The 3 Duck's Trading System

@Spoof,
So tell us, what did you find 24 hours later? If the trade was still open did you close it right there or did you leave it open?

One trade not triggered and the other ended with a 20 pip loss when my SL was hit. Both currencies in a bit of a range in the trend it appears.

Keep an eye on UsdCad, should comply with all 3 ducks later today, just waiting on M5.

USDCAD has been a runner this week. But any new trades at this point of time via the B/O setup will need to keep track of the weekly range. Just my own opinion. :slight_smile:

That’s a good point Ray.
It’s pitched well over the 3 month weekly range + tacked on the longest stretch of consecutive bullish (or bearish) days for nearly 2 years.

The higher probability/lower risk bet on this pair was earlier in the week. That’s not to say it can’t or won’t continue trekking higher, & of course you can use the cycle highs/lows to guide you on that score, but it’s always very prudent to be aware of average daily & weekly ranges & information such as unusual (consecutive) cyclical data when prepping your gambles.

Thanks for this awesome insight. This is the kind of stuff that I’m still learning to incorporate into my trading.

Ya, they say the CAD is likely to go all to **** this year. I would imagine the USD will continue on up in comparison, but whether it happens in spurts or a steady trend I have no idea.

Well the beauty of operating a flexible approach such as this is that as long as the background ducks (4 & 1 hour) & entry criteria (5min) stacks up it doesn’t matter how an instrument or currency behaves just as long as you can grab a bite or a chunk or two out of it whenever it obliges, dependant on your objective at outset.

It’s a constant balance of risk & value.
Your job is to determine how much of the former you’re prepared to take on board to justify the latter each & every time you consider engaging, & you’d certainly be wise to consider including influences such as those I mentioned to help stack the odds a bit more in your favor.

Well, sat down today to look at my trades from yesterday. One trade hit 50 pip SL, two trades closed as non-performing for a loss and one not triggered. I couldn’t find anything tonight that meets the requirements - things seem to be going sideways at the moment. That will conclude this week’s trading slaughter. Hopefully next week will be better.


For tonight, I’m watching -
AUD/ JPY - possible sell
AUD/ USD - Possible sell
EUR/ AUD - Possible buy
EUR/ CAD - Possible buy
USA/ CAD- Possible buy

Hey Koman,
I am curious as to what you see in the these two H4 charts that would make you take a trade. I think they are ranging over the last day or so which is what got me killed this week - no breakouts happening here :frowning:

AUDUSD


USDCAD


Did you take his advanced course? Part of the beauty of his system, and the way I understood when he explained it to me, was that we were trying to get onto trends and big moves as they happened and not wait to get in once it was underway.

This is how my trade is looking right now.

My results last night were that I made money on EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, and AUD/USD.

Yes, I took his advanced course. Too, funny, I would have made money on both those charts I posted had I placed a trade. Damnit. I also would have made money on two other trades I was eyeing. The trouble is you don’t know when the price is going to break out of a range or keep bouncing around and take out your stop - which is what seemed to happen to me all this week except for last night/today! Grrr. Better trading next week I hope.

Hahaha I couldn’t agree more!! I was really hard on myself at the beginning of the week for losing so many pips but I then realized that this system is not focused on the Risk to Reward as much as simply making money over time so I just need to keep placing my trades and the big winners should take care of things. I didn’t make back everything I lost earlier this week but I am still in profit this month. Yes, we’ll get those pips next week!

Greetings Duck Hunters,

Bulls tried but couldn’t get control this morning, looks to me like there’s a bit of profit-taking happening over on the Usd.Cad pair. If you’re already long this pair you might want to start thinking of moving your stop-loss up and locking in some profit.

What I’m thinking is, will we see buyer re-entering if we get pullbacks to lower levels, I think we will. I’m still bullish on this pair, 1st Duck (4hr chart) won’t allow me to be any other way …

That 1.4400 area of past resistance I [/I]could become future support (if price drops that low), a spot where buyer might try and get long again, buying the pullback!


Fundamentally, Bank of Canada interest rate decision this Wed coming (20th). Will they be bold and cut rates in the coming months - low oil prices ain’t helping the Cad - somebody might need to do something quick …

Good trading to you all for the week ahead,

Andy
Captain Currency

I made a few bad trades yesterday, but am faring better today. Tonight I have taken AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, and EUR/AUD.
Screenshot of the AUD/JPY trade -

Hello there.

I was wondering if this method could work on longer time frames. Lets say 1D, 4H and 1H for entry point (when I don`t have time to look at chart every 5 minutes). Did anyone try that?

Thanks

I would suggest B[/B] using [I]The 3 Ducks Trading System[/I] exactly as taught, in order to gain a high-probability entry into the market — and then B[/B] letting market dynamics determine whether your position ends as a day-trade, or develops into a short-term trade (lasting a couple of days), a swing trade (lasting a couple of weeks), or a position trade (lasting months, or longer).

The methodology you are contemplating essentially relies on the 1-hour chart to trigger an entry, as opposed to the 5-minute chart as taught in [I]The 3 Ducks.[/I] The 1-hour time-frame gathers twelve 5-minute candles into each 1-hour candle, obscuring the price action which occurs within each 60-minute period. So, when you base your entry on the price-action you see on the 1-hour chart, you are basically blind to the price-action on lower time-frames.

Your entry on a 1-hour chart may catch a valid move in your desired direction on your 1-hour trigger chart, while at the same time catching a significant counter-move on a smaller time-frame. As a result, you have to endure the counter-move on the smaller time-frame, taking the temporary loss (presumably on paper) produced by that counter-move.

On the other hand, entering on a smaller time-frame can help you avoid some of these temporary losses — without, in any way, preventing your trade from running as long and as far as market dynamics will allow.

Ideally, when going long, you would like to catch an up-wave on your smallest time-frame, which then rolls into an up-wave on your intermediate time-frame, and finally rolls into up-waves on longer time-frames. This sort of entry, when you get it right, has the wonderful characteristic of moving immediately into profit, never threatening your initial stop-loss.

Years ago, a very smart trader taught me a valuable lesson on entries.

She said, “Every trade begins as a scalp.”

It took a while for me to understand the depth of that short statement. My take on it is this: No matter which time-frame you think you are trading (meaning [I]entering[/I]), price-action on the scalping time-frames (tick, 1-minute, maybe 5-minute) will determine what happens to your trade in the first seconds, or minutes, after entry. Then, price-action on the longer time-frames will determine what happens to your trade over the next few hours, over the remainder of the day, over the rest of the week, and beyond.

Clearly, if you have the good fortune to enter a day-trade that has “legs” — one that develops into a successful longer-term trade — then, you will want to look at longer-term charts. That’s when you should widen your view to the Daily or Weekly charts. But, this is should happen in the [I]trade management[/I] phase in your trade — [I]not at the entry.[/I]

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Finally, contrary to the statement in your post, [I]The 3 Ducks[/I] as taught (using H4-H1-m5 charts) does not require you to “look at charts every 5 minutes”. There is no need for that.

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Great answer. Thanks a lot. I get it now :slight_smile: