I’m not really trying to offend anyone but let’s just thinkg for a moment here.
I can give a perfect example of this. Take price action for eg. The long over extending price high or low called a pinochhio nose. Say if price rises or goes downwards a long distance but then closes much higher/lower which leaves a long trail known as a pinochio nose. This is a strong indication that price will go in the opposite direction. This is taught in price action. So if you see a pinocchio nose going downwards price is actually going upwards and vice versa.
Well is this really cast in stone? Is this a law? Just like the laws of science where e= mc square or the speed of light is fixed in stone and not 1 m/s faster or slower.
You see i guess i need to learn something. Everytime they teach something in the school of pips say this oscillator or that a trend and so on they will always put at the end. This trend/oscillator/graph does not actually predict it for you it’s just an indicator. In short if you want to rephrase it it’s just guessing it for you. In reality the price could go any damn way it wants to. Would you agree with me?
Therefore can we conclude that these indicators are just like making a science out of something that is totally unpredicable?
An indicator is what you make of it… Most are basically just a different representation/perspective of price… They don’t control price… Price is not governed by any natural law… This is not physics or math where you have black and white answers…
This is economics and mass psychology… Economic factors drive the general direction of price, mass psychology can be determined with TA and can be used to predict idiosyncrasies where money can be made…
I’m now making a small long trade on usdchf. The 3 red lines are the entry, tp and sl. The white line is the current price lvl. I have circled the long pinchhio nose. Now this trade is still ongoing so i don’t know the outcome but still i feel worried. It might actually go past my sl line and i end up with a loss thereby proving the pinnochio nose rule wrong in price action whereby a long donwards or upwards line with a close far away from it will show price moving in the opposite direction
I’ve heard it being said that few academically brilliant people succeed in trading because these people are so used to being right all their lives that they can’t stand being wrong very often. And in trading, all of us will have our fair share of losing streak. But the beauty of the game is that we don’t have to be right all the time, or even most of the time. We just have to be right more often than we are wrong. Even if you are wrong 100 times, you can still profit from the market if you are able to be correct 101 times, no more.
Trading is all about probability. Whatever that you are comfortable using, be it pure PA, S/R, Fibs, oscillators, stochastics etc will theoretically increase your probability of success if used appropriately, but it will never be with 100% certainty.
Remember also that at any point in time, there are 3 decisions we can make: 1. go long, 2. go short, 3. do nothing aka stay out of the market. As beginners, we need to learn to appreciate the value of doing nothing and only go for high probability setups.
In theory, we only need a 50.1% success rate to make money in the long run. Don’t bash yourself and get frustrated if you find yourself losing many times. If you keep on improving and stay in the game long enough, trading success will eventually come knocking.
Indicators are only as good as the person using them. If you stick them on the chart and dont understand how they are programmed and what they are telling you, then you are fighting a losing battle! As far as price action goes, you can have the best technical setup ever seen as still lose. Its a business of probabilities. You use all the pieces of information you can to predict the markets, only take trades which are high probability and that is all you can do!
Indicators Price action proprietary algos anything can have an edge in the market. Give an everyday joe an F-1 Car and give it to an experienced professional driver, going to be a big difference. one guy is going up in flames the other is going to be racing in Monte Carlo. Same with any set of indicators, price action, anything. Give an average guy bollinger bands, RSI, Stoch, Fibs, dojis, anything probably still going to make his account blow up. Give it to someone who is experienced and understands how to trade they probably can make money with it.
Based on my personal experience I agree 100% with MeiHua’s driver analogy.
To add to that, in Malcolm Gladwell’s book “Outliers” he writes about the “10,000-hour Rule”, he claims that greatness requires enormous time.
I’m sure there are exceptions, but I think you’ll find most successful FX traders have put in close to 10,000-hours sitting in the #2-seat before earning their captain’s bars.
So don’t be surprised if it takes you a few years to become a competent trader, learn to play a musical instrument, build a house or train to run a marathon.
I’m not losing at all. Truth be told my last 5 trades all made money. The market is now slowing down cos the NY market has closed while the sydney one is going to open in an hour’s time or is it open right now. The usdchf thing remains stuck there. This revelation just hit me and made me question it.
Well thats cool, Im around 7,600 live hours, and the rest were from watching stat tester in slow motion, just to watch the action… around 9,800 total hours, and that 16 hour days, with just xmas off… IN 2 YEARS, lol
I’m pretty sure a lot of office workers have spent 10k+ hours at their jobs… Yet are still considered mediocre at best… There has to be something besides time that factors into becoming truly “great” at something… Natural talent and passion are the two I’m thinking of.
Exactly correct Banker, Who the heck wants to work at a desk MAKING SOMEONE ELSE RICH, its no benifit to the desk person, except a resume booster for when that same company dumps your a$$ to the street, and your $30 thanksgiving turkey…
You can watch football every Sunday for the rest of your life, dont mean you can lead your team to the SuperBowl if you had the chance…
This is another reason that intelligence plays a major part to the business… How you ABSORB and Use the information your given, does it make a difference…
Few things are set in stone? For instance, light does not always travel at a constant speed… passing through liquid nitrogen it will slow to 30 mph. Bet you didn’t know that? LOL!!! But I take your point about indicators and or PA. If it helps you might try looking at open/ close & high/low, particularly on the daily. You might well find what your looking for? PA will always try to find the median… most noticable when ‘ranging’.
