The $10k is to be given this week. And you can withdraw whatever you make out of it in 2031. Which would you buy?
90% gold, 10% BTC.
Interesting. I had thought you’d have at least 20% in btc!
Well by 2031 I will be 76 years old. At that age, it will be purely survival from the least risky asset to hold and the most easily disposed of - i.e, gold (or silver depending on ratio). I am not sure BTC will be around after 2025, it may disappear into oblivion. It is only 11 years old. Look what happened to the telex machine, fax machine and traditional e-mail servers. Tech moves too fast. Gold has been around for 5,000 years
The argument could be made then that it is 5,000 years old too no? Makes sense though re: relying on the least risky assets. 10% is good enough in case it does go up to $400k ha.
I don’t know enough about BT but if I did own BT now, I would dump it 'cos it looks ripe for a massive pullback.
In the long term - visions of tulips !
I’m sure I could be very wrong though.
Hehe yes that’s what they said when it was at ~20k in 2018.
Make more than that day trading the DAX !
P.S Nasdaq ain’t too bad either.
Your post was perfectly timed. This just appeared in my email inbox –
The ten-year holding period you specified in your question adds complexity to the analysis.
Back in November, when the bitcoin price was one-half of today’s price, I noted that 1 bitcoin was equal to 10 ounces of gold. And I asked the question "Which would you choose to hold for 1 year, 3 years, or 10 years?
You were the only person to offer an answer to my question – which proves, I guess, that the choice is not clear-cut, and the answer is too tough for the typical forex trader.
The answer requires attempting to look much farther into the future than most forex traders are accustomed to doing. Most of us trade on timelines ranging from hours to months. In order to see years ahead, a crystal ball is needed.
My crystal ball is way too foggy to be of any use. So, I have to envy this guy –
Well I will buy more of btc and 30% for gold! Btc looks more promising cause the big banks and organizations are now looking into btc and btc is now accepted as means of payment which means it will be here for long you knw why btc keep creating new ATH? It’s simply because holders are more than the sellers and people are buying more everyday so up it go
40% ETH, 30% Gold, 30% BTC.
I think that Bitcoin is just another Ponzi scheme and has no real value. Probably will not survive untill next year.
Take a step back and think about it. What gives Bitcoin value and drive the price up?
The willingness of people to use it as a meaning of trade/exchange and the limited supply?
NO!!! The current value of Bitcoin is set by the current belief and HOPE of the people that the price will continue to go up. What happens when the demand will decrease and investors will try to cash in profit, when the speculative demand will decrease? When that occurs, if the coin will not be used, at that time, as a meaning of exchange, everything will collapse.
Bitcoin at All time HIGH! No dip at all, sustainability is a big consideration.
Even though there is no evidence to suggest there won’t be a dip
Conventional wisdom says buy the dip! Buy the F ****** dip !
Old adage “Sell in May and go away!”
I just bought 135 gram of GOLD at SGD 82.01 yesterday worth 11K !!
Let’s all buy gold and push the prices up. Sell in May and go away
A picture paints a thousand words
A chart of Bitcoin in SGD must be a beautiful thing to behold!
the money I have had sitting in gold and silver the last 5 years would have made me very wealthy had I put it in Bitcoin, so give me an extra 10K and it is all going into Bitcoin
50% gold 50% btc I’ll risk it both equally and see the outcome
You invest in 70% btc and 30% gold
There is no doubt in my mind about the probability that it will go up to $400K. I estimate this probability at 50%. The issue is WHEN. Left to its own fundamentals, though I do not fully understand it, the stock to flow model seems to fit well, given that the supply will remain static at 21million BTC by year 2140, with an estimated 18.5 million in circulation (but 4 million lost or unrecoverable). My own 5 year plan assumes that it will hit $400K before the end of 2025 (the end of my crypto investment time horizon for now). In May we had planned to own 0.25 BTC as 10% of our portfolio by 2025. In September we took a decision to increase that to 0.5BTC as 30% of our portfolio and in December we changed yet again to increase that to 2.0 BTC as 80% of our portfolio. That is a lot of change in eight months, but importantly, that plan guides our tactics by the year, month and week to strive to achieve that goal. Today we just bought another 0.015BTC on a 6% dip. That may seem like the slow boat to China, but if it’s not planned it’s not going to materialise. And whereas our initial plan was an investment plan only, it now includes a trading element that is required for us to achieve the new goal of 2.0 BTC by 2025.
I agree with you.