Yen Crosses Remain In Uptrend but Stalling Urges Caution


CADJPY - The CADJPY is nearing the end of its run. There are 5 waves up from 97.50 and the rally from 107.17 is the 5th wave of this advance. In Elliott, a line drawn off of the bottom of waves 2 and 4 can be extended from the top of wave 1 in order to approximate the end of wave 5. Price hit this line yesterday. Still, the clear reversal signal does not come until a break below the bottom channel line, which is currently at about 108.60 (the line increases about 20 pips per day).

CHFJPY - “The CHFJPY remains entrenched in the 5th wave of a 5 wave rally that began at 84.79 in June 2005. The 5th wave has formed a well defined channel and only a daily close below this channel would indicate additional bearish potential. Fibonacci measurements suggest that additional upside potential remains. The 161.8% extension of wave 1 (84.79-93.17/87.67) is at 101.24. The 61.8% extension of waves 1 through 3 (84.79-98.09/94.27) is at 102.41 and wave 5 (beginning at 94.27) would equal wave 1 at 102.65.”

NZDJPY - The NZDJPY is trying to break higher from a month long consolidation. Remaining above 86.86 keeps the bullish structure intact. Fibonacci measurements are above 92.00. The 161.8% extension of 79.25-85.17/82.56 is at 92.23 and the 61.8% extension of 79.25-89.06/86.69 is at 92.74. The 1990 high is at 92.84.