Hi dbrock,
I follow Scott Carney’s rules with specific Fib retracements, so personally I don’t see a Gartley formation.
However, I do see a Bat pattern - it doesn’t have great symmetry (so hard to spot), but the ratio’s are there.
D = same 886 / 1618 confluence on your chart.
Check out the pic for an idea of where the B/C points would be.
Cheers,
inspira
Hi hellogoodbye4201,
If you’re just starting out, I would definitely look for the “perfect” setups. The patterns do take a while to get used to and ID/trade, and you must build a good foundation before the “castles in the sky start to take shape” IMHO. 
I do trade variations, but it’s taken me many months to get here. As with anything, it all starts with the basics.
Cheers,
inspira
can anybody tell me about the accuracy of these patters and how many percentage of time they get false signals?
sorry for my recent absence from the chat room guys, im on jury service!! 
looking forward to picking it up again with you guys soon! happy trading!
First off, I would implore anyone with the same thoughts to ask a better Q!
PLEASE.
Seriously, would you rather be right or would you rather make money? (such a cliche but sooo true!)
Because once you get down to it, trading is purely a numbers game, and it’s as much about losing as it is about winning.
What if I told you I’ve had 1000+ losing trades this year. What would you think?
Then added, if I had 1000+ more I would’ve made twice as much. What would you think then?
Numbers… it’s all numbers. As long as you have a system/method with a positive expectancy/edge ratio over a large enough sample size with appropriate position sizing you just gotta keep “putting in those quarters”. And over time, the probabilities will work themselves out.
I’m not saying win % is not important (psychologically it often is, at least to start with), but it’s just a small bit of a big pie. There’s a myriad of other statistics that are equally and sometimes more important, and they all need to be factored in.
Off my soapbox now…
inspira
Hey guys i found another pattern forming.
this time on the EUR/CHF 1 hour
Sorry about the bad quality of the last pic.
I have been given a warning for “soliciting” my contact -_-… So I will re-post my msg without infringing the rules.
hi TMB
how do you want the file sent?
do you want it uploaded here?
cheers
Hello all, I know that I’ve promised you guys that I would show you my new and improved trading technique. In addition to giving an elaborate explanation into why the market had behaved the way it did during the summer and its current behavior this fall. Unfortunately I’ve been extremely busy here managing my current account and re-structuring my trading platform (students, co-workers etc…).
Also, I have been preparing my self physically and mentally for a major account that I will be managing in a few days. As a result, once the deposit goes through I will begin blogging my progress with the account on the thread just as I have done in the past with smaller accounts. Furthermore the selected few that I have selected as my students will now have the opportunity to see me work with this account live (Screen sharing, signals for entries, and live feedback).
*For those of you who would like the opportunity to be my student and participate in these trading sessions (10pm - 12pm est, 8Hr TMoney || 8Hr HMoney), please feel free to send me a detailed Analysis on one of the following pairs: USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD. You may send me the analysis using the methods provided by the site, PM, thread post, etc.
[B]Analysis requirements:
*Why do I require such a thorough analysis of a pair in order to participate? This is because of the fact that I am searching for skilled and disciplined individuals to add to my trading floor in the near future. Apart from the fact that I will be “mentoring” and giving away trading entries for free in real time.
*Please Note that not every one who submits an entry will participate and only a select few will be chosen. As a result, please give your 100% and do not even bother submitting an analysis that does not meet the above requirements.
What did you mean when you said “Prediction of price range for the pair within the next 3-4 months”? Whats the price range going to be between the months of January and February?
Thanks!
my Prediction of price range for the pair within the next 3-6 months…
ot the weekly chatr there is a huge gartley forming /yellow/and i believe we will be in the forming of the CD leg for the next several months…also the tendency of the US to weeken the dolar confirms the direction for weak dolar against the pound
on the weekly chart
in the midle of May we see a uptrend started because of the completion of a bullish gartley222 pattern/blue/,wich is also a part of the bigger pattern/yellow/
the down trend from begining of august to begining of september is a result of a bearish butterfly patternt/red/ forming its C point…also the same butterfly/if this is the true C point/ have the same convergence point with the bigger gartley222 pattern,/yellow/wich confirms that lvl is going to be a strong resistance point in the future
seeing patterns forming one after another in all time frames in the movement of this pair makes me believe the pair mooves in a harmonic manner …and that the bearish gartley /yellow/and bearish butterfly /red/confirming its completition, are goint to be the reason the gbp/usd trend will stay bullish for the next several months-
also knowing the major fib levels from the weekly/daily charts helps me analising the patterns forming on the smaller time frames and eliminating fakeouts
By radofx at 2010-10-20
and still this is a forecast…one of many…
posting it feels …weird:confused:
mmmhmmm yup
[B]Analysis requirements:
Here is my analysis on eur/usd
EUR/USD
Weekly
On weekly chart price has risen slightly above an ab=cd 100% level and created a NB or PB indicating a reversal. This ab=cd has occurred after a very strong down move that itself was a 786 retracement of another move prior to that. As it was a 786 retracement we can expect price to move to the 127 extension level which at present has not been met and gives a long term interim price target of 1.1327. We also have another ab=cd 100% extension that meets at 1.1372 which gives very good confluence for that price area.
Daily
The daily chart has just completed a bearish butterfly at 1.4181 which is just above the ab=cd 100% level mentioned in the weekly section at 1.4047. However we also have a 1.618 level from the AB swing at 1.4232 and a 200 fib level at 1.4079 from the BC swing giving a good area for a reveral. We do also have the 707 retracement level at 1.4184 from a prior high giving another level in the same area.
The daily chart also gave a key reversal day on the 15th of October and price has now broken down thru the daily trendline
H4
After price broken thru the daily trandline we have just completed a bearish gartley pattern with retraceents to the 618 and 786 which also formed the right should of a bearish crown or head and shoulder pattern.
All the above gives indications that it is highly probable that the eur/usd is just commencing another significant leg down that will continue for many months.
Fundamentally the next stage of downturn is about to hit and althought it will effect many parts of the world it will be prodominately be the US, euro zone and the UK. During this downturn the US dollar will again become strong against the majority of currencies and therefore the eur/usd pair will be in a decline for the next several months at least and this next downleg with be more fierce that the prior one.
Prediciton of price in the next 3-4 months is quite difficult as this down move will be very strong so I would expect to be somewhere around 1.2000 or lower
Regards
Spiros
hi Spiros…i think the 4h gartley you have posted is not right/by the rules of the trade im using/…im not trying to be critical here…just adding my view…cool analysis btw…this is what i see…its too early to call the C point true bit still perfect convergence with the huge daily gartley…i have been waiting for this pattern to form for weeks
By radofx at 2010-10-22
Hey CashDemon.
According to carney’s rules, a Butterfly’s D point must be at 1.27XA. Not trying to be critical either. I agree that its too early to be positive that its a true C.
Hi Cash,
Some folks use the term gartley to cover a variety of patterns. However if you split the patterns up into bats, crabs etc then you’ll find that the true gartley has only a few key elements to it. One is a 618 retracement from X-A to B and then D is at the 786 retracement of X-A … This information is from Scott Carney at the harmonic trader website.
We’re all working towards to same goal so no problemo.
Spiros
One thing I forgot to mention in my analysis above it that it is also possible that we will have another leg up prior to the down turn. One possible reason why it may not start down in earnest yet is that it looks like the leg down so far on H4 is only an A-B-C which indicates a corrective move prior to the final leg up and then we come down. If this is the case then obviously my price precidition will be off somewhat as it will depend on how long this last leg up takes to complete. Sometimes these final legs can extend further than what we expect and therefore delay the move down. There are alternative patterns on the daily such as a bearish butterfly around the 1.4450 level which gives room for another leg up.
Spiros
nice one guys…The Truth is born of arguments…
[B]EUR/JPY – Technical Overview[/B]
[U]
[B]During The Summer[/B][/U]
The pair was forming an Alternate Bat pattern from 7/28 to 10/7. From 7/28 to 8/24 it was in a downward trend because it was forming the XA leg. From 8/24 to 8/30 it was in an uptrend and formed the AB leg. From 8/30 to 9/8 it was forming the BC leg and during this period price retested the B point and formed a double top. From 9/8 to 10/7 the pair was in an uptrend forming the CD leg. Point B retraced to in between .382XA and .500XA. From this information I can eliminate the Gartley(B must be .786XA). The Butterfly(B must be .618XA). And the Deep Crab(B must be between .886 and 1.00XA). I am left with 3 possible patterns. A bat(D point is .886XA). Alternate bat(D point is 1.13XA). And a Crab(D point is 1.618). I then ploted my second pair of fibs from B to C. And third set from B to A and move that to C. I then look for convergence at the possible D points. In this case there was not that good of convergence at the .886XA and really bad, if not any at the 1.13XA. Price blew threw the .886XA. Price did not reach the 1.13XA but retraced at the 2.618BC. This confused me as to why price did not reach 1.13XA but still retraced. So I then got an idea to redraw my fibs from instead of the highs to the lows, to the opens and closes. To my surprise there was a nice convergence at the 1.13XA and price retraced perfectly after hitting all three fibs in the PRZ.
[U][B]Current Behavior [/B][/U]
The pair was forming an Alternate Bat pattern from 10/18 to 10/19. From 10/18 0:00 to 11:00-UTC the pair was in an uptrend forming the XA leg. From 10/18 11:00 to 14:00-UTC the pair was in a downtrend forming the AB leg. From 10/18 14:00 to 16:00-UTC the pair was in an uptrend forming the BC leg. And finally from 10/18 16:00 to 10/19 15:00-UTC the pair was in a downtrend forming the CD leg. The B point retraced to in between .382 to .500 XA. From this information we can once again eliminate the Gartley(B must be .786XA). The Butterfly(B must be .618XA). And the Deep Crab(B must be between .886 and 1.00XA). And we are also left with the same three patterns. A bat(D point is .886XA). Alternate bat(D point is 1.13XA). And a Crab(D point is 1.618). I Plot my second and third sets of fibs and look for convergence. Convergence at .886XA was not bad but it got blown threw. Convergence was o.k. at 1.13XA but once again got blown threw. There was nice convergence at 1.618XA with the 3.618BC. Price retraced after hitting these two fibs, completing the Alternate Bat pattern.
[U][B]PREDICTION OF PRICE RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3-4 MONTHS[/B]
[/U]
My prediction for price range, between 1/20/2011 and 2/20/2011, is that price will be between 127.00 and 132.00. My reason for this is because I found a Reciprocal AB=CD pattern on the monthly chart. I plot my fibs from A to B. The C retraced to 1.27AB.Therefore the BC projection should be at .786. I drew a line from A to B and moved it to C. The end of the line touched the .786 projection nicely. But I do not think AB=CD patterns are as strong as patterns that contain X’s, so this pattern might not complete. I drew a vertical line at 1/20/2011 and a second at 2/20/2011. The CD projection line crosses these two lines. The price range should be between these two crossings. But it also depends on if the CD leg will move at the same rate at which the AB leg moved.
[U][B]Fundamental Analysis[/B][/U]
[B]8/23 to 8/24[/B] – The Euro dropped about 280 pips vs the Yen because of euro zone data that made people concerned over the economy.
[B]8/26 to 8/27[/B] - The Euro rose 175 pips against the Yen because people sold the Yen because of growing speculation that the Japanese government was going to soon intervene in the forex market.
[B]9/7[/B] - The Euro dropped 200 pips against the Yen because BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa’s said, “While I am watching market moves very closely, monetary authorities cannot control foreign exchange rates”.
[B]9/15[/B] – The Euro rose about 367 pips against the Yen because Japan conducted its first foreign exchange intervention in six and a half years.
