Just for the record I don’t dismiss it. What I need to know is in the chart. That’s what I’ve come to trust. If it helps you, cool…and I don’t mind it discussed here.
In line with the current discussion I would like to add a little question. It has bothered me a bit, and it concerns fridays. If all one needs is in the charts so to speak, how come that doesn’t seem to play out on fridays? Afterall, the PA and volume should still reflect what happens in the market. Is it the fact that friday’s participation rate is a bit lower, thus distorting the signals and decreasing their efficiency?
Long from this Candle wick at bottom of this candle and also high volume seems like demand is there long at the close isit a valid trade ?? help
Cheeky sod 
Sure I don’t mean that you have to listen to every thing doing the rounds but you can make a judgement call. I don’t want to paralyze myself with too much data but I like to try and have an idea where participants might be active. That’s just me though. I like to have that level of comfort in my trading and I have a general interest in macroeconomics, etc. so it keeps it interesting for me when my brain is ticking over.
I like using volume for my short-term trades - it’s a handy visual trigger. It seems to chime fairly often with how things are going but there’s times when it probably won’t so much depending on who’s active in the market and why. I’m a little wary about broad terms like “smart money” - there’s a wide variety of market participants who are active in the market and they have their own objectives / requirements which may or may not differ.
It was a nice volume spike and with some signs of strength in the background, it would of been a small risk trade for me. After some volume comes in like that, I wait for the next bar to confirm my view. It looks like it more absorbtion than demand. If this is going to go up, they have to dry up all the supply. Me thinks it won’t happen till next week, but who knows. I think a move to .3820-.3830 area MIGHT be in the cards for today.
If we can’t beat this resistance at .3796 … Then we’re probably stuck in this range.
thanks for clarification its going good so far there is also confirmation volume on 15 and 5 mins chart which shows demand is there
Japan gets huge disaster, yen gets stronger. It was again like jackpot for SM.
There’s going to be stops above 1.3850 - certainly some at 1.3860. They’ve had a couple of goes at it but 1.3840 looks like the wall for now. Probably some short covering for the weekend going on too.
Pretty predictable. Same thing happened after the Kobe earthquake. It’s not smart money making a big play it was large institutions repatriating massive amounts of yen as quick as they could. Institutions that had money invested overseas where the yields are higher suddenly needed to bring the cash home for domestic use. Also, big insurance companies who have their funds invested outside of Japan on higher yield investments have to yank all the cash back home to pay for what is going to be a massive amount of claims.
The Yen would probably have strengthened even more but Japanese govt. was out actively buying dollars at 82.00 to stem the flow. We’ll see if they can hold it there.
Smart money in this case is anybody that bought yens. Herd was buying dollars and selling yens for sure. Agreed? I might not think very well right now… I have friends in Japan… Unable to contact them…
For those who like a punt - GBP/CHF has fallen to a pretty significant zone which has produced some good moves in the past. Main question is whether equities going to keep on dropping are turn around once more POMO goodness comes back next week. If it wasn’t for the weekend I’d probably enter with a small long - we’ve held above this level since January and tests have led to fairly significant bounces. Will keep an eye on it for Monday morning methinks.
I’ve no idea what the herd were doing. I think even they might have paused watching the price drop like mad. Part of the reason it dropped so hard and fast was that there was no buyers (or very few). Anyway, hope your friends are ok.
That looks too good to be true. Justa guess thou. But I would actually go short in there. My analyse is total GUESS! Based on nothing. 
I was in the newbie forum earlier but they don’t seem to give enough info.
I am confident in my trading system and can really tell when a correction is going on and when to get in/out of a trade. Would it be alright that I keep trading with no stop/loss? When I’m trading I’m always in front of my computer and rarely walk away.
I combine 4 different systems to determine the market trends : fibonacci, custom macd with histogram, custom moving averages, and candlestick formations. Although I am on a demo right now I consistently pull in wins with minimal loss.
Since I act as my own stop loss this would be alright to trade without the barrier? because i know the people that set up the market know everyones stop loss which could predetermine the market
Trading without sl is fastest way to go broke…
But if you can manually cut loss, it’s ok. Just cut it and never hope for it to reverse.
Small and fast loss is best loss
I can also figure out if the market is doing something that it shouldn’t and cut my loss that way. I also try and find the best entry point using the 15m MACD timeframe and the 1H to determine the long trend. I never try and enter a trade during a correction period… who knows where it’s going to go
So the justification (AFTER the fact) is that Japanese insurance, investors etc. need Yen to pay for this mess. That’s a good story.
My theory? Everyone and their mother bought against the Yen yesterday thinking it was a sure bet and the market is rigged to use the force of retail traders against them. Biz as usual.
Seriously, do they need all that Yen immediately, as the Tsunami is still rolling through towns? Or would they do as they always do…work in their trades over time to get the best price? To me it’s a smoke screen and again proves my Rigged Market Theory (RMT).
I would have some type of “safety” stop-loss… Incase of power failure, internet down, etc…
I have an iphone with mobile trading…and hopefully getting a tablet soon.
so I dont worrry about that.
Settle down young buck.