- CADJPY
- CHFJPY
- NZDJPY
CADJPY Our analysis from last week remains intact. The a-b-c 3 wave correction that we focused on last week remains intact. The a and c legs of the correction are very close to equal (335 and 345 pips). This is a property commonly found in a flat correction. This next leg down would be the third leg in a bearish sequence and third legs are often powerful. If 103.67 holds as resistance, then the first measured objective is at 97.25. This is where the decline from 103.67 would equal the 106.36-99.96 decline. 97.25 is also near the 1/9/2006 low of 97.10.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
CHFJPY The CHFJPY is very close to a support line drawn off of the 2/27/2006, 10/18/2006, and 11/2/2006 lows. A break below there would warrant a bearish bias. A decline below the 1/8 low at 95.57 would complete a double top from the 1/2 and 1/23 highs (98.04/09) and warrant a bearish bias. A trendline break would shift focus to the 61.8% fibo of 92.97-98.09 at 94.94. 97.50 is a strong resistance area but a break above there argues for a re-test of the double top.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
NZDJPY We wrote last week that a decline much below 83.37 gives scope to more bearish potential. In this case, focus would shift to the 161.8% extension of 85.48-83.69/85.17 at 82.27. Price has declined below 82.27 this week and NZDJPY appears to be on the verge of completing 5 waves down from 85.48. The next move should be a correction of weakness with initial resistance at the 2/5 high of 82.95. However, a break below 81.00 suggests more immediate bearish potential.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
Table
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(21) 21 day Momentum
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
*measured against past 3 months
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