I do agree that this is his forte.
You can’t knock his overall profit - even with a bad month.
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Ok guys, I would have made 160 points more if I would have let my yesterdays short trade run. I am still proud of that trade. This chart tells you why.
I am analyzing Tom Hougaard quite a while now and I talked about his winning mindset. He as the “testicular fortitute” how he calls it to buy or sell agressively at support or resistance. My idea wasn’t bad. My first short was wrong but thats part of the game. I just have to pay attention that I don’t overtrade in such situations.
Today I marked the low of October the 4th as a long idea. I will buy there agressively. If we see confirmation, that will be already profit for me and I will raise my stop fast because it is a counter trend trade. This is why I won’t add to it. Although I want to add more. But this idea is more of a scalping idea. I don’t expect it to rally to the moon from there.
Question is: How are the odds that the market will completely ignore this low and slice right through it? IMO very low. I am betting on a reaction, maybe just a small one, that lets me profit. If I am wrong I will lose 30 points.
On the upside there are the lows from October the 13, 16 and 17 acting as resistance. I will sell there. This might be a trade where I will add, too.
But that means that we are just a little mind block away from his level. It is not a matter of knowledge, but a matter of the mind.
I already improved that much, that I made money yesterday. This is good. But adding at the beginning of the trade is something I have to improve further on. If I add, I add a half or a quarter position and moving my SL that I make money regardless. This is fear of losing the unrealized profits like Tom explained yesterday.
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I missed this trade by 2 points. It went 15100 and I waited for a little tick above 100. I missed it. Made 41 points regardless.
I didn’t add because I didn’t get the entry I wanted. I am happy to still made money on this idea.
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I am sitting at a weekly profit of 87 points and a 165 point profit for october. I am thinking about to pause tomorrow.
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Maybe we see a double top there in the DAX at my zone from 102 to 128. Although I am tempted I won’t take it.
Edit: Ok I made up my mind. I will trade it. Entry at yesterdays close (094) with a quarter position and a 30 point SL. I am sacrificing 7,5 points of todays profit.
Edit2: SL is already at BE. Lets see where is it going.
Edit3: Ok, stopped for 0. Not the reaction I was hoping for. Nevermind.
Edit4: Sadly it goes without me again 
, but I didn’t want to get the first red 5m bar that broke down get engulfed so I put the SL to BE. 
DAX
Breakeven today. I forced myself to trade today because I thought my wish to pause is grounded on some kind of fear to lose the weekly profits.
I want to share with you my statistics from October 5th until now. After backtesting vigorously for two weeks this was the day I started trading live again:
There is a difference to my statistics from before. My winrate dropped significantly (partly because of overtrading and accumulating of small losses during two days) but my average win per trade is three times higher than my average loss. But I am not targeting a 1:3 RRR at all. I am flexible with my TP, but try to catch a huge move if I think it is possible.
I raised my position size from 0.1 to 1 again at the start of last week. This is where I was before September happened.
Out of 12 trading days I only had 2 losing days. This is why the winrate of 37% doesn’t feels so bad. I am feeling like I have a winrate near 80 % or so.
I know I said that I won’t raise my position size so fast anymore, but I thought about it once again. I made 87 points with risking 1 € per point last week. If I can accumulate like 200 points I can double my position size and lose 100 points before it starts to be an annoying draw down.
I realize that I am possibly more aggressive than other traders. I am not nearly as aggressive as Tom Hougaard but I am willing to lose money betting on my myself. And I can afford it. This is a really big advantage.
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Missed the train today. No trades. Didn’t like the price action until the gap was closed. Then DAX just fell and didn’t retrace enough for me to enter. I will enter if price makes a retracement back to Fridays close.
Edit: FOMO really boils in me right now, but you have to admit when you are defeated. Today I hesitated and didn’t enter. I won’t trade anything today. Even with an retracement to Fridays close.
Edit2: Made 20 points on a half position shorting from 740. Lowered my stop as price was at the daily low again. Max unrealized profit were 40 points on a half position.
+10 full points today. Better than nothing.
Good recovery there to get some points on the board. Dificult some times to pull the trigger so dont be too harsh on yourself. I took the ASR long ang got stopped out. Flipped the switch and went short added after breaking below 14786. took profit early at 14770. then bought support at 14425 added and came out as a scalp at 14737. I dont have the financial pressure at the moment on trades as I have gone back to demo after blowing up on a prop challenge last week :frowning. I need to get back to basics and get some consistency before trying again.
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Yesterday I was a little distracted by my long bias. You maybe wondered where it came from.
Look at this daily Xetra (the official exchange) Chart of the DAX.
Because of the increasing volume and yesterdays turnaround, I have to say that my long bias for the next few days is still there. I just have to make sure that it doesn’t interfere with my short term trades 
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Ok, lost 30 points with longs and won 40 on the bullish turnaround +10 points today.
It’s a shame that I wasn’t able to capitalize on my long bias yesterday. First trade was within the first minute after open. I bought 800 with a half position. It went 30 points up (1:1 RR) but that wasn’t that kind of profit I wanted. Got stopped BE on that.
After I lost around 30 points on various attempts of buying support I hit a runner at 14775 with a half position and added two quarter positions at 803 and 816 to full size. I sold all at 831.
I am happy with my trading. I could make a profit. I don’t want to trade that long anyway. It already was noon. But I am a little disappointed that DAX didn’t rally from the open. My first entry was just perfect for that.
We already saw a retracement. Maybe it continues today. But I am willing to short again, too.
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Breakeven today.
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I should have stopped yesterday like I stated in the chart above, but I couldn’t leave DAX alone. So I lost 30 points yesterday. I was in a long +48 points at 14911 that retraced on me. And then a short +58 at 14790 that retraced on me, too. Yes, you saw this right, I traded the whole f***ing day.
The only positive thing I can see is that my approach got me into this trades and my management was good in the sense that, thats what I want to do if I am in a good trade: let it run. Of course it wasn’t good at all because yesterday was a gigantic whipsaw, 100 points up and then a 100 points down and then all over again. Didn’t saw it and couldn’t capitalize on that.
Ok, where are we today? DAX gapped down over a hundred points and below yesterdays green bar on the daily chart. I would say that this shocks the market and that today will be a huge down day. But of course, it would be even more surprising if we would see a gap fill and a rally beyond that. I am prepared for both scenarios. If we see a range day again, well then I will probably lose money again. I will try to minimize that and if I say I will stop today, then I really will, because yesterday was an unnecessary loss.
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stick with it Worker_Bee you are doing one of the most difficult things in trading in trying to let winners run. I am testing out watching a standard chart and one with Heiken Ashi bars side by side to see if will help me with this as its one of my biggest weakness ( grabbing at profit) along with revenge / over trading. Keep the faith
I am back again. I was on vacation in Salzburg at the end of october/ start of november and never reported back to you. sorry!
Well my October and November didn’t work so well. I have a huge problem of overtrading when things don’t work. I am good for 2-3 weeks, slowly grinding up and then I lose it all in a few trades.
Where am I now? I currently trade 3 strategies:
- Tom Hougaards School Run. But this time I won’t flip the switch, set my stop to breakeven after a meaningful profit and will close my trade manually around 6 or 8 pm CET. This means I will only make money with this on those trend days in the DAX, where it runs and never comes back. The advantage is that I will get every point of those good days and make 100-200 points on one trade. But of course this will have a low winning %.
The best thing about this is that I don’t have to think about what to do and can’t make a wrong decision that puts me in a negative mindset that leads to overtrading.
-
I tested AT’s EMA Channel Cross Strategy on EUR/USD with a 1:1 RRR and a 10 Pip SL and TP. It worked good and I will take this strategy into my roster. But I modified the entry rule for the EMA 14 so that I will only enter when it breaks under or over the channel. AT enters when it breaks into the channel. I will only take trades until noon my time, early London Session.
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Back to the Roots (BTTR): I got my ass kicked trying to trade like tom hougaard. When I take profits price runs further. If I let my trade run it retraces and stoppes me out. If I set my stop to breakeven it gets triggered. It was almost funny. Every decision I made was wrong. While tom hougaard seems to make the right decision every day. But while I was outplayed the past weeks I observed that - after a nice trend - price often returns to the range of the first 5m bar in an agressive and deep retracement and then resumes its trend. This is a setup I want to trade only on those days where we had a good push around the open. If price comes down I will catch the knife, speculating on a stop hunt.
Today I already made a EMA14 trade:
Sell EUR/USD @ 1,08677 08:09 am covered @ 1,08577 08:41 am for 10 pips profit.
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Buy DAX @ 16423,97 SL 16398,52
Buy EUR/USD @ 1,08726 10 pip SL/TP
Edit: Stop to BE in the DAX
Edit 2: Stopped for BE in the DAX. Max profit was 33 points. Stopped for -10 in the EUR/USD. This one stings. It stopped me on the penny and turned around.
Buy DAX @ 16400,27 SL 16380,27
Edit: Stop to BE because I didn’t like it anymore. I would have loved a greater response. And not a consolidation for over half an hour. Already stopped for zero while I am writing this.
Buy EUR/USD @ 1,08775 10 pips SL/TP
Edit: Stopped for -10