What are the latest reports and news on the growth bot?
"Did anyone else take a huge hit today that wiped out all profits last week?
should we be turning off FGB (and most EAs) Fridays and Mondays or something ?
"
Yep
Did anyone else take a huge hit today that wiped out all profits last week?
should we be turning off FGB (and most EAs) Fridays and Mondays or something ?
Started running FBG 01 Feb and while I did take that hit i’m still up 2% for feb so far.
I’ve done some analysis on Eugene’s results on myfxbook.
He claims that he has ran this analysis on Thinkforex. Thinkforex has MT4 and MT4 Pro accounts. MT4 account has “Market” spreads, no comissions and minimum deposit of $500 (it probably has been lower before). MT4 Pro account has “Interbank” spreads, comissions and minimum deposit of $10k. So Eugene has been using standard (non-pro) account most likely. That means there is no commissions (commissions are included in spread) so Myfxbook results should be accurate. That being said I’m not sure how easy is it easy to hack these mxfxbook.com verification methods though.
I imported the results to .csv file and did some MATLAB analysis. Eugene has taken some extra risk on first couple of trades on the beginning of this forward-test period. Note that he started with 0.05 lots only on $250 account and after a hot run on those trades he shifted to 0.01 lots and started building up from there. He has probably started these forward tests again a couple times to make it look more impressing (with hot start) before publishing anything or then he simply got lucky with his first trial. There is also a big 0.36 lot trade on 10/26/2011 which is probably caused by a bug on the bots code or by some other random occurence.
After the hot beginning results have been rather stable with around 5.7 pip average win per trade. If the hot streak at the beginning is included that makes average win per trade about 10 pips. I generated a pip-result graph which gives us the leverage-neutral performance. Some statistics:
Days graphed: 463.25
Trades: 607
Max drawdown (on closed trades, unrealized most likely bigger): 939.4 pips
Total profit: 6075 pips
Profit per day (252 days per year): 19 (11.47 after hot beginning)
Maximum non-trading period: 11.22 days
Average duration between trades: 18.24 hours
Max trade duration: 12.71 days
Average trade duration: 13.3 hours
Max win: 529.6 pips (at the beginning)
Max loss: 112.5 pips
Average loss: 30.5 pips (31.2 after hot beginning)
Average win: 64.4 pips (60.2 after hot beginning)
Winning percentage: 42.7% (40.4% after hot beginning)
Profit factor: 1.57 (1.31 after hot beginning)
Annualized Sharpe ratio (risk free rate 4%, closed basis): 3.70 (2.41 after hot beginning)
Have a look at the graphs too:
Graphs show use of leverage (lot size), pip graph and duration between trades
Conclusion: It seems like we have got a VERY nice strategy here (according to Eugene’s forward test) even when removing the effect of better-than-normal start.
I will do some backtests as well and let you know about the results. Starting from tomorrow I will also do forward tests using a demo account on VPS.
I hope this will be helpful for you guys 
Backtest Results (1/1/2001-12/31/2011, 5/60/2 default settings) No transaction costs:
Modelling quality says N/A because I modelled only on the open of bar. I have minute data as well that I checked is quite good (I got it from Alpari UK) and only thing that differs between open-bar and tick-to-tick backtests is calculation time and drawdown amounts (drawdowns can vary inside the bar which is not visible on open bar tests). The difference between drawdowns is very small and I want to save time so I will run my backtests bar-open basis.
Bars in test 273774
Ticks modelled 546455
Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 1000.00
Total net profit 27343.80
Gross profit 106844.34
Gross loss -79500.54
Profit factor 1.34
Expected payoff 5.25
Absolute drawdown 377.40
Maximal drawdown 1239.76 (64.61%)
Relative drawdown 64.61% (1239.76)
Total trades 5213
Short positions (won %) 2532 (40.21%)
Long positions (won %) 2681 (42.75%)
Profit trades (% of total) 2164 (41.51%)
Loss trades (% of total) 3049 (58.49%)
Largest
profit trade 597.00
loss trade -116.00
Average
profit trade 49.37
loss trade -26.07
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 16 (485.76)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 31 (-524.66)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 2370.60 (11)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -569.10 (14)
Average
consecutive wins 3
consecutive losses 4
I pulled the trade data to MATLAB to do some extra analysis and add transaction costs:
Without transaction costs:
Max Drawdown (on trade close basis): 1107 pips
Max Drawdown duration: 390 days
Winning percentage: 41.5%
Average pips/trade: 5.25
Average win: 49.4 pips
Average loss: 26.1 pips
Profit factor: 1.34
Annualized Sharpe ratio (4% risk free rate, closed basis): 3.43
Average duration between closed trades: 18.5 hours
Maximum duration between closed trades: 12.8 days
With transaction costs (1.5 pips per trade):
Max Drawdown (on trade close basis): 1686 pips
Max Drawdown duration: 854 days
Winning percentage: 41.2%
Average pips/trade: 3.75
Average win: 48.2 pips
Average loss: 27.4 pips
Profit factor: 1.23
Annualized Sharpe ratio (4% risk free rate): 2.45
As you can see, adding transaction costs really hurts the performance. Nevertheless, these results are very good.
I did some test with other parameters:
Same backtest as above with 9/60/2 more than doubled profit/trade! Also profit factor increased to 1.81. Total profit is about the same but drawdown was about 1800 pips.
Adjusting second and third parameter only produced losses on my quick test.
Where can i download this robot? Thanks
Anyone is trading this EA live?
I’ve got it live and have been running it for about a month now. I’ve seen it through a Sweet winning streak and only to turn around and lose its gains. This seems to be the type of ea that you have to take a longer term approach with. It does have a significant live forward test to back it up however so I’m trusting it to end up on top in the end.
I am
I had very average results.
Last month the first week I ran it live on IBFX AU it made me 20%
Since then it has only taken losses.
It trades almost daily but I tend to turn it off Friday night so there are no open trades the following week which could kill you or make you lots of $$$. Too risky.
Im still hopeful but i’ve reduced lot size.
I’ll try and start a myfxbook to show people results
I’m live too
Johnny how many pairs are you running FGB on and how many trades (on average) is it executing per week?
T.I.A.
-11% total drawdown of 21.38
4 trades today for 25 pips! Still going good!
"Today has been good! Im still carry profitable trades…
But when will FGB close them?
should I close them manually to not risk them turning around ?
At the same time I want to know how FGB will react without intervention"
Close manually.
Today has been good! Im still carry profitable trades…
But when will FGB close them?
should I close them manually to not risk them turning around ?
At the same time I want to know how FGB will react without intervention
Had a great day for this ea as well, and I just closed manually 4 outstanding trades to lock in the profit. In general doing that violated my don’t touch ea trades rule…but looking at the overall market conditions and how the Asian session does tend to retrace gains I decided to simply be happy with a 6% gain for the day. I’m not greedy.
Good so I’m not the only one that has been tempted.
I put a message on my VPS wall paper that says "No Manual Trading allowed!"
lol
I think 95% of the times I’ve interfered with an EA I’ve either taken a loss which I didn’t need to have have …or made less profit than my EAs on demo accounts.
What other EA’s are you using Hammo? How does FGB rank against others?
Well sometimes you just have to make a call, I’d like to think that there is still some aspects of human interaction required to manage a portfolio of EAs…even if it just comes down to the selection of EAs and what risk settings to place them on.
If/when I close trades manually it’ll cost me profit one day, but I can live with this.
At the moment i’m running SmartFX Master Scalper/Breakout Hunter(@50% risk), Fast Forex Millions, Forex Growth Bot, Forex Flow, Megadroid & Steadywinner V5. Also sitting in a corner I have Black Belt EA running on 0.01 lots to test it out. As I type it out it seems like a lot, but Steadywinner and Megadroid only rarely trade and aside from FBG everything trades relatively small lots. As I recall, the most trades i’ve ever had open was 15ish trading quite small trade sizes. Death by papercuts…
Of course I’ve only been running it a month now, but I’ve found that FBG requires a bit of patience and trust to let it do its thing. It tends to have a series of losses in a row followed(caused by false breakouts essentially) followed by a great run when it gets it right. The reason I trust FBG [I]at the moment [/I]is because of 2 things…1) It has a live forward history and 2) enough forum traffic to demonstrate that the overall results are not [I]Completly[/I] broker dependant.
How does it rank overall? Well, its not under consideration of removal at the moment…
Johnny how has the system worked for you this year? Did you modify the presets in any way?