LOL - I suppose if you risked 3% and had a 20 Stop there was 18% here for ya on Friday 
3 Little Pigs Trading Strategy Weekly Report – 20-Oct-13 � Forex Useful - Only kidding !
If that is how you feel fine, but we shall see that.I`m building and expert advisor which has a lot of potential, and i give it the best of my work and all my knowledge to make it the best automatic system that i can.So maybe you could not make more than 10%, but dont generalize it and that doesnt mean that others cant.
“It always seems impossible until its done.”
(Nelson Mandela)
Good luck to you - I will keep it real !
Hi All
I have gone over my results from January to date. I wanted to see what happened if all trades were taken (previously I did not take trades when I was asleep) to see how the system might work if it was automated. These results look too good to be true although it has to be said there is no allowance for swap/rollover charges or for slippage or for gapping. That said over the 10 months we have results for its hoped negative effects will be countered by positive effects, a sweeping assumption maybe but I dont have a better assessment. The results will not be as good as presented here but I guess not far off.
The full results are in the attached spreadsheet in 3LPresults(2).zip.
In summary:
Positive months 10 (including October)
Negative months 0 (some only just; slippage and swap charges could change that)
Average gain per month 289 pips
A notional £1000 pot on 1 Jan 2013 would now be worth £12,365
All the best
3LP results(2).zip (53 KB)
That’s very impressive (unbelievably impressive) - Has anyone checked these perhaps?
Oh my God, It seems that its good system…
Thanks guys for sharing this system to us here…
Thanks agoen82 for looking at the figures, if anyone else would like to check them out I will be grateful for their assessment.
All the best
agoen82 did you verify the above manually using the indicator and the daily/weekly confirmation or just the indicator on the 4 hour chart?
Hi Four Candles,
I have gone through EUR/USD backtesting, and my results look very different, compared to your spreadsheet. How exactly did you do it (ie display/construct the historic MAs?) Could you give us a screengrab of a trade eg the EUR/USD on the 16th Jan?
I used the 4H 34 SMA on Close, and then the 4H 125, and 4H 1650, for Daily and weekly historic MAs (I do appreciate these are not precise representations of D21, and W55 MAs) If anyone knows a better way to do it please do share.
Many Thanks, Dave
How different was your EURUSD compare ? xxx pips vs xxx pips wise ?
Hi All
Have been going over the spreadsheet, it looks as though some errors crept in when I was sorting the data. Have checked 5 of the 6 pairs and it is still stubbornly profitable. Hope to complete the exercise today, Saturday UK, and will post asap.
All the best
Stubbornly profitable sounds good, look forward to the revised results and thanks for your efforts
Attached is the complete updated results for the six pairs I am following. It shows a profitable system so far, I can’t help wondering what I have missed! on the basis “if it seems too good to be true it probably is” so I will appreciate scrutiny of the results just in case.
All the best
3LP results(3).zip (63.3 KB)
Hi Dave
A screen shot of the EUR/USD for 16th Jan is attached. As you will see I use three windows for the 4 hour, daily and weekly. With auto-scrolling off I can go back to Jan on the four hour and look for candles crossing and closing on the 34 sma. The daily and weekly charts confirm the trend and thus a trade either long or short. I only take one trade in any one pair at the same time and each trade runs to target or stop whichever happens first. The only exceptions being on a Friday when any current trades are closed at midnight. The process starts again on Monday at 00:00. I ignore news including NFP on the assumption good days will equate to bad days. Thats about it, if theres anything I’ve missed or can be improved please let me know.
All the best
Have you checked this against fourcandles latest results, say for EUR/USD as perhaps this could be made into an EA/backtest - I notice fourcandles return is still a healthy £15,000 from £1,000 over the year!
Let’s just say a return that fourcandles came up with is unheard of. If an EA could confirm those results that would be great.
In the mean time Buy trades are setting up on the 4 hour USDCAD and USDJPY for 1 pm Eastern Time, 1800 GMT I believe. Higher time frames on those is confirming.
Mike
Long period MA’s really do work, i made a few tests on them, but i still would not trade such system since the drawdowns will be tremendously big like over 40% , so thats the disadvantage of these systems.I would still remain at the intraday trades.
Four Candles,
Thanks for the work backtesting. From your description it sounds as if you were mechanical in your rule following.
I’d like to ask; During your backtesting 1) While price was closing over or under the 34SMA, did you enter on every qualified setup? In other words I’m trying to determine a choppy market drawdown. 2) Did you re-enter on the next candle in the same direction after a win as long as all entry criteria was satisfied?
Thanks.
Only one trade is taken in any pair at any one time, the trade runs to conclusion either target or stop. This helps to minimise choppy markets. I would enter on the next candle if entry criteria was met. The back test assumes every trade available was taken, in practice I would limit this to 3 trades if using 3% for a maximum exposure of about 10% or 5 trades if using 2%.
As you say these results are unheard of, so good measure of scepticism wont go amiss. Some errors have emerged which I have corrected, I’m afraid human error is always a possibility but despite this the results are profitable and seem to merit further testing.
Best regards
