PAttern i drew a few days ago on 30 min chart. Clearer on 60 min chart though. worked out nice
Hi pbylina,
The D point should be your entry point, so therefore your stop loss should be beyond this point.
You are not plotting your fibs right. There are three fib measurements to make, and you have the first one right (measuring from X to A). Second fib you should plot from B to A, and then move this across to C so that the fib level that was at A is now at C. Third fib is plotted from B to C. All in all this gives you three numbers (levels) that go to make the PRZ, and show where the D (and your entry level) will possibly be.
I tried to upload a chart, but for some reason I can’t right now. But your chart looks good (or should I say the pattern, as the fibs are wrong 
).
The B point is the defining factor of these patterns. The B on this chart is just over the 0.382 XA, which would suggest a bat and a D point at the 0.886XA. There is a pattern called the Alternate Bat which suggests a reversal at the 1.13 XA, but this requires a B point of less than 0.382 XA. But remember a little discretion is often required when trading any strategy.
Now when the 0.886 level didn’t prove to be the reversal point, then I would be watching the 1.13 level, and as it happens, it has reversed from this level, for now anyway.
To establish my profit target, I plot a fib from A to D and mark the 0.382 of this measurement, and this gives me my profit target.
Hope this helps, but Carney’s books certainly will
Hey pbylina,
I mentioned the three fibs give you the three levels of the PRZ. On the chart we’ve been looking at, these levels would be the 1.13XA, the 2.24CD, and the 2.618BC. Now while TMB looks for tight convergence areas, bare in mind that Carney patterns can involve slightly bigger PRZs.
E/U 4hr … we will see what happens with this one …
The stop loss doesnt have to be big right? Like say 2-5 pips? Because if it passes more then 2 pips passed D then it means it was a failed pattern or it is a fake D?
What does PRZ stand for? Projected R… Z…
Do you use the .382 retracement of AD as target for all patterns?(I guess it is a high success rate? Kind of like T.M.B’s 30 pips a day stradegy?)
And yes you helped a lot!
Thanks!
-pbylina
Hey pbylina,
I usually put my stops around 20 pips or just passed the next fib level. I never take a loss greater than 30 pips though. But you have to give the trade a little room to manoeuvre, so 2 - 5 pips is a little tight. And just because the price goes slightly beyond, or even if the candle closes slightly beyond the PRZ does not necessarily negate the pattern.
PRZ stands for Potential Reversal Zone.
And yes, I normally use the 0.382AD as my profit target on all patterns.
It’s always a good idea to keep an eye on price as it enters the PRZ, and this should give you an indication as to whether the level will hold or not.
Likewise keep an eye on price when you are in profit. There’s no sense in holding on for the 0.382XA if price puts in some sort of reversal pattern to go against you, say a candle pattern of some description, or a trendline that looks like it might hold and prevent price going further in your favour.
Hey Pleiadian,
I noticed on your chart that your XA fib has levels at: .236, .382, .500, .618, .707, .786, .886, 1.00, and 1.13. Then your other 2 fibs (purple and blue) only have 0.00 then it jumps to 1.00 and it also doesnt include the 1.13 as in the XA fib?
P.S. Is that trading platform Marketscope/FXCM? Why is it so popular? The drawing tool looks really nice.(compared to MT4’s)
Hey pbylina,
I use MarketScope. It’s not the best charting package in the world, but it serves my purposes quite well. I’m not a fan of MT4 I must admit.
As for the fibs, that’s one of the tools MarketScope does quite well. You can add or take away any levels you want. I’ve got my fibs set up so that all the levels are there, then it’s just a case of selecting the levels I want to appear on the fib I am currently plotting.
I don’t plot any levels between 0 and 100 on the CD fibs because they are simply not needed, as the D point must be at least 100 of this fib. The BC fib doesn’t need to show any levels below (bearish pattern)/above (bullish pattern) the CD 100. If anything it just saves a little clutter.
Daily E/U. Nice convergence on Daily - 8 pips plus confluence of S/R … Long way to go though but would support any smaller bullish patterns on the way.
this was a failed trade. Convergence was 30ish pips lol. Ill Stick to 10 pips or less from now on (D2)
Pattern is now invalid since d leg has passed above c point…makes for a better pattern though
By pbylina at 2010-09-24
It weird because I dont have convergence where you have it on your chart.(1.272BA moved to C and .768XA). Instead I have convergence at (61.8BA moved to C and .50XA)…Maybe the true D will be there, as it blew threw my stop loss last night.
Peace
-pbylina
the convergence for the cd leg must be 1.000 or more … yours is 61.8
hi all …can someone send me a copy of this book Harmonic trader?
i have huge colection of pdf books myself so if anyone is looking for something please email me…my e mail : radofx @ gmail
lots of paterns are forming for the nezt week…good hunting to all
Cash you can download it from the guys website for free
Something different for you guys … 50Fib and 61% FE
green= sell
blue = limit
Thats what im going for. Gonna take the.382 retracment of CD.(350 pips) Wonder how long its gonna take…Maybe a week?
Spotting a butterfly. Who knows maybe Sunday will be a huge correction/reversal like 09/12 (Sunday) was.
http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/937/possiblebutterfly.png
http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/9530/butterflya.png
60 Minute, EURUSD.
For the last few days, I have been right on with these AB=CD patterns on EURUSD, if anyone wants to see, I have a real nice one. I didn’t trade, but it would have spotted a 160+ move. I also called the bottom on the EURUSD 12705. I owe it all to simple technical analysis: fibonacci numbers, ab=cd. To bad I did not trade, it’s moved nearly 800 points in two weeks.
it will probably take a few days … keep in mind that this pattern is not a Gartley or any ABCD pattern … its just convergence of fib ratios. 50 and 618