What return should I expect? 15%? 200%?

Beginner Questions
22

COMMMMMON MANNNNNNNN,

eddieb, dont turn on me Bro, your getting all fxclark on me and stuff. You know my route, my routine for my wind-ups. Im not here to sell systems, or give signals, or direct you to my website. Im just here to make money, and fill a void in my life that WILL give me financial freedom in the near future.

Constantly losing Tiny chunks of money bro, get that right. Im not $1000’s in the hole. You know this is practice. Like boxing, you have ups and downs, but to get that Championship belt, you have to climb the ladder of knowledge, persistance, stamina, and DESIRE to win that sht.

The hard work and dedication to get there. The countless hours of getting your ass whopped on, is all part of the game.

LOL, just noticed I spelled Management wrong in that title, bwhahaha, thats funny a little bit, lol…

my early goal 4 years ago was to make 25% a day on my balance. You’ve seen me grow. So, I started conservatively at 5%, which today, I can do with no problem.

62% in 2 days, hit that goal of 25% a day now didnt it?

So why throw knifes at me for striving and tryin my ass off, working hard, studied, putting in the time needed to be successful in this business where 97% fail and fall on their face, maybe jump off a building, or hang themselves in the closet?

Want me to bring up the Doctor degree again? 25 years of schooling just to end up having to pay 1.5 million a year in bills for the rest of their lifes in hopes of opening their own practice and work for themselves?

If I have to PRACTICE for 7 years, Im ahead of that curve. I’ll throw a large chunk of money at this when Im ready.

What Im saying is, DONT SET YOUR LIMITS TO THE INDUSTRY STANDARD. SET YOUR LIMITS BY YOUR STANDARD.

If I had $10,000 to bankroll this, I could easily be a hero here Huh. Work maybe 3 minutes a day, make a small trade for .05% and call it a day?

I dont have that luxury, and Im sure many dont.

At the end of the day, eddieb, You dont have a hand in my bankroll, you have no intrest in my bankroll, so all you should be saying are positive things, and give pats on the back, when we are all thrying to make money, Bro…

You know, just like kids, they need a pat on the back, to encourage, push them to excel. There is very little of that here, especially when Im not selling sht here, or link directing for anyone’s benefit.

It just so happens Im tryin to do things people just dont do in this business, and thats get FILTHY FREAKIN RICH OVER NIGHT!!!

" Its not over night, you been at this for 5 years you moron", I said it for you guys,…

When I get to where I need to be, it will be over night Riches. Until then, its preparation for the task, with little risk. Im not there yet. I have things to improve. How can you improve on 62% in 2 days, 18 wins no loses? I should of been up 150% in those 2 days, thats how.

Dont come at me dawg, we’re after the same bit of the pie, my nickel. :wink:

23

Hi imperfection85,

Depending on the strategy that you adopt. If you are a consistently profitable trader.
100% winning trade is also a possibility.
For example, you make 20 trades and got all correct. You have 100% win rate.
Then after 100 trades, you have 30 trade that result in a lost. You have 70% win rate.
Its just a matter of time, when it will reflect your true winrate. The higher the numbers of trade the more accurately it reflects your ability.

I started a demo account few days back. Currently, I have 100% winrate. I do hope to maintain it this way. It really foster confidence. Question is how long can I continue to maintain a 100% winrate? Well it is a possibility, but the more I trade eventually, well my results will eventually show how good I am or how bad I am.

result1.jpg700×359 27.2 KB

result2.jpg700×174 17.4 KB

result3.jpg700×497 61.1 KB

18 straight winners
I know… Just pure Luck! :wink:

By the way, took me 3 years of ENORMOUS effort and Time to obtain my current skill level.
Literally, almost died trying…

24

Great job bushidoleaf, keep rockin it buddy,

25

Bush, not stealling your thunder,

After I made some changes here is my current demo, ( Wed this week- 3 days ) 1:50 lev
I would of been 100%, but each loss was from slippage, at to why the highest loss was just 2.3 pips. ANd this is on a pair that has a spread of 11 pips, ( GBPNZD ) AND, this is a new pair for me, with just 4 days of practice with this pair.

demo222.jpg700×422 29.5 KB

26

Imperfection85, your line of thinking is right until this point:

Huge misconception. This is not coin flipping, that whatever you do, on the long run both the wins and losses going to get equal. If you enter the market without strategy based on this idea, your basic winrate far from 50%. Can’t be told exactly how much, but the market does not work that way like coin flipping. You also forgot that you have to pay spread and the fact that when you lose, you have to win back more to be at the same level. So even in an ideal world a 50% winrate strategy with 1:1 RR wouldn’t be profitable.

Actually no, it would be more than 200% because of the compounding. But yeah, pretty much things work out as you wrote, except that part about the 50% long term winrate.

This is the point where math and real trading move apart. Doing 1% constantly, on daily level is harder than it seems. But to give some good news too, usually doing 10-15-20% monthly can be manageable, according the common standpoint. Except if your name is MoneyNVRSleeps. Burnt himself a few times, but I believe this is gonna be the right way to success. Don’t stop under 100% daily gains buddy. ;D

27

Hi MoneyNVRSleeps

Okay, Thanks for posting…
Now I have a goal to achieve… when I reach 170 trade
I will attempt to have at least 92% winrate.

I shall now attempt to push my bankai level to Horoka! :43:

28

you can do it!!!

Set your own standard, limit is nothing,

play to win the game!!!

Win!! Winnn!!!winnnnnn!!!

29

Money, you know I wasn’t having a go at you, for Pete’s sake I even gave you a smiley face!
My point is, we shouldn’t give newbies false hope by not telling them we had years if struggle. They deserve to know the truth.
Heres another smiley face for you :slight_smile:

30

I’m aiming for 22

31

[QUOTE=“eddieb;716612”]Expect to lose money in year 1. Hope to move to break even or small profit year 2. Hope for consistent profits year 3. The harder you try to hit difficult targets, the more likely you will take unnecessary risks and blow your account. Take it easy, slowly slowly catchy monkey[/QUOTE]

Definitely agree with that. I am in year 15 and aiming for 22% PER MONTH which I know will come in for a lot of criticism (perhaps rightly so). I’m managing it and over $100K of other people’s money since March but let’s see how we go. I’m not feeling ****y in the slightest because I know where that leads.

Gary

32

Thats good stuff blackwave, keep rolling with it, and great profits for all!

33

Excellent! Great things come to those who wait

34

It’s [B]theoretically[/B] possible in that there’s no arithmetical or logical mistake in the detailed calculations and explanations you’ve set out in your post at the bottom of the second page. But the key word is very much “[U]theoretically[/U]”, because the reality is that the difference between winning an [B]average[/B] of two out of three trades per day and the actuality of that producing an average income of 1% per day (on the basis you explain) is an overwhelming one.

The reason for the huge difference between the theory and the practice is [I]variability[/I], which your theoretical calculation ignores.

You’re looking, in your theoretical example, at trading 3 times per day for 200 days of the year, so that’s 600 trades per year. With a strike-rate of 66.67%, over a series of 600 trades it would be [B]normal[/B] to have [U]at least one[/U] losing run (I’m not talking about actual consecutive losers, but just a run in which you have a string of losers followed by one winner, then another few losers followed by one winner, then yet another few losers followed by one winner again, and so on) [I][U]financially equivalent[/U][/I] to a consecutive losing run of 15 losers. And that effective “slow drawdown” of 15% will take you about 18 winning trades to recover from (because 18% of (100-15) is about the same as 15% of 100). And this will play havoc with your overall results, and always to the downside, because you have to regain 11% for every 10% you lose. (Again, I’m simplifying and we’re ignoring compounding for the moment.)

So the theory is good, but the reality will always be different (and worse).

“Nothing is impossible”, but I’ve never seen a consistent system which can easily trade 15 times per week at a reward-to-risk ratio of 1:1 which will produce a strike-rate of 70%, so all my instincts are saying that it’s “too much”.

This isn’t easy to explain briefly in a forum-post. If it helps, there’s a far better explanation in the (highly recommended) book “[I]Profitability and Systematic Trading[/I]” by Michael Harris (Wiley, 2008).

35

With the greatest of humility I think I can beat that strike rate. 80% over 398 trades since March. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Lazard/blackwave-monaco/1190323

However I can predict your reply, “It won’t last” and to some extent I agree but also I’m ready to hedge 80% of the trade upon a 30% draw down.

It’s an experiment in trading two markets in both directions at the same time. Stay tuned.

36

Almost all traders hope high return in forex business but it’s important for them to be realistic. The return of profit which you got from trading, it will depend on your capability in making good analysis, capability to take the risk and your emotion control. So, some traders hope to gain big amount of profit in percentage but they made mistake when they didn’t care with the risk in the transaction. Many traders blame forex when they lost big too but they didn’t understand the risk in trading itself. For me, it’s better to hope 1-5% daily profit as realistic percentage of profit to gain.

37

From the main discussions that are going on i can see that this is a theoretical assumption but when we are doing our trades in real then the market conditions do not favor the same.

So this is why many traders are not able to get the kind of returns they are expecting :slight_smile:

38

Hello all!

I urge all dreamy newbies to read the following article, which I posted last year on Forextown:

Trading Days in a Year – So How Many are There Really?

What it does is to break down the misconception that day traders can trade all year round, and takes into consideration all manner of unpredictable events… You WILL get sick, or your kids will; your internet or computer MAY let you down; you WILL need a holiday (for your sanity); there WILL be days where you cannot find anything to trade (believe it or not)…

So, anyone believing in the ‘1% (or whatever) a day’ as a 365-day straight line, please, I beg you, read the article and get a small reality check.

I am done :slight_smile:

39

Thanks for the Update :slight_smile:

Yes this is true that when we are doing our trades we do need some Break in between for getting fresh trading ideas :smiley:

40

Trying to figure out the return for the next 12 months(250 trading days) one should compare the return of the system for as many previous periods as possible.
Check the equity at risk for the previous periods and performance. If all variables stay the same expect the same results. But only if system is fully automated.If operator is involved: The Game becomes adventure. Prediction: Difficult.

There is no formula predicting your performance forward. It is trading itself showing how good operator you are which lets you draw some prediction for the next 12 months.

Just a reminder of how strong the compound interests are .
250 consecutive days making 1% a day on the equity with withdrawing profits daily= 250% ROI
250 consecutive days making 1% a day with reinvesting profits daily 1115% ROI
’ Progress, not perfection’
#tradesafely

41

Hello Imperfaction85

There is no way to calculate a year with events from a good day or even a good month. The best lesson I have learn is plan to lose so that you don't bid to high on any one bid. Break up your daily percent of 2% into four bids. If it is a lossing streak then strink your bids until you start winning or just take the day off. Track your account and look at the percentage for each month after a year see what the real numbers are.

First year or five think of the account as a new car payment and add deposits to help it grow faster. Do this for the first five years will add 20k or more plus your start up cost with 2% to 5% growth you have enough to withdraw cash monthy, and it will not hurt your account.

Farver58