Worker Bee's Journal

Worker_Bee · February 13, 2024, 7:08am

I won’t trade today. Because of carnival festivities my work told everyone we can leave at 12. Of course, as someone from cologne, germany I can only raise my eyebrows on what people here in bavaria call carnival or “fasching” as they call it. But we want to spend the day as a family and this is why I don’t even start to trade today.

If I would, I would look for shorts around yesterdays high which is very close to yesterdays close, so a double resistance and two reasons to short. on the long side I would trade from around 16960.

Worker_Bee · February 15, 2024, 7:03am

Good morning. Missed last two trading days which formed a nice V in the DAX. I think I would have traded at least breakeven. But you can never be sure in hindsight.

I will update this post if I made up my mind about the priceaction today.

Edit 1: OK, on the long side I want to buy into this uptrend around yesterdays close @16945. And on the short side there is a lot of resitance between 17033 - 17063. But after this V which formed I am a little cautious and want to watch first. But I most certainly will sell @17063 to speculate on at least a minor reaction to the all time high.

Edit 2: I am short since 17035. Doesn’t look like it would work. I will probably try it again @ 17063

Edit 3: Stopped out for -30. Short again since 17066.

Edit 4: No reaction whatsoever, just a straight line up up up. I will stop if I get stopped out again.

Edit 5: Like those bear bars. I hope it is a reversal. Not just a retracement.

Edit 6: Stop to BE.

Edit 7: Stopped for 0 on the second trade. I will short again at the top for a double top.

Edit 8: Looks like a very unfortunate breakeven stop on the second trade as DAX breaks lower. ■■■■!

Edit 9: Thought about buying under 17043 but missed my chance…I hesitated because TH school run would have given a sell signal.

Edit 10: If it breaks lower again I want to buy around 17033.

Edit 11: Ok. Bought @17040. Last trade for today.

Edit 12: SL to 17030 for -10

Edit 13: SL to BE @ 13 points in profit.

Edit 14: I am about to get stopped out for 0 again. Max profit was 26 points. This means I will end my day with -30 points and +160 points for the month.

Edit 15: Still in it.

Edit 16: Stopped out breakeven. Max profit was 30 points.

Edit 17: Long since 17027

Edit 18 Stop to BE after a 5m bullish engulfing

Edit 19: Stopped out for 0 again. Max profit was 16 points. Not my day. Three breakeven trades in a row. See you tomorrow.

Worker_Bee · February 16, 2024, 6:54am

Very narrow overnight price action. Gap up to a new ATH. We are in a strong uptrend. Price broke the range of the start of the year. Of course it could be a fakeout and a big reversal is coming, but daily XETRA volume doesn’t show any sign of that.

Gameplan for today: Buy a retracement. I could imagine buying support @17070 or yesterdays close @17046.

Edit 1: Given how DAX rallied at 8 I would already buy a retracement @17090 around yesterdays high.

Edit 2: DAX is ranging…a lot of patience is required.

Edit 3: As DAX is breaking higher now, I would buy a retracement at the low of the range around 17115.

Edit 4: I will step aside without a trade now. I will watch DAX and if I see a retracement I will consider buying it. But since I stopped trading breakouts, I have a hard time trading DAX when it just ranges, moves higher, ranges again and moves even higher.

Still +160 points this month. +222 points for the year, thats 22.2 %.

Edit 5: I will switch my pc off now. Monday is Washingtons Birthday. I don’t trade US holidays. See you on tuesday.

Worker_Bee · February 19, 2024, 8:06am

Couldn’t leave it alone. Opportunity was good.

Edit 1: Raised stop to +10 points

Edit 2: Stopped out for +10 (max profit was 27 points). +170 for the month. +232 for the year.

Edit 3: I would be stopped out for 0 by now.

Worker_Bee · February 20, 2024, 8:22am

One could buy DAX here, but because of the strength of the fall, I pass. I will consider buying at 17000 again. I deleted an order around 17023.

Edit 1: Nice bounce trade would already be at BE

Edit 2: I am a little disappointed and thinking about buying at 23 when it comes down again.

Edit 3: ■■■■ I think I missed my chance today. Would already be 30 points in profit. Had to much fear today and deleted a nearly perfect buy order.

Edit 4: It turnes…lets see if I can get an entry.

Edit 5: I will speculate on a double bottom.

Edit 6: I don’t think I will take a trade today. Missed the best opportunity today because of fear. Sad.

Worker_Bee · February 22, 2024, 7:29am

Good Morning. Didn’t trade yesterday. Today there is a BIG gap up. Mhm…I want to buy a retracement. But I am not sure where. Yesterdays close is far far away. I probably won’t short DAX.

There is a high chance that I won’t take a trade at all today.

Edit 1: Let this breakout traders have fun. I will sit back and be happy with my 170 points this month.

Edit 2: Ok I have placed a limit buy order at 17195. It is the low of the overnight range and the high from february 16th. 30 points SL as usual.

Edit 3: It is just rallying in premarket. +143 points for DAX today already. If we get a green open I can instantly delete my limit order, lol.

Edit 4: OK guys. I delete my buy order. IF Dax hammers down to my limit order I won’t be confident enough for it to rise again. I am honest, I would still take this trade if I hadn’t +170 points this month already. But right now, it is just not worth the risk for me, do you understand?

Edit 5: I mean if you scroll up, you can see several examples how I hesitate to take a trade since my good run at the beginning of the month. Maybe I have to work on this. Let me know if you have an opinion on this.

Edit 6: Jesus…so much edits and DAX hasn’t even open yet

Edit 7: I don’t trade fibonaccis and I didn’t have any reason to buy DAX at 17280, but look where the retracement went:

Edit 8: Also it peekabooed down the low of the (XETRA) day and rallied since. Bet many 5m opening range breakout traders got stopped out there.

Worker_Bee · February 23, 2024, 8:34am

Look at this entry. Stop already at BE. Max profit 17 points.

Edit 1: Max profit 23 points.

Edit 2: Stopped out BE. Max profit was 23 points. Very Sad. Wanted to TP around 30 points.

Edii 3: I thought about reenter my trade. But I didn’t.

Edit 4:
I did now.

Edit 5: Stop to -10 points.

Edit 6: Stop to BE.

Edit 7: TP at the wicks of the previous candles for +25 points.

Edit 8: If I get stopped out for 0 again I will stop for today.

Edit 9: Still in it. The last low didn’t take me out.

Edit 10: SL to +10 points

Edit 11: As you can see I raised my TP to 40 points. I like this last 5m candle and think it could retest the high of the first 5m candle.

Edit 12: I took 15 points of profit. +185 for the month. +247 points for the year. Thats 24,7 %. Have a nice weekend.

Worker_Bee · February 26, 2024, 7:38am

Good morning. Although I’d rather go long around 17360, I probably will try a short today if DAX tests the ATH. It smells like range week.

Currently no open orders.

Edit 1: I am eyeing 17426 - 430 as a short entry.

Edit 2: One could short the DAX here at 17419 because it is Fridays close.

Edit 3: And this would have given you the opportunity to tighten your SL or even set it to BE because price dropped instantly for 9 points after touching Fridays close. It is already at BE now, so…I didn’t take it, no harm done.

Edit 4: This turned out to be a very nice entry, as DAX dropped for 14 points from 17419. As I said, I didn’t take it. My SL would definitely be at BE now.

Edit 5: Would be at +20 points now. Seems like I have to trade a little more aggressive. Missed quite a few trades in the last two weeks.

Edit 6: I will enter at 17420 for a double top + against fridays close.

Edit 7: I am short now since 17419.

Edit 8: I had an important phone call, so I couldn’t write. I did set my SL to 15 points after price retraced to 17410 and got stopped out for -15. I have a new sell order at 17440 for the top of the range.

Edit 9: Looks like I can’t capitalize on my ideas today. I missed this short by 3 points.

Edit 10: I would have been better off by just sticking to my original idea of shorting between 17426 - 430. -15 today. +170 for the month.

Edit 11: Just went short at 17422.

Edit 12: Stop to -15. Basically if it breaks the double top which formed, then I am out.

Edit 13: Stop to BE. I want it to test the low of the day for a 50 point profit.

Edit 14: Thats it. I’m out for BE. See you tomorrow.

Edit 15: I can’t leave it guys. I went short again at 17430.

Edit 16: After I nearly got stopped out, I have the opportunity to go out BE now, but I don’t do it. I think DAX is ranging on the higher timeframe. Therefore I hold on to my trade.

Edit 17: Got stopped out for -30 and went short again at 17458. Stop is already at BE. I say bye already. Because this is my last trade today. Regardless of the outcome.

I did not so good today. I think it was impatience. If I just waited for my preset entries I would have done better today.

Edit 18:

Normaly I would be bragging about my entry, but today…you know how much I had to fish for this. I really hope this is the beginning of a test of the lows of the forming range on the higher timeframes. Right now it is still an intact uptrend.

Edit 19: It broke the trendline, wish me luck!

Edit 20: SL to +15 points

Edit 21: SL to +30 points, that was quick

Edit 22: Break down you sucker!

Edit 23: I’ve been stopped out for +30 points. I am happy that I could reduce my loss to only -15 points. +170 for the month. +232 for the year.

Worker_Bee · February 27, 2024, 7:05am

Good morning. God I wish I would have held my trade overnight. It would have hit TP for +75 around 4am.

Well, I was right that we are in a big range. Yesterday I couldn’t capitalize on that and lost 15 points.

Today I will be more patient.

Edit 1: Normaly I would have shorted at yesterdays close 17423, but it is the middle of the range. Not a good entry point.

Edit 2: I want to sell DAX over 440.

Edit 3: I want to sell at 17449

Edit 4: Looks like I missed the short by 4 points. ■■■■. SL would already be at BE. I will hold on to my order at 449 because this would have been good yesterday.

Edit 5: IF I would have sold DAX earlier, I would be out for 0 now.

Edit 6: My order was triggered.

Edit 7: We are at the very top of the range. I didn’t enter here but sooner, because in a range you never know. We have muliple tops to enter…

Edit 8: DAX doesn’t respect the range it breaks higher…

Edit 9: Looks like I get stopped out.

Edit 10: Nice turnaround with those wicks. Now I hope it falls back into the range and to its low.

Edit 11: It breaks higher again. I think its over.

Edit 12: It formes a narrow range at the top of the big range…come on fall back down.

Edit 13: Very nice 5m and 15m bars:

Edit 14: Stop to -20 points, just over those wicks.

Edit 15: It ranges at breakeven. If I get stopped out today, then I will note that I should rather go for the very top of a range and not try to catch price sooner.

Edit 16: IF I sold at the very top of the range, I would be out for BE now.

Edit 17: I am stopped out for -20.

Edit 18: Just went short at 17500.

Edit 19: Wow DAX is strong today. No big retracements since 17389.

Edit 20: Still ranging around breakeven.

Edit 21: Ok now it goes. I am fully aware, that this may only be a retracement and another rally may come, but I won’t set my stop to BE yet. Max profit until now: 18 points.

Edit 22: DAX broke out of the range today. It could be a fakeout. There was increasing volume on the XETRA daily chart. IF it is a fakeout, my entry around 17500 would be very good. If not, then this is gonna be a very bad day for me.

Edit 23: IF I would have set my SL to BE, then I would be out for 0 now.

Edit 24: Still in it…not happy about it.

Edit 25: What a shitty day. Got stopped out for -50. -70 points in total. +100 for the month.

Worker_Bee · February 29, 2024, 7:16am

Good morning. Didn’t trade yesterday, as I don’t trade wednesdays due to other obligations.

I gave away lot of profits in this month. I was up +190 points on one day and gave 90 points away. I thought about it and concluded that it was bad discipline on tuesday. thats the only real mistake I made. The other losses were somewhat avoidable, but they were still ok. But shorting DAX again and again in this heavy uptrend on tuesday was not good trading. I should have accepted the -20 point loss. The -50 point loss was unneccessary.

Ok, what about today? DAX still makes new ATH’s. I wont short it. I will only go long on a retracement. If we get lucky there will be a day like yesterday. A narrow range, where I could have bought around the lows and made money every time.

And this is what I have to accept. My new trading style is one that profits on slow days where price attempts to move, but doesn’t. If I see that it could be a trend day, I should stop right away.

Edit 1: In the past I made great money on trend days, but couldn’t keep those because of long periods of little to no movement in the DAX. Now I switched and I am able to make money on slow days, but I have to take care not to lose so much on trend days, while fighting the trend.

Edit 2: I have 2 entry points today. Yesterdays close at 17601 and the low of yesterdays range at 17560.

Edit 3: Until now DAX ranges right at the new ATH. Although it is tempting to sell at 17640, I won’t. I will wait for my preset entry points or a freshly formed lower range.

Edit 4: Yeah DAX ist just rallying. I will still have one eye at the market for a possible buy-in into a retracement, but I will cancel my open orders now and say goodbye to you.

I end my february not as good as one could have thought couple of days ago. I “only” have made +100 points, +162 points this year, thats 16,2 %.

Edit 5: I have a buy order at 17640.

Edit 6: I delete my order and end my day. DAX only fell to 17660 and is now rallying again.

Worker_Bee · March 1, 2024, 7:04am

Good Morning, DAX is just rallying again. Yesterdays close is already over 100 points away. Probably no trade today.

Edit 1: I have an open buy order at 17742. And I am thinking about buying under todays narrow range around the open.

Edit 2: Made both trades. Lost -30, won +30. I tried to get more on the second, but raised my stop to +30 when the trade was at a +45 points profit. I then got stopped out.

Worker_Bee · March 4, 2024, 8:18am

Long since 17723. Stop already at BE, max profit 13 points.

Edit 1: Stopped for 0, still open buy order at 17695.

Edit 2: Long again at 17722.

Edit 3: Stop to BE again (10 points profit).

Edit 4: Price bounced off of yesterdays close again (13 points max profit).

I hope it breaks above.

Edit 5: OK. It broke fridays close. I think we are in an uptrend now. TP is around 17800, but I will raise my stop or exit manually if I think I have to. I delete my open buy order.

Edit 6: SL to +13 points at fridays close.

Edit 7: I am +30 points right now.

Edit 8: SL to +22 points. Max profit 34 points.

Edit 9: Stopped out for +22. I end my day. +41 this month, as I made a +38 point US30 trade at friday with a 50% position. +203 points for the year, thats 20,3 %.

Worker_Bee · March 5, 2024, 6:39am

Good morning boys and girls.

DAX is gapping down. I am eyeing 17600 as a possible long entry, 17560 is good, too. On the short side I would sell a gap close at 17716, but this probably won’t happen within my trading time. I am thinking about 17680, too.

Edit 1: I would have bought 17640 but we are already there and it isn’t even 8am yet. I don’t trade before 8am. And in the last hour before XETRA opens 8-9am, I only trade really convincing setups. This isn’t one.

I see it coming, I probably won’t take a trade today

Edit 2:

I would have bought 17640 but we are already there and it isn’t even 8am yet

IF I would have taken it, I’d have a running breakeven trade right now. Well, you can’t take them all…

As you can see, I placed already my buy order around 17600.

Edit 3: I placed a buy order at 17633, right under the recent low.

Edit 4: Order is still active.

Edit 5: Placed an additional sell order around 17700.

Edit 6: I don’t think that something is happening today. I missed selling at 17680 because I was distracted and didn’t place a limit order. I say goodbye to you. I don’t trade wednesday. See you thursday.

Edit 7: DAX may trigger my order at 17700 any moment.

Edit 8: I missed my chance to set my SL to BE and I am now trapped in an uptrend. There is resistance ahead, I hope it turnes again.

Edit 9: Looks good. I won’t reduce my SL yet because there could be a double top. I don’t like to lose money because of a double top.

Edit 10: SL over the recent high. Double top came. If it break higher I don’t want to be in trade anymore.

Edit 11: Looks like 17700 is support now.

Edit 12: I was stopped long ago for -20. I was away and couldn’t journal. +21 for the month.

Worker_Bee · March 6, 2024, 8:12am

Good Morning,

had time to place a trade. I am long since 16697 around yesterdays close. SL is on BE. Max profit +11 points.

Edit 1: Stopped for 0. Max profit was +13 points.

Edit 2: I am currently in a long trade. SL is already at breakeven. It is basically a long at yesterdays close around 17698 and a trendline.

As you can see it went against me pretty much before going in my direction.

Edit 3: Aaaaand I’m out for 0. That sucks. Max profit 29. I really thought it would at least test the high.

Edit 4: It stopped me out and now it rises again. Just like this morning.

Edit 5: I could get +20 points, from 17698 to 17718 before XETRA close. So I am back at +41 points for the month.

Worker_Bee · March 7, 2024, 7:07am

Good Morning,

I could have bought DAX in premarket right under the overnight low, but I passed. Probably going to regret this again. I want to buy under 17640 and sell yesterdays close around 17716.

Edit 1: My buy order was triggered at 17630

Edit 2: Very volatile. I didn’t set my SL to BE yet although I was upo +16 at one point.

Edit 3: If it retests my entry and then goes up again, I will set the SL to BE.

Edit 4: SL to BE at 20 points

Edit 5: I took those 20 points…

+61 for the month. +223 for the year, thats 22,3 %

Edit 6: I won’t trade tomorrow, see you next monday.

Edit 7: Feeling a little stupid, because I closed my trade for +20 and it would now be at +200. But I tried to let my profits run all week, you know that I got stopped out for BE a lot. Taking profit was a good decision based on the behaviour of DAX in this week.

Worker_Bee · March 8, 2024, 9:53am

Had time to place a trade:

I wasn’t stopped out of this trade by 0,31 points! Sometimes you have luck sometimes you don’t.

I just raised my SL to -15 points.

Edit: Was stopped out for BE a while ago…max profit was +16 points.

Johnny1974 · March 9, 2024, 2:41am

Yeah - I know the feeling too well but you got 20 points - good days work.
Talking Dax behaviour - Nasdaq has been strange, I’m sure it’s algos. If you happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time you can get whipsawed for more than 20pts on a one minute candle and get stopped out if you’ve got a tight SL. This presents a SL conundrum for scalpers, you never know how big the spike can be. And I have noticed, of late, that a nice big candle on the one minute is immediately taken out by next candle. Am I being paranoid? I’ve been trading 15yrs, I’m sure it wasn’t always like this, I sometimes worry I’m going senile. Traders on higher timeframes probably wouldn’t notice this - hope it’s algos and not me.

Worker_Bee · March 9, 2024, 8:16am

As I am only in the game since 2021 I can’t tell you for sure, but I made the observation too, that right now there is a high chance of moves, which start very promising, going no where in the end. This is why I changed my trading style, too. I thought, that this is normal market behavior, after the volatility from the covid pandemic and the war cooled of.

Thanks. That does mean a lot to me. I am at a stage in my trading, where I desperately need such inputs from others…I don’t know why this is…

Maybe I am not 100% suited to trade on my own and I need a boss who pats on my back from time to time

Worker_Bee · March 9, 2024, 11:09am

I thought about risk levels and lot sizes recently.

Tom Hougaard starts every year with 100.000 pounds. He trades 200 pounds per point in the DAX, that means that 10 points equal 2% of his account. Currently I take half of his risk level. 1% per 10 points. It still feels a little high. And because I am limited with my leverage, a bigger draw down has the potential of forcing me to lower my position size.

If I increase my account size, I will reduce my relative risk level to 0,75 % per 10 points. Which means I would only be up 16,73 % for the year right now. If I extrapolate my current return, I maybe could achieve 1153 DAX points in this year. That would mean 86,48 % ROI with a risk of 0,75 % per 10 points. TH would make 230,6 % with the same return in points.

Would 86,48 % be still enough ROI to make the high risk of daytrading worth it? What do you think?

Johnny1974 · March 9, 2024, 7:46pm

I think 86.48% would be ok, you can’t really judge yourself against TH, having said that, the way TH is going at the moment you might even beat him!
Is trading worth it? Only you can say whether you love it or loathe it.
I think that you are doing very well.
Talking of points (1153 Dax in a year), I remember Al Brooks once proffering the idea of increasing size and reducing take profit to only 1pt per day eg. 50 weeks averaging 1pt/day = 250pts/year @£100pt = £25K - @£200pt (TH territory) = £50K
Now, 1pt/day I’m sure you would agree is very achievable. Getting your stake up to £200? - compounding
Just playing around with figures can make things look easier.