-EURJPY could top out near 128
-GBPJPY resistance at 137-138.50
-CADJPY may continue lower from current levels
-NZDJPY choppy downward sloping channel
[B]
Euro / Japanese Yen[/B]
There are a number of wave counts at the current juncture, so confidence in the pattern is low right now. One count treats the advance to 131 as the end of an A-B-C correction (flat). This count is valid as long as price is below 131.08. Exceeding that level would indicate that a larger more complex correction is underway that could reach as high as Fibonacci resistance near 139. Short term, expect a terminal thrust from a triangle could complete the rise from 112.04. There is potential resistance in the 128.00/50 zone (calculated pivots).
[B]
British Pound / Japanese Yen[/B]
The GBPJPY advance from 118.79 is viewed as corrective. Specifically, the advance is part of a 4th wave. With 3 waves up from 118.79, either a flat or triangle is underway. The next move is down in wave b (either a flat or triangle). The decline probably retraces a large portion of wave a. Near term resistance is in the 137-138.50 zone.
[B]
Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen[/B]
The CHFJPY pattern is similar to the EURJPY pattern. A 3 wave correction could be complete at 87.09. If so, then the CHFJPY should decline from current levels (below 87.09). Price may need to exceed 85.93 in order to complete a diagonal. Exceeding 87.09 negates the bearish bias.
[B]
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
The CADJPY should remain below 79.45 on its way to much lower levels. In fact, the pair is expected to break below the January low of 68.36.
[B]
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
In trying to figure out what is going on in the AUDJPY, I took into consideration the other Yen pairs, which are bearish. This is the only pattern that seems to make sense. Under this count, action since October has formed a triangle and a 5th wave is underway to fresh lows from 68.33. Price needs to remain below 68.33 in order for this count to remain valid.
[B]
New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
The NZDJPY remains below the top of a choppy downward sloping channel. Until a break above that channel line, the NZDJPY remains vulnerable to a new low in order to complete an ending diagonal from .6161.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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