Haha, this is exactly what I was afraid for. Yesterday night I realised what a stupid trade this was and I got caught up in my own confirmation bias. I took a trade off hours, before the non-farm payroll of today and best of all; I broke my rules. If you look at my entry point, if I had waited for the push through my automatic rally, I would have never taken this trade, right from my entry price pushed upwards. Yesterday night I saw 2 volume spikes which indicated that buyers were active, so I decided to take a -0,41% loss.
Pretty happy with the results, my goal is not to lose money so based on that; I did great.
However, I could have ended with a far greater profit if I did not make the following two mistakes:
Accidentally opening a position 10x the size I wanted. So I exited the trade immediately with a
0,22% loss
Taking a very bad trade by breaking my rules and exited the trade at a 0,41% loss (see the post above for analysis)
Price retraced into fib zone, 5 minute chart showed 6 times buying volume. Price got beautifully rejected. It looks like people are positioning long for the ECB speech of Lagarde. Initial target is at the 5-minute high, second target is at the 1H high, I can move targets according to how price reacts in those areas (high stopping volume for example)
Very weird, I am 100% sure I opened 2 positions, however, I just checked and I only have 1 running. Maybe price retraces and I can buy the 2nd position on the dip. Otherwise this will be a 0.5 risk trade.
Accidentally opened one position instead of 2. Therefore, I decided to push the targets a little bit and went for the 1H high. Price touched 5 min high and retraced. I just let the trade play itself out and eventually stopped me out. Which is fine, there is a lot of buying power so I just look for lower prices to retake the trade, because EU is still looking bullish.
Lessons learned
Always check if you executed the order properly, if I did open 2 positions, I would have hit TP1, put SL to BE and got a 0,50% win instead of a 0,53% loss. Apart from this mistake, I consider this as a good trade that hit TP1 just like a hot knife through a pack of butter.
As you can see, the price is in the fib zone and clearly shows a lot of demand on lower prices (at least 5 times). Price then continued to break the automatic rally on relatively low volume and is therefore considered as a valid long.
Very excited to see how this trade wil play out.
Another beautiful high probability set-up on the AUDJPY. Price is at previous support area, sustained buying power and a relative low volume breakthrough of the automatic rally. TP1 is on the 5 minute high and TP2 somewhere around the 1H high, depending on how price behaves around that area. I know I am doubling down on the weakness of the Japanese Yen, but this is not against my rules and therefore, this trade is valid.
Hmm I’d say that’s pretty risky taking a buy off that short especially as AUD/JPY has been up since 68.600 all the way to 76 without taking a breather. The natural course for any good pair is to make a correction which it looks like it’s in the middle in. If this meets your strategy as a good entry set-up by all means. But I expect this pair to still drop towards 74 region pretty soon in my opinion.
FYI : Especially since the weakness of yen was last week but it immediately started correcting against most pairs. I’d be very wary to stand in front of yen strength especially how these pairs appreciated last week I expect atleast 50% retracement on some of these pairs.
Appreciate the thought and explanation. I think our strategies are very different, I see you trade on the bigger timeframes, I am a more shorter term trader. I trade off activity and volume, AUDJPY is showing increased buying volume on lower prices, and lack of selling volume on higher prices, therefore, I think it will at least test the high again. Luckily, there are a million ways to make money in the market and let’s hope we are both right, price will fall down to 74 area after testing the high
Yes we are all in the game to get our pennies with different strategies for sure. Yes in the short term you maybe able to pick up some coins off this trade depending on where your BUY was placed. I do look at the 1HR, 4HR, D. The D is just screaming for the AUD to retrace further in my opinion (just pretty much anything vs yen right now is getting killed). Funny enough the COT report this week had institutional traders picking up extra longs on yen. Which has me vary weary of going against it at this moment.
What a trade, in the first two hours price skyrocketed towards TP1 but missed it by 1 pip (again), then I experienced a slow death where price floated in profit but was not doing anything for almost two days. Price showed a lot of weakness, finally price spiked up again in the afternoon, took 0.5 position off to let the other half just crash into my break-even.
Watching price behave is both fascinating and frustrating at the same time, especially when you miss your target by 1 pip.
This trade correlated a lot with the EJ trade. Same story: price rallied up, but unlike EJ did not really show a lot of high volume on higher prices, however, price started floating for almost two days. Took half the position off at the same time as EJ and due to the negative high impact USD news price pumped up towards TP1.
The end of week 2, happy with the results so far. Had a very busy week with balancing university, work and trading. Also, I told myself not to make stupid mistakes anymore like I did last week, since that took away some profits, I didn’t make any mistakes and stayed objective.
I have an other personal journal where I log a little more extensively, I review that journal every 2 weeks to spot certain patterns or potential issues regarding my strategy. So far, the trades I took had little or no drawdown, however, price just loses momentum and tends to float, due to my trade management I locked in profit before I let price crash after two days. But I would like to see some more momentum so that my TP2 also gets hit so I win big and lose small.
Took a pretty stupid trade last night, been watching EU all night long and I finally saw some nice volume picking up. The pair showed increased selling volume around resistance level, waited for an automatic rally breakthrough and entered. However, it was not a real clean looking trade, on the absolute higher prices there was no real selling volume (1min candles) and the AR was not as clean. I just entered and went to sleep, woke up with a loss this morning. Deserved that one for being impatient and entering too soon.
Good trade, but I got stopped out. Definitely looking to retake the trade since there is overwhelming buying volume. Should have taken a wider stop, since there was a lower support that price could test (which it did).
I traded the same trade again, last trade I should have waited for the test of the absolute low. I did the second time and it went pretty well, unfortunately weakness came in and I had to close half the position. Second half got stopped at BE. I am looking to trade the EU again since there are still buyers all over the place.
