Today I had a few long positions slaughtered. When I got to my computer I missed the first stopping volume we saw on the down move, so I was really looking for a retrace into that area to go long. As I was watching the candles come up, I was really seeing a lot of strength (perhaps I was looking for strength more), however, now that I’m typing out my analysis, I’m seeing more weakness in the smaller time frames. Oh well, practise makes perfect! Any comments or criticism on my analysis would be appreciated.
5 minute:
1.) Looks like stopping volume. Candle closing up with long upper wick would suggest professional selling.
2.) Down bar on high volume with looong lower wick. Looking verrry much like smart money buying. Probably would have taken long once I saw the next up close.
3.) Up bar on narrow spread with high volume closing in middle. Professional selling into the surge of buying.
15 Minute:
4.) High volume narrow spread down bar. Looking for up close to go long
5.) Get the bullish close on mediumish volume. You can almost see range where buy orders were placed. Go long here.
6.) Up bar on narrow spread with high volume closing in middle. Professional selling into the surge of buying.
1 Hour:
7.)High volume narrow spread down bar. Looking for up close to go long.
8.) Get the bullish close on mediumish volume, go long here.
Hi Shyguy, welcome. You are on the right track. Like you said practice makes perfect. We shouldn’t be surprised that the up moves were short lived. I did have 2 small Long scalps after the drop that were profitable, but…well I already gave the reasons, background.
Good to mark the A/D zones, yes. I think the next step for you PP is to understand (maybe you already do) what you are looking for within those zones in order to define the phase properly. It’s true that for example stopping Volume on a down move, followed by an inside close, is the proper way start off Accumulation, but that’s no guarantee of any significant up move. As shyguy pointed out, you have to stay flexible because in that side ways range, sellers can show up again.
The good thing is, if we are always looking to buy low (and sell high) then we can still be profitable as sellers tend to show up at the TOP of the established range. When we see that we can get rid of our risk on the trade and consider that the Markup may be failing and it can BECOME redistribution.
Hi, thanks for your input Shyguy. Just to make things clear for you and me. Are you sure that this bar has narrow range (spread)? I always thought that when we measure range, wel always look at the HIGHEST and LOWEST points of that particular bar. In this case bar number 4 would have very HIGH range in fact.
Well this is the debate that constantly goes on in my head, what do I need to understand? That’s what I like about Wyckoff, it’s the more understandable version of Elliot Waves, where the question is always asked - Is this the impulse wave?
What I do know is that this discussion is helping me and I’m damned sure it helps many others too, and as Shyguy says you got to be flexible, see that little red trendline on my chart, some might say that it’s trying to catch a falling knife, I scalped a couple of trades off that, and some might say that sunshine follows thunder - tell that to the man who cannot shine.
You’re right SagiCZ. I think he meant that it has a small “body”. The range is obviously large. Thanks for pointing it out so we can be clear on terminology.
Now this I can help with, it’s not a sudden move, it’s only about 10 pips, it only looks like a ‘big’ sudden move because there’s only about 50 pip range on your chart, that is why I have my blue lines on my chart, they keep the range of the market in perspective.
And another but, what do you mean by breaking the current high, by one pip or two or ten? people often talk about using the big numbers - like 00 and 50 etc. but it doesn’t men 00 to the pip it means the 00 area, it sounds like a cop out, but as I said in one of my posts yesterday and others when the market hits a big number it doesn’t bounce off 00 exact (well actually it does but that’s another story which is just about tradeable too) it dips below then bounces back, I always maintain that knowing stuff like that and sorry to bore the forum again, but trading with the trend off doubles can make you profitable.
However - this thread gives meaning behind the madness as it were.
Oh, and keep calm, don’t bother trading today, keep an eye if you like, but more often than not, Fridays are a waste of time, and the signs are that it will be today, if you want to try something, trade into the range off extremities.
Someone on bp, I think it was Clint, noted that markets don’t freak out the way they used too, basically since 9/11. Yen strength right now could be the herd reacting to events, but the smart money computers are running on normal mode, slaughtering them with there own force.
“When and where the cycles take place is largely based on how many people they can get on the wrong side.”
“How you trade actually helps determine the very cycles that are causing you to lose.”
You mean you don’t waste your time, looking for whispers of who is selling what where and when and why and that stuff? You just look at what the price action? you do know that 400 years ago you would have been drowned like a witch for saying things like that?
You really think having an idea of where certain groups might be buying or selling and in what size is a waste of time? Institutional traders pay attention to this kind of stuff. I’m thinking that they do so for good reason. Dismissing it as a waste of time is pretty flippant.
PipBandit, I was hoping I’d prick your ears, I was being devious hoping I would get your goat, all in the interest of improving all our trading, after all you got more pips than me yesterday from the same kind of trade by doing what you do.
And again, I’m sorry if it seems I’m being repetitive, but it’s always the question of where to draw the line?
