Latest CFTC Release Dated February 29, 2008:
Discuss Trader Sentiment and Positioning at the DailyFX Forum
</p> The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over the last 52 weeks. A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. The last 4 weeks of the COT Index are shown because it is just as important to know where the index is coming from. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.
[B]US Dollar Index: [/B][B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 80 and 25 and trending down, indicating that dollar weakness will likely continue. Not until the indexes reach 0 will we begin to look for a bottom in the USD.[/B]
[B]Signal: [/B][B]Bearish[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]EUR: [/B][B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 2 and 8. The indexes have turned up from bearish extremes, which is extremely euro bullish. We will favor the upside until a 13 week bullish extreme is reached.[/B]
[B]Signal: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
[B]GBP[/B]: [B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 2 and 8. The implications are the same for the Pound as for the Euro. That is, sentiment has turned from a bearish extreme, which is bullish for Cable.[/B]
[B]Signal: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
[B]CHF:[/B][B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 71 and 33 and trending down, indicating that sentiment towards the CHF is bearish. Favor CHF weakness until a bearish extreme is registered.[/B]
[B]Signal: [/B][B]Bearish[/B]
[B]CHF:[/B][B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 71 and 33 and trending down, indicating that sentiment towards the CHF is bearish. Favor CHF weakness until a bearish extreme is registered.[/B]
[B]Signal: [/B][B]Bearish[/B]
[B]CAD: [/B][B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 25 and 33. Although CAD speculative longs fell significantly last week, the signal remains bullish because the last sentiment extreme was a bearish one (13 week index in early February).[/B]
[B]Signal: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
[B]AUD:[/B][B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 49 and 92 and trending up. Bulls should be careful here because the 13 week index is close to 100, indicating that the bullish boat is beginning to get a bit too crowded. [/B]
[B]Signal: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
[B]AUD:[/B][B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 49 and 92 and trending up. Bulls should be careful here because the 13 week index is close to 100, indicating that the bullish boat is beginning to get a bit too crowded. [/B]
[B]Signal: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
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