitality tents, we send the Chinese investor representatives home at with the notion that we just don’t really trust them and have to have a little think about things.
Prof Blanchflower’s two words are echoing loud.
My goodness, if one were to unpack your words, Peterma, there would be entire threads
to write to even begin to do your post justice… speaking of packing a lot of info in a small space!
You put in your reply a lot of information that shows a deep understanding of these matters…
Thank you.
I am not in the same league so I am going to keep quiet…
We all have our opinions about central banks (not about governors/chairs themselves,
just of the institutions of central banking as money-printing centres, or so they seem
to have become through the decades)… and nobody doubts the difficult balancing act
that they have to do.
I agree with you 100% that fiscal, not monetary policy, should be the rule of the economic
land, whereas all the expectation that somehow a central bank can create jobs and
‘stimulate’ growth is highly misguided. As I said before, it is not Yellen who must create
jobs but Perez (Secretary of Labor); it is not Carney who must create jobs but Green
(Secretary of State for Work and Pensions); it is not Draghi who must create jobs but
Nahles (Germany), Touraine (France), Poletti (Italy), and so on; it is not Kuroda who
must create jobs but Shiozaki…
Yet all we focus on is Yellen, Draghi, Carney, and Kuroda.
Wrong
Wrong
Wrong
that is my opinion… this is the world we live in.
PMH, it’s not my deep understanding, it’s just my years.
You mentioned elsewhere about reconciling your monthly bills, this is exactly what motivates my thinking.
I’m past those particular worries, yet my children and grandchildren and thousands of ordinary, hard working people throughout the world have that very same concern.
Their hard working is often not enough, they rely on their elected politicians to help create and maintain the infrastructure that helps them provide for their families.
Most modern countries have created the independent central bank, these guys are professionals, they do their best, ego plays a minimal role, but can we really say the same of the politicians.
I am an entrepreneur, so I always look for the positive, yet I rely on these same politicians to help me create the wealth, not for myself, but for others who will in turn distribute - and so monthly bills get paid.
Many thks for your posts
I doff my cap to you, Peterma, for ever an asset to these forums!
You always look for the positive even in seemingly negative economic times,
and, as you say, it is part of your mind-set to do so.
We need more people like you who write with such a human touch and
a sharp financial/economic mind, all in one…
As for the central banks… Reading Murray Rothbard’s 'What has the government
done to our money?’ (What Has Government Done to Our Money? | Mises Institute)
says all that I need to know to see the fundamental flaw behind the removal of the
free-market pricing of money and of the gold/silver standard; I also see many more
problems with central banking and with the idea that a few smart people in a room
with a printing press can somehow ‘stimulate’ the economy woes out of a depressed
system. Of course, politicians can make as many mistakes as central bankers, but
at least… we can vote them out at the next election.
Peace and Prosperity, Peterma.
I am away to bed.
Let the trading week commence.
This is what I was referring to, released yesterday - the inevitable reaction from China, their ambassador is conveying his government’s response.
Now the UK Govt is in a difficult position, if they allow Hinkley they are seen to be acting under duress.
The dilemma, which even I as a mere keyboard warrior could foresee, could have been so easily avoided.
When suggestions were made public that the UK had stalled the signing of the agreement based on security issues - that was the time to issue a statement to the effect that it was solely economics that had caused the re-think, a perfect face saver for all concerned.
Ah well, what is done is done, what is won is won, and what is lost is lost and gone forever…
China warns of ‘crucial juncture’ over Hinkley delay - BBC News
So, peeps!
Another extraordinary period in the life of the markets…
This month the UK 10-year Gilts have hit prices we did not
see since late 2011, which, inversely put, means that they
are at record lows (this time, unlike 2011, they are actually
at negative yield)…
What the above chart, which I prepared on Investing.com using
an overlay of the 10-Year Gilt monthly chart (candlesticks) and of
the FTSE100 monthly chart (red line) since 2011, shows is that
the major difference in the two 10-Year Gilt highs is that the first
time it was mirrored by a FTSE100 fall from just over 6050 to just over
5100, in other words the falling Gilt yields were accompanied by a falling
FTSE100; this time round, however, the high Gilt prices are accompanied
by a rallying FTSE100, at a time when confidence in the UK financial markets is clearly at
an all-time low.
I hear you say: “Ah, but it is because of the low Pound”; or: "Ah, but it is because of the
fresh BoE stimulus". All this may be true, but it does not bode well that the previously
held dynamic of rising UK equities and rising 10-Year Gilt yields has been distorted to the
point that the two are now inverse…We should be seeing 10-Year Gilt prices falling (and their
yield rising) in a flight to safety, while the FTSE100 should be falling.
I hear you say also: "It is not the FTSE100 that reflects current Brexit blues, but rather the
FTSE250"; true, the FTSE250 has been struggling as it is more based on UK companies, while
the FTSE100 has a lot of companies based outwith the UK… However, as I posted in another
Forextown thread, the inverse relationship between Pound and FTSE100 has not been always
thus; in the last ten years, we had entire periods where both Pound and FTSE100 were rising
and falling in tandem, perfectly matching in sentiment, and at times this has indeed diverged.
We are at one such juncture, where a low Pound is proving beneficial for the FTSE100; however,
this is not set in stone, and it will inevitably change once again to a parallel, positive correlation.
Until then, we have a distortion in the relationship of the Gilts and the FTSE100, which signals to
me, along with a very low FTSE100 Vix (volatility index), that there must be some kind of response
from some unknown corner of the system that will pull the plug on capital and reallocate it out
of equities, or, that historic positioning in equities will just come to an end.
While August has been the ‘month of crashes’ in recent history, I would not be so certain, but it is
a possibility, however improbable it may seem, that equities at these highs, providing such thin returns,
are certainly stretched - and analysts have been signalling this since 2015, so it is nothing new.
When or how ‘the Big Short’ will actually materialise, it is what nobody knows.
august is always a great month for down movements. but it seems this time the movement ist postponed to september. in my opinion we are still years apart from a crash. the next crash (my opinion) will be the “lost trust in central banks-crash” but that one will be a hard one we wont recover that fast from.
aswell the “application bubble” and “social media bubble” is developing bigger sizes than the dot-com bubble did in 2001.
just a idea giver: do you really see sense in paying 28 billion for an app thats easily copied and the owning company never made any sales (take aside profits -lol) like snapchatt- or 14 billion wharsapp or (lol) 58 billion for uber- a company never seen a profit with a business model that reminds people of gipsy caravans and a yearly sales less then a 100million dollars?
the entire dot-com bubble was less in value then uber whatsapp and snapchat (only 3 of a hundret overblown bubble companies) combined together.
interesting times ahead indeed. the “castle in the air”-theory at its finest. i know very well what companies im shorting once a crash shows its signs.
Nice post, Turbo bringing this topic of tech bubbles to our attention… Thanks…
This article came up today:
Indeed, if a lot of fund managers are keeping their cash away from peril this month, what will happen in September? Maybe a Fed hike may stir things up a little?
to be honest a fed hike would do the opposite now. it would trigger a rally. the deciders are expecting a hike its already planned in the prices. if the fed restrains from a hike, or even worse lowers interest rates, it will create nervocity in the market that something is fishy.
we love to forget thar this is all true economics and not only daytrading or swinging.
the economy must start to stand again on its own two feet without $ucking the milk and honey on the b00bs of the FED or the government. after 8 years now its more than time to do so and if it doesnt start showing signs (especialky in europe [note im not saying EU only, but all of europe]) we are facing problems which we would not like to face at all.