CADJPY
CHFJPY
NZDJPY
Commentary – The CADJPY has come down to re-test the November low today. As long as price is below 111.53, the case can be made for a short term bearish bias (the pair has also recently come under the 200 day SMA). However, our contention with an outright bearish bias at this point is that the decline from the top (125.55) is far from clear in terms of structure. A clear 5 wave decline is not visible. An unclear wave from a significant top (or bottom) usually means that a larger more complex correction is unfolding (triangle, flat, double combination…etc). With this in mind, the CADJPY will likely see a bounce near term, although the lack of clarity in the pattern makes it difficult to determine where a rally will end. Chart resistance is at 112.00, 114.57, and 117.21.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – The CHFJPY has been stuck in an range that taken the form of a wedge from the 11/14 high at 99.77. A falling wedge is a corrective pattern and is an opportunity to get bullish. With this in mind, a bullish bias is warranted against 97.45 (bottom of wedge). We will be better able to determine a bullish target once the pair breaks from the wedge. Resistance is at 100.72.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – All of the 3 wave movements in the NZDJPY suggest that a triangle is unfolding. If a triangle is unfolding, then the third leg of the triangle (wave C) is complete and a rally towards 86.00 will complete wave D. Wave E (5th wave of a triangle) would follow and terminate somewhere above 80.31. Then, expect a breakout that carries price much higher (above the July high). If the triangle unfolds as expected, we will play the breakout. The pattern should resolve itself in the next few weeks. This is an opportunitu that we are following closely so keep an eye on FXCMTR for the setup.
Strategy – Flat