Worker Bee's Journal - 5m Index Opening Strategy

Hello guys, i’d like to keep a little journal here too.

My strategy tries to profit from the money which comes into the market during the opening minutes of an index. I trade the opening of DAX and US30. I didn’t test other indices.

I am looking for an entry by bar-by-bar analysis after the first 5m bar closed. I watch the 5m and 1m chart simultaneously. Often times i just end up trading the 5m range breakout. I allow me just one trade per open.

Despite my trade management rules i am always looking to exit DAX trades manually after 7am New York time. I am definitely out of the market when there are US premarket news. I am looking to exit US30 trades manually after 2pm New York time because i’d like to enjoy the evening with my family (8pm my time). I never hold over night.

I forward tested my strategy since June till end of August with different management methods. Below are the results.

Grey is what i really did with slippage and so on. The other colors are the management methods i wanted to compare with each other. I think the names are self explanatory? AON means “all or nothing” which means if my TP isn’t hit i get stopped out.

As you can see i measure my performance with R - the monetary risk per trade.

During my testing i changed from yellow to orange because of the higher profitability and because with this management i am able to turn the computer off as soon as i am in a trade. During my test phase i also increased risk from 5€ to 10€

I already went live in September with 10€ risk but after a promising 5R start in my first week i experienced a 8R drawdown which led me to change my approach :skull_and_crossbones:

I backtested September and October an saw my strategy didnt failed, i did. Although September would have been the least profitable month so far.

Now i went live again with a smaller risk of 1€. Below are the results of the last two weeks.

As for now i am happy with my performance and i am thinking about increasing my risk to 5€ if i can end November with at least a 5R profit.

I will update my journal next weekend. Wish me luck.

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Wanted to share my frustration today :sleepy:

With those two trades i am in a 4 trade losing streak this week. It is very hard for me to still belive in my strategy right now. This feeling caused the changes i made to it in september.

My wife and accountability partner tries to cheer me up and rememberes me to look at the demo statistics and the performance of the last two weeks.

Well i even can get stopped out two more times and would still be in the green. But in my mind i already fucked up #emotionaltrader

I had an awful week. My losing streak extended to 6R eventually. But I had a winning trade at the end of the week and could minimize losses to around -4R. Didnt trade Friday because of NFP and a doctors appointment of my daughter.

I am still up 2,46 R. Yellow management is only better because there is no spread or slippage. Increasing risk was off the table.

This has happened before during testing and in September when i went live the first time. Last time i tried to change my approach but this time i will just keep on trading like i am used to.

Thing is, when i get a good push in one direction the first 5 minutes after open, followed by a little pullback or a narrow range consolidation on the 1m chart and price breaks above or below that, i am in a trade, period.

If price decides to push up, pulls back, pushes again. makes a new high and then drops all day i’m gonna get trapped in my trade. I know that. My strategy relies on the premise that my approach works in more than 33 % of the times. This week it didnt work like that. Especially on Monday lol. And i also had a little bit of bad luck on Tuesday.

US30 is up 4,73R btw. I lost more on DAX.

Lets see what December has in store for me. See you next week.

Its been a while since my last post. I am still at it, but my drawdown increased to -12,49R. Wow!

I took a few days off and analysed what could be the problem. I came to the conclusion that there is none. Why do you think?

Well if I only look at US30, i am exactly where i want to be:

7,58 R in one month. Thats great. I want to risk 1% per trade after becoming profitable. That would mean 7,58%. And that is exactly what i expected based on my past demo tests.

My strategy works, but at the moment DAX just doesnt want to play along.

Wow, look at this losing streak! It is not what i expected. But if US30 is performing like during testing i think DAX will too. But i have to give it some time. It may be just a very bad phase. I made a few mistakes too during this losing streak, which costed me the few DAX winning trades i could have had.

Overall this is the current result:

What do you think of my situation. Would you give DAX some time too or would you change something?

Yesterday i looked at every trade i took. First all DAX trades. Then all US30 trades. I made 7 mistakes, 5 of them caused a stop out instead of a win. All 5 of those trades were on the DAX. I made not a single mistake on US30.

One mistake you already saw above in my spreadsheet journal. On 22 November i placed a stop loss which violated my rules.

On another trade i completely overlooked that we were right under 14000. I traded a breakout without knowing the importance of the resistance. I would have waited and traded the rejection of this level.

The other mistakes are all of the same nature. I know that DAX responds well to pivot points. So i have a special DAX rule that my entry has to have room of at least 1R to the next pivot point. I violated this rule 5 times. 3 of those times there was a reversal at the pivot point which i could have traded if i just followed my rules.

I find it interesting that all of those mistakes are on DAX which opens 9 am for me. Maybe i am a bit stressed in the morning, leading me to overlook important levels or setting my stop loss too tight. Maybe i didn’t respect my additional DAX rule regarding pivot points because there is no such rule on US30. I dont know.

But i did great today and waited for the reaction at the pivot point. First DAX win since 15 trades.

So i would correct my conclusion from my last post and say that there surely was a problem. DAX still isnt playing along but i threw away 5 winning trades with those mistakes. 5 wins instead of 5 stop outs equals 15 R in profit! This 15 R are missing. If i had those i would be highly profitable like in demo trading.

So i will continue and work on this next year! Merry Christmas and a happy new year.