-EURJPY resistance at 139
-GBPJPY channel resistance at 147 next week
-CHFJPY resistance at 90-91
-CADJPY looks most vulnerable near term
[B]
Euro / Japanese Yen[/B]
The complex correction from 113.59 should resolve itself within a few weeks. Near term, a couple of 4th of 5th waves of small degree should lead to completion of the entire advance. An area to watch for resistance is 1.39, which is the confluence of the 50% retracement of 170-113.59 and the 200 day SMA. If a top can be confirmed prior to that point, then I will alert reading of DailyFX via the alert section.
[B]
British Pound / Japanese Yen[/B]
The GBPJPY advance from 118.79 is viewed as corrective. Specifically, the advance is probably a 4th wave. A flat (a-b-c) is underway and wave c is nearing completion. The possible point of resolution for the entire advance from 118.79 is Elliott channel resistance, which crosses through roughly 147.40 next week.
[B]
Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen[/B]
The CHFJPY pattern looks the most mature. A picture perfect flat has been unfolding since the low at 74.66. Flats consist of 3 waves with subwaves of 3-3-5. Since 74.66, the CHFJPY rallied in 3 waves and declined in 3 waves. The rally from 75.38 is in its latter stages and consists of 5 waves. Based on the fact that other Yen crosses appear to have at least a week or more of strength in them before a top forms, look for resistance at 91.29; which is the October 14th high from 2008.
[B]
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
First, ignore the spike on the chart (false). There is parallel channel resistance at 81.03 today (the line decreases about 7 pips per day). The proximity of the CADJPY to the channel resistance line suggests that the CADJPY may begin weakening before other Yen pairs. A break of the RSI trendline would be a signal that the larger decline has resumed.
[B]
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
Just like the AUDUSD, the AUDJPY decline from its 2008 high in impulsive (5 waves) fashion. Sideways price action since the October low at 55 is choppy and corrective. One possibility is that a complex correction (like the EURJPY) is unfolding that will end above 70.58. Look for resistance in the weeks ahead near the 200 day SMA at 75.77.
[B]
New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
In order to get a better grasp on the NZDJPY long term potential, I zoomed out to look at the weekly chart. The most important observation is that the 2000-2007 advance is in 11 waves, which is corrective (triple zigzag to be specific). This means that the decline that began in 2007 should end below 41.94. There is resistance at the current juncture from the January high at 56.39. The next level of resistance is the confluence of a weekly November high and the 200 day SMA at 61.50. Based on patters in other Yen crosses, it seems likely that this level will be tested before price rolls over.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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