-EURJPY ideally stays below 130.93
-GBPJPY wave 4 complete
-CHFJPY breaks channel support
-CADJPY Elliott channel resistance holds
-AUDJPY tests channel support
[B]Euro / Japanese Yen[/B]
I wrote last week that “price ideally remains below 134.36 on its way lower.” The EURJPY accelerated lower in what was probably a 3rd wave within the 5 wave decline from 137.46. If an impulse is underway, then the EURJPY may be consolidation now in a 4th wave before the next lower. Price ideally remains beneath 130.93 on its way to lower. The next level of chart support is the March 12th low at 122.09. 124.20 is a Fibonacci extension that is in the center of a former congestion zone.
[B]British Pound / Japanese Yen[/B]
I wrote last week that “the GBPJPY advance from 118.79 is viewed as corrective. Specifically, the advance is a 4th wave and may be complete at 151.60, which is roughly the 38.2% of the decline from 215.98 at 149.27 (on a closing basis, the high is 149.21). Risk of a sharp decline is high.” The larger bearish count is on track as long as price is below 151.60. Near term, there is the risk of a rally back to 145.21 in a second wave. However, it is also possible that price continues lower now. Bottom line, rallies should be sold.
[B]Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen[/B]
Last update I wrote that “a picture perfect flat has been unfolding since the low at 74.66. RSI divergence at the recent high along with the indicator turning down and the 200 day SMA holding as resistance favors bears. Price ideally stays below 88.71.” The near term pattern is the exact same as the EURJPY. That is, a 4th correction may be underway that will lead to another bear leg. Price should stay below 86.35.
[B]Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
Very long term; “the advance from the all time low (57.88 in 1995) is in 3 waves (corrective). The suggestion is that the CADJPY should decline to an all-time low before a bottom is in place.” Price remains within the Elliott channel that has formed since the 2007 top. Last week I wrote that “I favor a top forming not far from 83.” The top was at 82.94…staying below there keeps the trend pointed lower. Bearish targets over the next few weeks are at 76.50 and 74.
[B]Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
Last I wrote last week that “although I can not confirm a top, I favor the downside at this point.” We still can not confirm that a top is in place but the weight of evidence favors as much. Staying below 72.54 keeps the trend pointed lower. A break of the channel that has held for most of 2009 would bolster the bearish bias. RSI appears on the verge of breaking its own trend, so perhaps the AUDJPY decline will accelerate soon.
[B]New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
At this point, the NZDJPY decline from the top is in just 3 waves. However, the second bear leg (wave 3) is extended thus hinting that the decline will form an impulse. Price ideally remains below 56.67 in order to complete an impulse from 60.40.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.