Yen Crosses Likely to Extend Before Reversing


CADJPY - The CADJPY is nearing the end of its run. The push through 109.09 makes the rally that began in early March at 97.50 5 waves (wave 3 is extended). We are watching for a turn from current levels although we won?t be sure that a top is in place until we see an impulsive decline. Daily RSI is overbought and divergent with the new high, which increases the likelihood that a top is near. Watch the cited resistance levels below (109.83 and 111.96) as well as the psychological 110.00 figure.

CHFJPY - The CHFJPY remains entrenched in the 5th wave of a 5 wave rally that began at 84.79 in June 2005. The 5th wave has formed a well defined channel and only a daily close below this channel would indicate additional bearish potential. Fibonacci measurements suggest that additional upside potential remains. The 161.8% extension of wave 1 (84.79-93.17/87.67) is at 101.24. The 61.8% extension of waves 1 through 3 (84.79-98.09/94.27) is at 102.41 and wave 5 (beginning at 94.27) would equal wave 1 at 102.65.

NZDJPY - The NZDJPY is trying to break higher from a month long consolidation. Remaining above 86.96 keeps the bullish structure intact. Fibonacci measurements are above 92.00. The 161.8% extension of 79.25-85.17/82.56 is at 92.23 and the 61.8% extension of 79.25-89.06/86.69 is at 92.74. The 1990 high is at 92.84.