That’s not stopping volume, it’s too low. It has to at least be in the area of the highest volume during the up move. It’s not even close. Look at the 1hr, it’s dead now.
Just because price didn’t go down, doesn’t mean they weren’t reversal patterns. Nothing is 100%. Knowing this, it is important to not enter unless you have a confirmation. Peter may not have entered those trades unless there was a medium volume red 5 minute candle.
On the other hand, maybe he would have entered all 3 and lost all 3.
Personally, I would not have entered any of them short. If anything I would have gone long on the break of the wick, since they were higher volume candles with a short wick.
In the end, as you’re learning, it’s one thing to interpret volume, trading it is quite another.
Looks like a low volume test of the top resistance, likely to trap breakout traders into going long.
Very interesting thread. Congrats to all involved.
Is the basic premise here… larger volume than the daily avg at a failure to break resistance… indicating sellers… and vice versa for failure to break support?
I’m having a hard time identifying tests as well, does this look like a valid one, or would it be more ‘valid’ if it was during the Euro/London/NY timeframe?
I think the second pin bar was the test, It had little volume, and got high, but closed low. It shot up, to see if buyers would freak out and buy, but no volume shows no one bought. The price came back down and showed no more buyers to take thier crappy bait, so they sell… the black down candle you have pointed out.
I think this is right, mr. vader is the exprt thought, I am still trying to understand it.
I think with less and less volume on ever up thrust at resistance for E/U we could see the short soon. I’m not sure, I think maybe thats correct.
I heard that futures volume is more realiable than tick volume for the longer term analysis: 4h, daily, weekly. Anyone recommend me which sites, brokers to look for futures volume data?
I use go market to look for volume? Is it realiable, pete, so far so good by the way
Hey guys, just popping in to let you know I wont be around much the rest of the week. I’ll try to answer posts when I can.
Don’t go pete
The FOMC has made trading dreadful yesterday and today. First time since yesterday, I can make a little sense with whats going on. They still haven’t released the minutes so anything can happen at this point but I’ve just noticed 2 “No Supply” bars on M5 E/U. One before and after the drop that contained buying.
Will post a chart when I get home.
Never worth trading when markets are trying to find an equilibrium after major news/figures.
although some swear by the volatility at these times.
not for me… far too much of a gamble in my book, i prefer the % on my side.
The first NS is a little iffy. While there was some volume increase behind it and its volume was less than the previous 2 bars, the bars were still relatively average with no clear direction BUT the following bar confirmed buying. The 2nd NS is where smart money left a footprint. After the ultra high volume widespread bar, the next bar confirmed buying. Then you have a NS on volume less than the previous 2 bars and a confirmation bar of that NS. Now its safe to say where smart money wants to go but its still murky water for new traders to just jump in all willy nilly.
I took half off at +20, rest at BE. BE got hit. Jumped in again after long wick with high volume (a bit risky). Took half off at +20, rest is still open with stop at BE.
We’re still having a tough time breaking through .3700 but it looks like we’re soaking up the supply.
That Volume was INSANE!
I’m quite upset that I left my trading for the day 1 or so hour before.
I had 2 stable trades simmering in the background, and managed to hit my TP, but I would have enjoyed watching that in action.
Maybe it’s because I am new, but I can’t seem to identify the trigger that says ROCKET.
(Besides the volume that is)
Peoples Thoughts?
The sooner you learn this business is the hardest way to make easy money… the sooner you will understand no such trigger exists…
oh, except in your minds eye.
Na buddy…
This is El Dorado…
(not really)
I’m not looking for an easy win, I know it doesn’t exist.
I’m looking for education, understanding and habit forming, so I can [B]minimise[/B] my losses, and trade in a “safer” manner.
This question was basically, “why did that happen?”
Because from what I understand so far, significant movements like that, especially with such volume in play, have a reason.
And if somebody knows, (even retrospectively), where else we can see this.
From what it looks like to me, this has been the absolute highest case of volume related price action witnessed for quite some time.
And I am not talking by a small margin either.
You’re not ever really going to catch the “1st” move. You just want to hop on when the time is right and most importantly, SAFE.
Try placing a line at the close of the most recent highest volume bar and see how price acts around it.
The FOMC had a 2-day meeting which closed at 2:15p EST (which is when they released the report). Smart money knows the news before us common folk do so you can see them position themselves in the market.
This ^
and if you are that new to this game… wait for the “insane” volume on non-farm friday
Slow day. I saw only one good place to trade, but I missed it. Was sleeping. How 'bout you guys? Any “luck”?