for the month of oct there is a small divergence in yields between the 3 bonds on the 10 year…
On the 1H, GU looks like it is not making a higher high (established last friday), while eu already made a higher high
I spent the last hour or so debating with myself about exactly that trade…
but 1.5 hours ago I wrote a sticky note to my screen stating “No Counter Trend Trades for now!”
It has been a psychological battle ever since… set up limit sell order or not…
there are many many converging signals to take the short - the bear div on US yields and the bear OTE with big fig…
I would still expect this trade to be a short term retracement into a nice entry long.
Until now I am flat, as I am really trying hard to stick to my new rules… however, I am thinking this short trade could be a winner. I will watch it go without me just to proof that one voice inside my head a point;)
hahaha
cheers
Come on guys, what does ICT preach over and over and over again?
Well yes :D, but what I was getting at was ‘Market Structure’ ‘Market Structure’ Market Structure’, you have to learn from mistakes, not keep doing them over and over again.
Yes.
But to be fair, he also said that key SR trumps market flow… Now the hard part for an unexperienced trader (like me) is to determine when to apply which rule;)
Just like it is still not quite clear for me which tools to use in which market environment and so on…
for right now my struggle is psychological in nature - and unlike a fight in the market, in which the market will always win, I NEED to win the psychological struggle, otherwise I might as well donate my money to charity before smartmoney strips it from me;)
So I am staying flat and only look for buys until market structure changes Or until I become a substantially better trader to risk countertrend trades…
However - I sincerely hope a sell off will occur anytime soon - because I would really like to see a nice opportunity to get long;)
missed the small SMT divergence in Mondays Asian Range and didnt find much other opportunities to get long (OTEs during Killzones) ever since…
lets see how this week goes.
One thing is for sure…while I learn a lot all the time… I really learn even more right now during my loosing streak…
cheers and good luck
Likewise, I struggle not knowing when to apply what tool. Recuperating now by watching the materials again, after a string of losses.
On the other hand, I remind myself not to hope for or expect anything. Because I might blend that mentality into my trading and break my rules.
@FresFresh
Yes, I got you, but don’t worry too much about the psychology for the time being, you need to get to a certain competency I think before you worry about that, no point worrying about your psychology if you don’t know if you’ve done it right or wrong, but you will need to worry about psychology when you know you’ve put a trade on.
You make a good point about Market Structure and key S/R levels, I think this image might help.
I am interested in a short now.
K made a valid thorough evaluation, I think. What would you change or fine tune?
Well you’ve got that key 3000 level, it’s hit it within a pip or 2 before, and this time with the higher lows, there is no way it will stop at 3000.
EDIT: easy for me to say that after the event though, but…
Now for ZEW to send it down a little, so we can get that long to 3100 
Can I say that rather than trying to figure out what tool to use when and where etc, find what works for you. I think too many are trying to make everything “fit”. You want to create your own trading model, something that confirms to your own logic and profile. The videos are the framework,fit your own windows and doors. The creator will always know more about his model, he built it, he knows where the screws went in. He can teach you how it works but to become your own master you yourself must become the creator.
Excellent point, I don’t use many of the tools really, but the few I do know how to use, I use them well.
But, different strokes and all that.
I am still at that stage, finding what works for me. I am not trying to make myself think like ICT, we all have our own profile and thus trading style.
It just feels like I have the materials (training and review videos) and tools (fib, indi’s) to build a house. I am probably making the frame, the door, the window etc pieces by pieces, whether correctly or incorrectly (just like the wins/loss trades). But I am still not sure how all these should be put together as a final piece ( i.e. consistently good/profitable trades).
Hope that make sense.
I agree,
By far Im not using all the tools ICT has presented.
What I meant, and I believe what Palmy meant as well, is for example:
when does the traders trinity work best? Is is in a trending or ranging environment (lets say on an H1 timeframe)As I do believe that certain tools work best during specific market environments…
Armed with this knowledge we would know how much weight we should lay on those signals, and when we should disregard certain signals all together…
not sure if its clear what Im trying to say haha
but I definitely agree with you, that we need to find our own set of tools and a model that works for us… but I would prefer to have 2 sets of tool and 2 strategies… one for range and one for a trending environment…
Agree. That’s why I’d rather go back to “class” than continue to trade when I hit several losses, just to see what did I miss.
Almost like - build a window, it works! Move on to build a door, it doesn’t work! Go back to read the manuals and training materials again. 
Hey traders,
I don’t want to flood this thread like I do the other one 
But please take a look at my posts on today’s view.
Thx
Sybrand
Not quite the same though, with trading you get this kind of thing- place a trade and it goes right, however there is the possibility that it was a trade that you should never have entered to in the first place and 8 times out of 10 you enter that trade it will lose.
With a door, you know if it’s right or not, i.e. it works, it opens and it shuts, do the same again it open and it shuts, NOT the case with trading.
But yes, the principle is right, but it’s never hard and fast with Forex.
you’re spot on my friend. I’m in it too, at 3006 (coz I’m greedy, lol)
just to add couple more confluences:
- Judas is up from the open
- Reflection pattern from yesterday’s swing down
- bearish divergence on 1H Stoch And MACD
so, as far as I can see it, its no brainer short
as I type, just took some off and locked 1 pip profit
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