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Show me the money! [Swing Trading] Need some swing trading ideas? Want to share your own swing trade ideas? If you're the next Jerry Maguire and think you can show us the money, then this thread is for you.

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  #41 (permalink)  
Old 01-06-2008, 08:56 AM
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kagein kagein is offline
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Would you take these trades this week?

Long on the eur/cad

Short on the gbp/chf

charts are attached
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File Type: jpg eurcad.jpg (36.4 KB, 59 views)
File Type: jpg gbpchf.jpg (37.7 KB, 56 views)
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  #42 (permalink)  
Old 01-06-2008, 03:21 PM
daedalus daedalus is offline
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Your EUR/CAD trade is right on, except it looks like it took the 50% retrace this time around... if it came down and confirmed at the 61.8% level, I would go long there. Or if this current move makes a higher high, I would try and play off that next swing.

Same goes for the GBP/CHF... You've got the right idea, the right swing measured. Currently I would be measuring the next downswing that started mid december (around the 18th or so) and seeing how that grid plays out. Its just a wait game to see if she retraces appropriatly. Daily charts require a LOT of patience, but they pay off huge. I'm mock trading daily setups using FX options puts/calls and i think it will probably be my trade instrument of choice on all of my 4 Hr and Daily setups from now on. Just gotta find a good options broker now... i've spent 4 months searching for brokers now... its like the ongoing process from hell... lol!

Cheers mate! Let me know if you've got any other questions.
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  #43 (permalink)  
Old 01-06-2008, 08:12 PM
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im going to try this out and see if i got it. Thanks for this thread too.
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  #44 (permalink)  
Old 01-07-2008, 11:35 AM
daedalus daedalus is offline
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Just a repost from the newbie section, but I thought since this is my trading thread, and it refers to how I trade, it would make for a good addition to anyone reading the thread.


I thought i'd take some time of my day to try and hammer home a point which has recently become a bit of an "awakening" for myself. And I think its advice any newbie could benefit from. THE TRADING JOURNAL! *DUN DUN DUN DUHHHHHHHH*

Scoff. Laugh. Mock. But seriously, its a key component of any traders arsenal if they intend to improve their trading management, entries, and finesse.

I used to keep a detailed journal, and then somehow, I stopped along the way sometime last year. I didn't think much of it... it was just a stupid excel spreadsheet right? It couldn't actually have an effect on my trades... i mean I knew what I was doing, and no spreadsheet would've helped one bit. Well, thats not entirely true.

The truth of the matter is i've found it to be an integral part of my recent success. The journal has little effect on my entries, but plays a large role in my trade management and profit taking, which in my opinion are the crucial element of trading that separates the winners from the losers.

How many times have you been in a winning trade and you knew in the back of your mind you were supposed to wait for something to happen before you got out of the trade. An indicator was supposed to cross, a resistance level was supposed to be hit, a candlestick pattern was supposed to form... but you bailed. You thought to yourself, "Self: I have profit here... I want to take profit and feel safe because I will have WON!". Don't lie, we've all been there. My guess is a lot of you are still there.

Whats worse is your systems that everyone in here trades has been backtested by yourself. And in that backtesting, you adhered to a set of rules, you won't exit until X happens. But now that its live, and its real, and its happening, you find yourself lacking the courage to commit to your decision. This is where the journal comes in.

Each trade I take, I list the time, date, pair, timeframe, and in then i list in a comments section the reasoning behind the trade - did I have everything going in my favor. Immediately, if that isn't the case I have to write it down, which means I have to process the thought that I have done something I know I shouldn't have. I gambled. The journal made me realize this thought that might go otherwise unnoticed. More importantly, i follow up each trade with continued comments on my management.

My trading style requires me to manipulate stops and take profits at certain profits levels. However, it can be sooooo tempting to jump out half of your contract 5 pips before that target is hit... We don't want to miss it do we? But if I did that, I have to write about it in my journal, and I have to admit to myself that I have broken my rules - the rules that I built to protect myself, and make money.

A trading journal forces yourself to be held accountable for your actions. Its one thing to put on a position, do everything right, and have the market move against you. But your conscious is clear. You did everything you could've, and it just didn't work. I can live with that. Its a much worse feeling to put something on you shouldn't have in the first place, or worse, start getting jiggy with your profits due to a "feeling" instead of sticking to what you KNOW.

By journaling your entries you keep a dialog of introspective honesty that holds yourself accountable. And in a business where you make or break yourself, I can't think of much else that is more important than that.

Long story - short... Journaling provides a structure to force yourself into adherence with the rules you already claim to be following. And at the end of the day, week, month, and year, it will add to your P/L, I guarantee it.

Novel Mode Off....

Cheers!
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  #45 (permalink)  
Old 01-08-2008, 03:49 AM
stef stef is offline
 

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to daedalus
Is this setup valid to open short position at the red arrow?
the previous candlestick close under 61.8 fibo
please help i am new to fibo
thanks
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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 01-08-2008, 11:05 AM
daedalus daedalus is offline
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Yup, if that line where the arrow is at is a close under the 61.8 that was valid. Doesn't look like it turned out too well, but that happens to the best of us! Looks like it didn't quite make the 38% retracement to take profit and remove risk. But you've got the concept right!
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 01-08-2008, 04:12 PM
cdutoit cdutoit is offline
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Thanks for the detailed trade-by-trade samples. I'm quite interested in Fibs and am trying to follow your system.

I'm still a little confused on using the MA's to determine bullish or bearish trends - How is this done? Are you saying if the shorter MA is above the longer MA its bullish? Or are you saying if price is above the MA is bullish.

That is, could you explain how to read the "MA's" from a Trend perspective?

Thanks
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 01-08-2008, 05:46 PM
daedalus daedalus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdutoit View Post
Thanks for the detailed trade-by-trade samples. I'm quite interested in Fibs and am trying to follow your system.

I'm still a little confused on using the MA's to determine bullish or bearish trends - How is this done? Are you saying if the shorter MA is above the longer MA its bullish? Or are you saying if price is above the MA is bullish.

That is, could you explain how to read the "MA's" from a Trend perspective?

Thanks
Good question, i guess I didn't explain that well enough and I can see how it could be misinterpreted. Bullish if the 21 is above the 34, bearish if the 21 is below the 34.

Keep in mind folks, these MA's are just a guideline. If you find that a 61/78 pair works better or a 50/100 pair, whatever, they are all going to catch some that others won't and miss some that others won't. I've just found what I think is a nice compromise that typically holds the trends fairly well for playing pullbacks and can still be nimble enough to catch trend reversals.

I've revised my trade management a bit in how i'm scaling in/out of trades and i'll post up details a bit later on this evening. I spent the day going through my recent trades and came up with some pretty startling results.

Cheers!
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  #49 (permalink)  
Old 01-08-2008, 06:43 PM
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cant wait for the update...

just wanna say that the trade journal is an excellent idea, i like to add a pop up screenshot of my trades in excel at the end of the day, just to help me visualize my comments.

it may be too much, but i like it
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  #50 (permalink)  
Old 01-08-2008, 07:49 PM
stef stef is offline
 

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Question

Hi,daedalus
thanks for your reply.My second upload image is continious to my
previous demo trade.Look the total move of the pair and make your
comments please.It was better to close the trade at 87% fibo or
something else?I'm confused with the 89 and 200 EMA's as you
have mentioned in previous post.Are they helps you to trading instead
of the 21 and 34 EMA's?
thanks in advance
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