i would say that you are not far wrong - compare the 2 Asain Sessions - the fibre and Us 10YR price - remember they usually act inverted.
notice the sharp rise in the 10yr WHILE fibre also was rising - this divergence very often indicates a false move, often I've seen that the bond market is right.
Also notice the doji on the 10yr up at the asian high later on, guess what time that is - 9.00 -9.15 gmt,
Now check the 9.15 candle on mt4 on fibre - checking my feed in my live a/c - that fibre action was 15mins later.
There were 2 heads up this morning from the 10 yr divergence - the first after AS that the fibre rise was judas and the second was at 9.00 LO that the fall had reached an end.