I think it will probably form a spring today, one more down move to 1.42, coincide with 38.2% fibo retracement of the daily upmove (also demand sitting on the left of the chart)
What do you think about gu, Pete, i think it’s more prime for a swing postition…mm
I noticed that SM also bought euro during the NFP number.
Yep, a spring would be nice if it can get that low. We know price really doesn’t belong down here. G/U looks ok, 1.6420-50 has a bit of supply it will have to get through. oh, and what’s the deal with that thing we were doing? add me as a contact so I can pm you here, I won’t be on skype much this week…I’m on a half ass vacation lol.
Thx Pete, I sent you an email
I like it, but something tells me it wont get all the way down to that lower trend line, just a quick pop below support to 1.4220 area. A Wycoff spring like Luiz said (aka fake break out). We’ll see where big buy volume shows up, of course that’s the key.
Testing 1.43 now, a 61.8 fib. Reaction here will be telling.
Heh, yeah, you’re probably right. That’s more what I hope to see, since it would coincide with when I plan to wake up 
My prep always seems to reflect that…
hey Pete, do you mind pm me ur email address again, I sent you one but it said failure notice.
Beautiful Cable set up. 61.8 Retracement from previous day’s high low swing and MS1 Pivot. I’m not sure about a further move up, but price already filled the next potential resistance level so a first profit target has been met. It could be marking today’s low and the start of a potential 100plus pip range.
I’m already out though, let’s see how it goes.
Please clarify something for me, in your post, the green rectangles shows :
- the Sellers are distributing
or - the Buyers are accumulating ?
I scaled in some of my swing positions. Got them locked BE or in profit. Now for for some patience…and a bit of luck. :32:
Very high volume wide range down bars = strength in the background aka hidden demand aka the Smart Money accumulating a big fat long position without rocking the boat.
What defines a swing position?
I’m in too – currently up 60 pips or so, locked BE, target at the 50% fib of the big down move.
I’m targeting there as well, but I’m looking to hold some for higher. By swing I mean a trade that I’m looking to hold longer than intraday, and targeting pips in the multi hundreds.
Completely new to looking at volume (fairly new to forex). Have read this thread twice and most of MTMv3.
What I see in a 4hr chart of euro is a mushroom top where smart money was distributing everything they have accumulated during the long up trend, then on the “good” news of bin laden, there is a high volume wide spread down bar showing smart money using the news to allow the price to drop with no demand, collecting on there short positions made durnig the distribution.
Now the question is are we in a redistribution phase waiting to drop again another 700 pips, since smart money still has so many shares short, or are they taking profits now and allowing the herd to think the down trend will continue and this is actually accumulation ready for it to jump back up when there is no more supply.
If it is accumulation I think there will be more ranging before it heads back up. Smart money has a lot more shares to accumulate while riding on the euphoria of OBL.
Please critique!!! Right now I am waiting to see if price breaks the 23.6 fib and heads up to 50/61.8 or drops back down for either more accumulation or redistribution. My guess is the later.
Has nothing to do with Bin Laden. Forget ALL news and read the chart. SM has been accumulating for 6 months as I’ve said time and time again during.
The down move was some profit taking, and occurred with high volume wide spread bars. Those are easily reversed. Has nothing to do with no demand. Those bars are meant to cut through legitimate demand. It’s manipulation, price doesn’t belong down here, and we should see more accumulation imho. The USD is getting destroyed.
Welcome to the thread.
E/J 4hr. I’m thinking something like this…
Was thinking the same thing on EJ, except I drew my trend line from the high of April 11 to the high of April 28. Actually, it forms a perfect channel if you connect the low of April 18 to yesterday’s low.
Have to admit, I’m surprised the Euro had such a sell off today. Going to see how things end up then take a fresh look.
Me too. I’d like to know your input once we have a clearer view.
I do still see a background of accumulation in both pairs (Cable/Fiber), so as you pointed out a few posts back we’re most likely experiencing a correction.
Eur/usd will probably trade lower to the 1.3950 - 1.4000 area.
What I like about these corrections is that they’ve been cleanly technical in case someone had been looking to profit from them.
I missed today’s Cable sell off. Beautiful 50% level, pivot, a pin bar and an Average Daily Range completed all aligned for a beautiful short set up for at least a small range correction. The problem here is that volume didn’t show up convincingly enough to scream distribution at that particular level, so better off to stay away in not so hot conditions.
Anyway I’m still bullish in the long term until otherwise showed by volume.
My original analysis made me highlight a .50-.618 fib retracement rectangle from the long uptrend from the low in jan to the high. This put the .5 fib at around 1.390. My analysis was that big money has been accumulating for a long time and needs to take some profilts. The herd is all positioned long already and there shouldn’t be much demand allowing the price to drop and catch all the herd long. There was a long flat top where smart money was selling to the herd thus smart money is now short, they want to ride that down until the herd panics and starts selling all the shares they bought on the way up at a loss.
My predicition based on that is a final big down move to the 1.39 area, maybe as low as 1.37 (closer to 61.8 fib) then a period of accumulation at that level before marking back up.
That is my background analysis, now I am going to see if I can get some shorts in while it heads down. Watching out for climatic selling and stopping volume to show that we have hit the bottom.