Thanks for the update Phil, much appreciated, its been a tricky 2 months with no real big trends on any of the 8 currencies on the 4 hour timeframe - Watching Gold at the moment too as it looks to move to a Long term Buy trend on the Weekly - Cheers
From two weeks ago, the AUDUSD (27/2 0:00) closed last week for -71, the USDCHF (27/2 16:00) closed +11, cable (27/2 16:00) closed -40, EURUSD (28/2 8:00) closed -7, EURJPY (28/2 12:00) closed -60.
Last week there was GBPUSD (4/3 12:00) loss -30, GBPUSD (5/3 12:00) loss of -18, USDCAD (3/3 16:00) loss of -16, and EURGBP (3/3 0:00) loss of -14.
However, the week turned round and by the end USDJPY (4/3 16:00) had reached +150, EURJPY (4/3 8:00) had reached +350, EURUSD (6/3 8:00) had reached +160, and USDCHF (6/3 12:00) was +60.
I guess this shows that the smaller losses can be more than made up for with the big winners.
Cheers Phil, still going quite well then, would be nice if four candles could provide an update on the fixed stop/target approach on the basis he will be taking similar losses but not making such big gains on the winners.
EURJPY from 4/3 8:00 came back to trailing stop for +235
USDJPY from 4/3 16:00 came back to trailing stop for +62
EURUSD from 6/3 8:00 came back to trailing stop for +125
USDCHF still running
thanks phil, i wonder, how does that compute to % return, 235 pips on a 4 hour chart can be, depending on stop, 2% or 20% (if you had a 23 pip stop) and risk 2%
I am out of the Gold trade now as per the weekly report waiting for a new entry in line with the weekly, daily, can’t resist trading Gold 
Hi All
Been a while since I posted here, have been a bit distracted with other projects. The fixed target approach based on 6 pairs performed well in 2013 but suffered its first loss in January 2014 using those 6 pairs which raised the question of pairs to trade the original three little pigs method traded 8 and when I checked the usd/chf and aud/nzd for 2013 they were both profitable and would have produced a profit for the system in Jan and Feb 2014. So to date for 2014 based upon vantage fx charts and 8 pairs the results to date are:
Jan 2014 +215.3 pips
Feb 2014 +39.4 pips
Mar 2014 +23.4 pips to date
Better results might have been obtained from a trailing stop strategy and certainly some good opportunities appear to be had. However whilst the opportunities appear to be clear the stop loss required to avoid being stopped out could be quite large and at some point would come into effect, this effect is not so clear and the effect over the longer term could reduce the profitability of many trades. I have not assessed the effect of this but would welcome suggestions for a trailing loss strategy to assess alongside the fixed target strategy that so far is profitable for 14 months in a row.
Happy trading
3LP Fixed Target20140321.pdf (39.1 KB)
So a profit every month last year and also this year, are you trading this on a live account?
I believe he’s trading it on a live account yup. Even then, sometimes it is not that the trading methodology is wrong and wouldn’t work on a live account, it is simply the difference in how our emotions react when trading a live account that cause it to be unprofitable, haha.
Yes I have been trading this on a live account. Needless to say I choose January to kick it off and incurred a loss but that was inevitable at some stage and also it encouraged me to look at the pairs I was trading. The outcome was the change I mentioned above.
I have a USD/CAD buy trade opening on the close of the 12:00 candle (system time - VantageFX) stopped out during 16:00 candle for -30 pips putting March to date at a slight loss of -6.6 pips
Thanks for the feedback and also for your updates, they are greatly appreciated, hope March ends positive for you.
Only two trades this week, a USD/CAD on Tuesday 25th which stopped out for -30 and a USD/JPY today 28th closed at 21:00 system time for +41.2 which leaves March currently in profit at 34.6 pips, lets see how Monday closes out March.
Good luck all.
Hi four candles
Thanks for your updates and backtest results. Im sure its been very useful for many including myself.
Just wanted to ask if you were to perform a back test analysis of the period you have been trading live using the same back test method to calculate 2013 prior year results, i assme your calculated backtest results would match those of your live trading months?
I would just like to confirm the accuracy of the historical back test results, and that your back test method would mirror your live trading results currently in the last few months.
Thanks again for your analysis and updates so far, and hope your trading continues to be successful!
Rob
Glad this is helpful. The back test results are based on ETX Capital charts for 2013 and VantageFX for 2014. All possible trades are assumed to be taken, depending where you are the spreadsheet can be sorted to exclude overnight trades. There is no allowance for spread, you could increase the target by 2 or 3 pips I guess, usually successful trades achieve this. So far based upon 8 pairs there have been 15 consecutive profitable months, not bad for a system that only needs checking every four hours.
All the best
Hello all, I am new to this thread and just finished reading through it all. I tried to see if I could reproduce similar results to those of Four Candles ( thanks for all that work by the way) so I randomly chose AUD/USD pair from Sept 1 2013 to Dec 31 2013. Trade # 193 is a sell for the AUD/USD on Sept 24th. I checked charts from 2 different brokers and the entire daily candle for that day is above 21 moving average so no trade should have been signaled. According to my charts, a daily candle would not touch and close below the 21 until the 29th. The next signal on the 4hour would have hit 30 pip stop loss. I am wondering if my charts are that different or if I am missing something.
Hi dhmpsn
Thanks for your post, I have had a quick look and it appears the AUD/USD on this occasion is not a trade, I do welcome scrutiny of the results to show up any errors and confirm the validity of the method. Have you checked any other results and what did you find? After deleting the AUD/USD from 24/9/13 the trading for September 2013 is in positive territory.
Has anyone considered how to manage checking every 4 hours ? Does it matter that we have to sleep and maybe miss a candle ?
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Hi Kneesup, we could do with an EA which would monitor for and then place the trades, not sure how easy this would be to create though, beyond my comfort zone.
Two new trades yesterday:
AUDUSD 9353 long from 22/4 04:00, stopped at 9338, 13 (40+11/4) behind the MA 9351, for -15
USDCAD 11011 long from 22/4 12:00, stop at 10995, 10 (28+11/4) behind the MA 11005
There was also a new long signal on EURJPY from 22/4 8:00 at 14147, although I’m still in the trade from 16th April
New trades:
AUDUSD 9305 short from 23/4 00:00, stop at 9359, 13 (40+11/4) behind the MA 9346
EURUSD 13817 long from 23/4 8:00, stop at 13807, 9 (27+9/4) behind MA 13816
Hi harmonic, thanks for the updates - An EA would indeed be the way forward! I also have these two trades.