Yen Crosses Run Into Resistance


[B]Commentary -[/B] We wrote last week that “upside potential looks limited, especially considering the near term outlooks for both USDCAD and USDJPY. Support is at the 6/8 low of 113.42. We have updated the count to show that wave 3 is extended and a period of consolidation/pullback should occur in wave 4 before a rally to a new high in wave 5.” This remains the preferred count. In other words, the correction in wave 4 is playing out now and the CADJPY is likely to register one more high (above 116.46) before additional bearish potential comes to the forefront. We?ll publish targets for the end of wave 5 as the advance begins to unfold.
[B]Strategy -[/B] None

[B]Commentary -[/B] A drop below 99.86 would make the decline from 100.85 in 5 waves and thus impulsive. This would set the stage for at least one more 5 wave decline. Connecting the bottom of waves 2 and 4 (of the 5 wave rally from 94.28) and extending a parallel line from the top of wave 3 projected the end to wave 5. Still, additional bearish potential does not exist until 5 waves are down from the top.
[B]Strategy -[/B] None

[B]Commentary -[/B] We wrote last week that “the next potential resistance point is where the rally from 77.42 would equal the 68.19-85.84 rally. Watch the resistance line drawn off of the May 2006, September 2006, and January 2007 highs. This line is near 94.50.” The pair has reached this point and the line has held thus far (daily closing basis). The NZDJPY has traded sideways since touching the line so there is no evidence of a reversal yet. As is always the case, a small 5 wave decline gives scope to a turn larger turn.
[B]Strategy -[/B] None