I think I’m going to wait and short it. I’m still hoping to get a difinitive answer on what would be the best C point for this trade.
TMB says that you should try and use the first swing to find your BC leg, which would have hit the peak at 1.2718 (8/24 10:00) and gone down to pt C at 1.2616 (8/24 16:00), but then I noticed that it goes higher than B (8/25 4:00) and comes back down lower then C (8/25 7:00).
So my question has been, do I change my “C” point and recalculate for convergence or being that the pattern is still valid do we ignore that movement being that it didn’t break past X or A?
According to TMB you should be using the the first swing high after A. This would mean that the B point would be 2 candles after your A point - not where you have drawn it.
Pattern invalid, and I reopened it up at 06 vs at 20, and took a pretty big loss. Sighs. If I would of stayed in I would of closed at 2700 for a 20 point profit, but instead I ended up with a very large loss because I reopened it, and I did not respect my stop. Rookie mistake.
I have to admit I don’t totally understand the way you project your D points when I look at your charts and youtube vids (I haven’t read the whole thread though). But that’s ok with me, I’m very happy with my analysis and couldn’t be happier. That’s not to say, your postings have really been insightful and extremely helpful, especially in the last few weeks with less success on the smaller timeframes.
Anyways, so I’m still in this GBPCHF trade. I scaled in/out for quick profit when it was bouncing around the D pt. Remaining holdings are +190 at the 2nd interim profit target at 1.6050s, still looking for a move back above 1.64s.
Not bad for the past 24 hours, it may yet get there by Friday close…
Symmetry looks perfect to me! On any other pair, I may have taken it - ie. the only major concern is spread of this pair, so your risk/reward may be less than favourable - your call though.
Good point Inspira. As it happens, the price faded out before hitting the D point, so I didn’t take the trade when it did eventually hit.
I like price action to be a little more direct, especially on the lower time frames.
Also forgot to draw it on an ‘Ask’ chart, so here it is again The convergence isn’t as tight as the I was first led to believe (albeit on the wrong chart, ie a ‘Bid’ chart), but there’s only 3 pips between the 1.618 of the XA leg and the 2.000 of the CD leg, so still within acceptable levels.
The convergence isn’t as tight as the I was first led to believe (albeit on the wrong chart, ie a ‘Bid’ chart), but there’s only 3 pips between the 1.618 of the XA leg and the 2.000 of the CD leg, so still within acceptable levels.